The Glade 4.0

In the short run, I predict Howard Dean will take over the DNC again on the basis of (i) his focus on improving Dem's down-ballot and state level performance and (ii) the perception (accurate, in my view, despite the mischaracterization of him as a firebrand in the 2004 election) that he represents a compromise between the Sanders lefties and the pragmatic centrists. As for 2020, it depends on how Trump is doing. If he defies predictions and does reasonably well, there'll be a handful of second tier talents put up in the primaries to try and pull an upset. If he craters as spectacularly as expected, every prominent Dem will be clamoring for their shot. Of the known quantities out there today, I wouldn't be surprised if we see Corey Booker take a run at it.

He's a name that is getting a great deal of attention. Duckworth is the other one. Tulsi Gabbard is another one with upcoming talent; her biggest problem is that with the Democrat lock of Hawaii its going to be hard for her to run for Senator or Governor unless an incumbent departs.

Gabbard is, of the three, I think the most likely to be able to make a stand on principle, since she stood up to Wasserman-Schultz over the treatment of Bernie Sanders. That's going to stand up to independent and Republican scrutiny quite well indeed. Full disclosure though - I've worked with Gabbard before, so that may color my view of her.



Don't be too sure. Assuming that demographics = destiny is precisely how the Democrats got themselves into this mess in the first place. What seems like a foolproof gerrymander in 2020 could end in disaster before 2030. The Republicans will be far from immune to this temptation. The Republicans should not assume their present electoral success coalition will hold; certainly not until 2030.

The same for Democrats. Before they start complaining too much about gerrymandering, they ought to consider that they had a hissy fit over not being able to use 1970 data in district determination - at the same time they've been loudly insisting that demographics are changing in their favor. They ought to take a massive warning sign from the fact that Trump outperformed Romney and McCain (slightly) with the groups they want to gerrymander in favor of. It isn't that his absolute performance with them was impressive; it was that he should have significantly underperformed them and didn't.

That's a gigantic warning shot to both parties - we are undergoing a flux, and what seems like a safe bet on demographics today may not be that way in 10 or 15 years depending how things go. The Democrats need to confront a lot of their own underlying beliefs. The Republicans need to remember that Trump wasn't their idea, and this isn't some affirmation of Republican superiority. The electorate is far from appeased.

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"Hysterical children shrieking about right-wing anything need to go sit in the corner and be quiet while the adults are talking."