Diamondeye wrote:
That's sort of the point. All those confounding variables are what establish that availability of firearms does not cause or correlate with increased suicide.
Um, no. Not at all. For one, availability of firearms does correlate with increased suicide (in the US).
Also, the existence of confounding variables doesn't mean the variable we're looking at (firearm accessibility) is not a cause. It just means you have to account for those confounding variables in your study. Which has been done.
For example, one study (Miller 2007) used survey-based measures of state household firearm ownership (from the CDC’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System) while controlling for state-level measures of mental illness, drug and alcohol abuse, and other factors associated with suicide. The study found that males and females and people of all age groups were at higher risk for suicide if they lived in a state with high firearm prevalence. This is perhaps most concrete when looking not at rates or regression results but at raw numbers. The authors compared the 40 million people who live in the states with the lowest firearm prevalence (HI, MA, RI, NJ, CT, NY) to about the same number living in the states with the highest firearm prevalence (WY, SD, AK, WV, MT, AR, MS, ID, ND, AL, KY, WI, LA, TN, UT). Overall suicides were almost twice as high in the high-gun states, even though non-firearm suicides were about equal.
Code:
High-Gun States Low-Gun States
Population 39 million 40 million
Household Gun Ownership 47% 15%
Firearm Suicide 9,749 2,606
Non-Firearm Suicide 5,060 5,446
Total Suicide 14,809 8,052
That's a pretty damn strong correlation. And I think the fact that the non-firearm suicide rate is the same is pretty telling. But there are lots of differences between people who live in those rural, low population states versus people living in the northeast. Maybe is another factor, a confounding variable, that is at work here. But what is it? Those who study this kind of thing have looked into it, and found that those in more rural areas like those 15 "high-gun" states have the rates of depression, the same rates of suicidal thoughts, and the same rates of mental illness. And again, they have the same rate of non-firearm suicide. The one major difference is how many of them kill themselves with firearms.
So what's this magical confounding variable that explains this huge gap in the firearm suicide rate? I'm all ears...