DFK! wrote:
I'd like to double the size of the aircraft carrier fleet, as well as their corresponding escorts.
I'd like to correspondingly (in terms of $ cost) reduce the amount of forward bases.
This is a fantastic idea, provided its accompanied by agreements allowing us basing
access in friendly countries in times of need.
Let me tell you why. Right now we have 11 carriers. Disregarding
Enterprise, which is on its last deployment, that leaves us with 10
Nimitz-class ships, plus one
Ford-class ship under construction. The
Nimitz was commissioned in 1975, the
Bush in 2009, so 34 years to build 10 carriers.
To make the math easy, we'll say a carrier lasts 50 years, just a bit under
Enterprise's lifespan. Let's also assume we get a new carrier about every 3.5 years, roughly the average for the
Nimitz-class.
This means in 13 more years we'll begin losing
Nimitzes, and lose one roughly every 3.5 years thereafter.
At that rate, to double the carrier fleet, assuming the
Fords start coming online in 2015 as planned, and every 3.5 years thereafter, at the point
Nimitz would retire in 2025, we'd be at 12 total carriers, and after that stagnate at that level, alternating between 12 and 13 ships.
In order to double the fleet, we'd have to nearly double the rate of construction. It is probably not feasible for the one yard that builds nuclear carriers to double the speed of construction, so another would need to be opened. This would invite competition and drive costs down, and there would be a strong incentive to be the better performer because once the fleet was doubled, new construction would slow to what was needed to maintain the force. You don't want to be the worse yard at that point.
Right now, effective competition for carriers is simply not possible. There are not enough built for any other corporation to maintain the facilities needed.
What's worse is this program to "slow down" construction. This can only drive up costs. Any time a procurement program is "slowed", it ends up increasing in cost, both absolute and per-unit. This is a constant battle in defense procurement. It's been a serious problem ever since Congress discovered it was a lot more fun to horse-trade what would get built between districts rather than simply allocate money to the services and let them order what they needed within the authorized ceiling.