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| Sui: Should you stay or should you go? https://gladerebooted.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11687 |
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| Author: | Aethien [ Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Sui: Should you stay or should you go? |
Is Sui here? I heard that banking and finance guys will be very busy Thursday night, so he may be busy now. I think I should know which way you lean, Sui, was just curious what you think. |
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| Author: | Müs [ Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Brexit FTW! |
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| Author: | Aethien [ Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Heh, I probably should have done a poll ... |
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| Author: | Elmarnieh [ Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Woo hoo Brexit! |
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| Author: | Talya [ Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sui: Should you stay or should you go? |
At least short term, the "Brexit" vote is going to tank everyone's economies. Most especially the UKs, but everyone else, too. Including us here in North America. Long term, I believe you'll see the breakup of the UK entirely as Scotland and Northern Ireland leave over this, and a much stronger Russian Federation. This is basically the death throes of the remains of the British Empire. Vladimir Putin is celebrating with lots of vodka right now. |
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| Author: | Aethien [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Huh. Why do you say that this will leave us with a much stronger Russian Federation? |
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| Author: | Talya [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: |
Aethien wrote: Huh. Why do you say that this will leave us with a much stronger Russian Federation? Economically, this will weaken Russia's biggest economic adversaries, as the European Union and particularly England suffer for the deal. Militarily, this will weaken Russia's single largest rival in Europe, as the UK collapses into its component parts. |
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| Author: | Kairtane [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sui: Should you stay or should you go? |
Talya, why do you keep saying England, Scotland, Wales, etc? England didn't do anything, the UK withdrew from the EU. |
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| Author: | Talya [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sui: Should you stay or should you go? |
Kairtane wrote: Talya, why do you keep saying England, Scotland, Wales, etc? England didn't do anything, the UK withdrew from the EU. Because Scotland and Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to stay, and they have very powerful independance parties/movements. Sinn Fein is already calling for a referendum on leaving the UK to join Northern Ireland. The SNP, having lost a referendum on independence a few years ago, will bide its time to see where this is going before they use this as a mandate to call another. I'd put 60-40 odds on there not being a United Kingdom in a decade. England will be using Wales as a landfill, while Northern Ireland will be reunified with the Republic it shares an island with, and Scotland will be independant (and possibly an EU member.) I'm not a big fan of the EU bureaucracy. My main concern is that the UK may not be stable enough to survive the breakaway. |
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| Author: | Kaffis Mark V [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
I'm not sold on this being a disaster for the UK. Yes, it's going to cause some unrest in Northern Ireland and Scotland as a point of division... But Brexit isn't going to happen overnight, and I don't think, as you point out, that Scotland will feel justified in turning around and doing a new referendum so soon while all of that work is pending. I think, instead, they'll want to retain their voice in the process and try to guide it internally. Over the next couple years, I think the EU will weigh how much it needs the UK to retain fairly free access to the common marketplace vs. their desire to make an example out of punishing the UK to squash any other members from leaving. And the fact of the matter is pretty simple: the very reason that it was so contentious a vote (and that the EU is enormously angry at the notion of losing the UK) is that they need each other economically. Germany needs to sell its industrial output to the UK, and the UK needs free access to the financial market the EU provides. Watch how much pressure the German automotive industry puts on the EU to come up with a permissive and permeable free trade agreement, for instance. This was a referendum on immigration, the migrant labor market, and the utter mess that has been the Syrian refugee crisis. The UK is somewhat insulated, fiscally, from the mess that is some members' economies due to the UK retaining sovereign currency. But their mix of a well-recovered economy and strong social services means that when the rest of Europe shirks their due diligence on capturing and distributing refugees as agreed upon, the UK, Germany, and Scandinavia end up becoming the "win-the-lottery" destinations that Syrians have been trying to sneak their way into for over a year now, and I think what we're seeing is that the Brits are getting tired of that, along with legal foreign labor freely coming in to scoop up jobs in the thriving urban economies and drive up housing costs. The unemployment rate among British citizens is pretty disproportionate compared to British residents, and I think they're blaming the EU for that. |
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| Author: | Aethien [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Re: |
Talya wrote: Aethien wrote: Huh. Why do you say that this will leave us with a much stronger Russian Federation? Economically, this will weaken Russia's biggest economic adversaries, as the European Union and particularly England suffer for the deal. Militarily, this will weaken Russia's single largest rival in Europe, as the UK collapses into its component parts. Gotcha, thanks. |
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| Author: | Talya [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Potential good news, as far as the UK is concerned, that France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Italy are now also calling for similar referenda. |
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| Author: | Kairtane [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sui: Should you stay or should you go? |
Talya, thanks for explaining. I was going to write a post about how the smaller countries wanted to remain in the EU while England was still a member but perhaps those votes might change after England's exit. Your post concerning the countries now calling for membership referendums in the rest of Europe makes the case for me. |
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| Author: | SuiNeko [ Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
You asked what I thought. This is what I wrote to my MP. Also, I live in New Jersey now. Dear Mr Field, I'll keep this brief, as I am sure the current chaos is keeping you busy. Help. I am a British citizen in your constituency and have just seen my countrymen vote for something that will have profound negative repercussions for us all, for a very long time. I am a democrat, and believe in the will of the people, but for the first time understand why a representative democracy is not a direct democracy. I understand the public have voted. I also understand a lot of the debate prior to the vote was on falsified information around funding levels for the NHS and local government, damage to the economy and FX rates, and the ability to control immigration. I understand there ar many who regret their leave votes. But regardless of the positions people voted for, which are now being abandoned, or their regret, there is a bigger issue; our roles and duties are to protect this country from collapse. The prospect of Irish and Scottish independence, of a blockade of gibraltar, and an economic stagnation meaning we can't invest to rebuild our economy along new lines presents the very real prospect of a country utterly unlike that we know and love, and an end to the united kingdom. Simultaneously we see ourselves backing away from the union that has helped bring peace to Europe after generations of warfare between our neighbours, at a time when more than ever we need to work together. I do not believe the EU is an ideal institution, or in no need of reform. I do believe that it is the only supranational body we have been a part of that is even semi functional in supporting the growth of a more civilised, peacable, mercantile trading federation of democracies with generally liberal and free societies. The Brexit vote eels akin to watching a brother hold a gun to his head, assure me I shouldn't worry as he knows what he;s doing, while he pulls the trigger. Over the coming weeks I would plead with you to do everything you can to protect our united kingdom, and to prevent the breakup of the union and of our services lead economy. There will be votes in parliament on Article 50, and as a conservative MP, I am sure you will have some degree of influence in the selection of our new prime minister. Please, please, do not let this insanity continue. Yours, Suiddaru Fallenstar Puppy Ranger of the Glade |
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| Author: | Serienya [ Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: |
SuiNeko wrote: Also, I live in New Jersey now. Where in NJ, if I might ask? I live in PA, but work in central Jersey. |
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| Author: | SuiNeko [ Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sui: Should you stay or should you go? |
Right now? Fair lawn, but M buying a brownstone in Jersey city by Hamilton Park Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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| Author: | Aethien [ Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Wow, didn't realize you're now on this side, Sui. Welcome. Thanks for the letter and sharing your thoughts. It had just occurred to me last week that you were the only Brit I could ask this. |
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| Author: | SuiNeko [ Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:07 pm ] |
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Well, I have a greencard now, and the brownstone also has a companion cabin up in Saugerties, NY. Should I stay, or should I go? ;p |
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| Author: | Raell [ Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
/Bonk... Bad Sui, damn necro posting had me thinking folks had come back. Then I looked at the dates... |
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