Loss of Stephen Strasburg a huge one

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Jayson Stark
Friday, August 27, 2010
ESPN.com


This isn't just the Washington Nationals' loss.

You understand that, right?

If Stephen Strasburg isn't going to throw a pitch for another year -- or even more -- the entire sport of baseball isn't going to be quite the same.

There aren't many pitchers -- there aren't many players, period -- who can cause you to interrupt your regularly scheduled life because you just have to watch them do their thing. But Stephen Strasburg was one of them.

And now we can't be sure he'll ever be one of those players again.

We found out Friday morning that Strasburg almost certainly needs Tommy John surgery. That news itself wasn't a total shock.

Rumblings that Strasburg had a torn ligament in his elbow had been rattling around baseball practically since the moment he walked off the mound in Philadelphia last Saturday.

But now that we know that's true, we need to digest this news and what it means. And boy, is there a lot to digest.

For one thing, it means an end to not merely one of the most dazzling seasons by a rookie pitcher in baseball history. It means an end to one of the most dazzling seasons by any kind of pitcher in baseball history, even though it didn't last nearly long enough.

Strasburg made just 12 major league starts. But in those 12 starts, he faced 274 hitters and struck out 92 of them.

The only starting pitchers who have ever, in any season of 10 or more starts, whiffed that high a percentage (33.6) of the hitters they faced were Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. Those two own eight Cy Young awards. There's a reason for that.

Now add in Strasburg's 11 minor league starts. Of the 484 hitters he faced, only 87 of them got hits. Which would be 70 fewer -- yeah, 70 -- than he struck out.

If he had done all of that in the big leagues, you should know that only two starting pitchers in the entire live-ball era have had a season with a strikeout rate that high and a hits-allowed rate that low -- Johnson (1997) and Kerry Wood (1998).

OK, obviously, some of those hitters Strasburg saw in the Eastern League are never going to hit cleanup for the Yankees. We'll concede that. But Strasburg actually had a higher strikeout ratio in the major leagues (12.18 per nine innings) than he had in the minors (10.6). So apparently, his stuff translated just fine on any level.

Anyway, we present those numbers simply to make this point, for about the billionth time:

This guy was special.

It was clear from the moment he stepped onto the big league stage in June and punched out 14 Pirates that he was something special.

And what lay ahead promised to be just as special.

That was part of the electricity of watching Stephen Strasburg. It wasn't simply about the fun of watching him hit 100 mph on the gun, buckle knees everywhere with his breaking ball or induce some of the ugliest hacks ever witnessed with his dive-bomber changeup.

It was also about wondering where it was all leading.

If you live in a big league town, one of the heart-thumping benefits is the thrill of looking at the schedule and realizing: "Whoa. Strasburg pitches here next week."

It's been that way forever. No different than the days when people thought: Koufax comes to town next week … or Gibson … or Pedro … or Fernando.

Those evenings are never just another night on the schedule. They're Events.

And even though this guy trailed all those guys decisively in Cy Young trophies, Strasburg Night was already in that same class. It was An Event.

Not just in Washington, either. All over the baseball map.

Remember the "Baseball Tonight" crew broadcasting live from the first game of his career? That doesn't happen every night of the season, friends.

Remember TBS bailing on a Red Sox-Phillies game in June to show a Nationals-Indians game instead? That would have been ratings suicide if Strasburg hadn't been pitching.

And then there was the unique phenomenon of Stras-mas in Washington.

Strasburg made it to the mound only seven times in D.C. this summer. But just those seven starts alone nearly made his team an extra $3 million, according to CNBC's Darren Rovell.

In those seven starts, the Nationals averaged 33,446 paying customers per game. In all their other home games this year, heading into this homestand, they'd averaged only 22,761 fans.

So just the attraction of watching Strasburg pitch was the kind of magnetic force that sucked an extra 10,685 customers per game into the ballpark.

Who does that?

Only those rare athletes, with that special on-field charisma, do that. And Stephen Strasburg was one of them.

So for the Nationals, this news is a crusher, just from that standpoint alone.

It's a crusher from a standpoint of sheer economics. The best guess is that Strasburg would have made four more starts at home this season before the team shut him down. Then add in another 15 or 16 more starts at home next year.

So if this fellow had kept attracting all those extra customers at even close to the same rate, that's somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million they just lost. Practically could have paid for another year of Adam Dunn all by himself.

But obviously, for this franchise, the impact goes way beyond the sound of the cash register that just stopped ringing.

Strasburg gave the Nationals an identity, a presence. He was practically the face of the franchise before he'd even played for the franchise.

So this is a loss, an injury, that will reverberate in every direction, for as long as he's out.

We know the prognosis for most Tommy John patients is good. Close to 90 percent of them come back, within 12 to 18 months, and recover just fine.

But in the case of this man, you still have to wonder.

Will he be back throwing 97 to 100 mph again?

Will he have the confidence to finish his changeup -- the pitch that stressed his shoulder in July and then caused the blowout of his elbow ligament last weekend -- the same way again?

Will he ever be this kind of pitcher again?

We mentioned Kerry Wood earlier. Wood had Tommy John surgery right after his rookie year. That was 11 years ago. He's pitched 11 seasons in the big leagues since that surgery. So obviously, he healed. He came back and put up lots of picturesque numbers, even led his league in strikeouts once.

But he's never been that guy again.

So what does the future hold for Stephen Strasburg? None of us can be too sure.

Maybe he'll be back in 2012 as if this never happened. Maybe he and Bryce Harper will arrive on the Nationals' scene at virtually the same time now -- and recharge the franchise together.

But we don't know that. We don't know it'll all turn out fine. You can't ever know where Tommy John surgery is leading -- whether you're Stephania Bell or Dr. James Andrews or Rob Dibble. No injury, no surgery, no rehab is ever precisely the same.

So all we can do is wait. And see. In the meantime, for the Washington Nationals, it means way too many games that are about to be pitched by Miss Iowa.

And for the rest of us, hey, life will go on. And baseball will go on. But don't forget something important here, as Stephen Strasburg heads for another doctor's office:

This is our loss, too.

If Stephen Strasburg isn't going to throw a pitch for another year -- or even more -- the entire sport of baseball isn't going to be quite the same.

Could be worse. You could be the Red Sox and having a pretty decent year, despite a litany of injuries, and still not make the postseason. And one of those teams who's ahead of you are the Tampa Rays. I don't care how good they are. They're still the Tampa Rays in my eyes.

Former phenom Prior is pitching to be noticed
By Steve Henson

FULLERTON, Calif. – Mark Prior is facing a rag-tag team called the Tijuana Cimarrones for the second time in two days. The back-to-back appearances mark a milestone in his comeback from multiple maladies and surgeries, from replacing a debilitating pocketful of if-onlys with hope.

His stuff isn’t as sharp as the previous day, when he struck out the side on 10 pitches, all strikes. One batter walks and another belts a drive that Prior’s right fielder flags down over his shoulder at the warning track. Despite the catch, the batter touches them all as if he’d hit a home run, a goofy independent league moment that Prior does his best to ignore. He strikes out the last batter, giving him 20 in 10 innings since joining the Orange County Flyers of the Golden Baseball League nearly a month ago.

The scene is jarring to anyone who remembers Prior as the top prospect in baseball less than a decade ago, the second pick in the 2001 draft behind Joe Mauer(notes), signing for $10.5 million, at the time by far the largest contract for an American-born amateur. Imagine Stephen Strasburg(notes) celebrating his 30th birthday by pitching in front of 200 people, his most fervent wish that a major league team would offer a simple spring training invitation when the calendar turns.

Prior is Strasburg 1.0. He lived through the overblown hype, the unreal expectations, the fleeting dominance and the thud of an abrupt fall when his body broke down. Of course, Strasburg could easily return from Tommy John surgery as good as new. Prior wouldn’t wish the rest of his story on anybody, let alone a pitcher with as much promise as Strasburg.

He’s had two shoulder surgeries since he last pitched in the big leagues in 2006. Before that, he injured the shoulder during a baserunning collision and a line drive fractured his elbow. And far too often, he was throwing 120 pitches or more, the concept of protecting a young arm by monitoring pitch counts not yet a science accepted throughout baseball.

If only, if only, if only. His message to Strasburg is something the Washington Nationals rookie already practices: shut out distractions, quiet the noise, focus on rehab.

“I think there are some parallels from the standpoint of him being the first pick overall and coming out and being ready,” Prior said. “I know that with myself, and this is speaking from my experience, a lot of comments were made by people who had no clue what was going on, who didn’t know the real details. So for me, I think he needs to realize he’s under this microscope that nobody else has been under. I don’t believe I was ever under as intense a microscope as he is. We’re 10 years later, different media, the way we follow things in general is much more intense.

“He made 11 starts and the machine never died down. He’s in for a long road, although obviously the Tommy John success rate is good. It doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. From my experience, what he’s going to find out is that he needs to realize that it’s about him and what he’s trying to do, and try to block out as much of the other stuff as he can.”

By the time Prior’s arm wouldn’t respond anymore after a failed tryout with the San Diego Padres in 2007, he’d made $12.8 million. He’d started a family. He seriously considered quitting.

“At times it’s been rough,” he said. “It’s been extremely challenging from a physical standpoint. And, I guess, from a mental standpoint, too.”

But he heard the same comment from his wife, his parents, his agent, his friends.

“Do you want to look back in five years and wish you gave it one more shot?” he said. “Ultimately that was the decision. I’m young, I’m fortunate that I’m secure enough to where I can ride out a year and see what I can come up with. I want to play.”

Prior hasn’t allowed an earned run with the Flyers. His fastball has touched 92 mph. The hope might be more than a glimmer. Certainly it’s enough for him to set aside the if-onlys for the time being.

“Right now I’m finding out who I really am,” he said. “Obviously I was a power pitcher. But I’ve been 91, 92, so I’m not too far off from where I was. Everybody thinks I was this upper to mid-90s. For the most part I lived at 92, 93. I’m not throwing 85. I’m the same guy and I’m attacking hitters the way I used to.”

The biggest difference is diminished expectations. Prior no longer aspires to be the best pitcher in baseball. Cy Young awards aren’t in the equation. He wants to be a big leaguer again, to pitch in middle relief, maybe be trusted with the eighth inning every other day. So he’ll finish out the Flyers’ season, which, pleasantly, is concluding with a near-two week stint in Maui.

“Teams want to see me in game action,” he said. “They want to see me pitch one day, take a day off and pitch another day. They want to see me pitch two days in a row. They want to see me throw two innings.”

If-only has been replaced by what-if. It’s a feeling he hasn’t felt in a long time, a feeling of hope.

So how bout that Cuban fella, Chapman? 103 in a major league game already? 105 in the minors?

Rynar:

What's with the Dusty Baker hate?

This generation of baseball players were all cheaters. Every last one of them. That, plus the fact that Clemens wasn't a power pitcher. He was a control artist who happened to throw hard.

Some guys cheated, a minority of them I would believe. And Clemens was a power pitcher with decent control. 3 walks per vs 9k per for his career. Maddux averaged 2 walks per and 6k per for his.

You do realize you just made my argument for me, right? The two have the same strikeout to walk ratio.

Khross:

Clemens had a substantial lead in every counting catagory, and every title, and every award (save Golden Gloves) and did so in fewer innings pitched and fewer games started.

Maddux has more decisions, more complete games, more shut outs.

And 3 Walks and 9 Strike Outs per 9 is a vastly different ratio than 2 walks and 6 strike outs per 9.

seeing as Greg Maddux has the lowest career base runners allowed of any pitcher in the top 10.