The Glade 4.0

Pretty Boy Floyd (Money) Mayweather makes his comeback against JMM on Saturday. The catchweight for the fight is 144lbs, 3 under the Welterweight threshold.

My pick is Mayweather: Several things work to PBF's advantage:

Size. This is the biggest one you hear about. Marquez is shorter by an inch and has a significant 5" reach disadvantage. He also has never fought above 134 and a half, whereas PBF has fought all the way up to super welterweight (154) when he fought Oscar de la Hoya. PBF will be at his prime balance in speed and strength at 144. His standing weight for the de la Hoya fight was probably the same as his weigh in and standing weight @ 150 even. He had to bulk up to hit 150, but fighting at 144 shouldn't prove to affect him.

Defense. Mayweather is probably the most elusive welterweight ever, especially in the pocket. He's not too fast to hit, but he's too fast to score any significant shots against. No other boxer has ever employed the Philly Crab so effectively as Mayweather, and JMM is right handed so he's not going to get any advantage when trying to score against it. In fact, I think that is Mayweather's one greatest asset when you go back and look at his fights on tape: his defense allows him to frustrate his opponents to making mistakes, and the Philly Shell is outstanding for counter-punching speed. He can roll through a combo (he has the speed and "feel" to find the other guys' rhythm) and shoot a hard answer back with almost no possibility of retaliation. Additionally, Mayweather's style of footwork, head movement and excellent sense of range, speed and timing makes him probably the most elusive Welterweight to hit in the pocket, and probably one of the hardest P4P.

Clutch. He pulled out controversial split decision wins over Zab Judah and Oscar De La Hoya. He's also been the first to snap many undefeated or long win streaks: he beat undefeated titlists Ricky Hatton (Welterweight) and Diego Corrales (Super Featherweight). He has title defense stoppages against contenders Phillip N'dou (Lightweight) and Jesus Chavez (Junior Lightweight).

I don't see how Marquez can win. Marquez is quality, a veteran, but is getting older. To his credit, his last win was very big of Juan Diaz for the vacant WBO lightweight title. He has recent wins over Marco Antonio Barrera and Rocky Juarez. He also fought to a draw with Pacquaio and a Splid Decision Loss.

In terms of quality of opponents, they are equals, but in terms of pulling off wins against the odds, Mayweather takes it. He has captured 6 titles in 5 different weight classes.

The size is going to be a biggest issue. Guys can say they will bulk up and fight 10lbs up, but doing it is another thing. This is assuming Mayweather has all the ring rust out and is ready to fight like we saw him 2 years ago. Marquez will be sluggish against Mayweather at the new weight which is something you absolutely can't afford with his speed, or be under and get bullied.

Mayweather takes in, unanimous decision if he doesn't stop him in the late rounds.

_________________
"It's real, grew up in trife life, the times of white lines
The hype vice, murderous nighttimes and knife fights invite crimes" - Nasir Jones

Oh, and so one might wonder, why would Marquez sign a fight where he's naturally disadvantaged? Especially when he came so close to beating Pacquaio, the current P4P king of the world and has a score to settle, so to speak.

Well, this fight will probably have a total gate+draw of at least $30MM and possibly up to $45MM. Mayweather will take home $12MM probably and I'm sure Marquez has a contract guarantee of at least $5-6MM plus bonuses to both for outstanding PPV draws.

Fighting Floyd is(was) second only to fighting Oscar de la Hoya; it basically gives you a retirement fund.

_________________
"It's real, grew up in trife life, the times of white lines
The hype vice, murderous nighttimes and knife fights invite crimes" - Nasir Jones

Oh yeah, won $18 off this fight :p

Compubox tells the whole story:

Mayweather
Total: 290 / 493 - 59%
Jabs: 185 / 316 - 59%
Power Punches: 105 / 177 - 59%

Marquez
Total: 69 / 583 - 12%
Jabs: 21 / 288 - 7%
Power Punches: 48 / 295 - 16%

One sided. Mayweather held Marquez to single digit connects in every round, connected more jabs than Marquez totaled every round, and tied or beat his total connects with power shots in every round but the 3rd, 4th and 8th. The bigger guy for this fight was quicker, slicker, with better D and of course was tougher and stronger. The only thing this fight lacked was a late round KO.

_________________
"It's real, grew up in trife life, the times of white lines
The hype vice, murderous nighttimes and knife fights invite crimes" - Nasir Jones