Xequecal wrote:
The main reason the pre-existing condition discrimination protections work on the employer market but don't work on the individual market under Obamacare is not because employer based health insurance can only be purchased at specific times, but because the mandate under Obamacare is insufficiently punitive to force healthy people into the exchanges. The penalty for "opting out" of health insurance in the employer marketplace is enormous, that's why even healthy people don't do it.
My job charges a single person $28/pay period for health insurance. $60/month does not, to put it mildly, come anywhere close to covering the average annual cost to the company to pay for the health care of a single person, it probably doesn't even cover 10% of the cost. So as a person in the employer marketplace I get to pay $60/month in order to receive a benefit that has an average value of (for example) $10k/year. I can opt out if I want and keep my sixty bucks, but to do so I have to leave $10,000/year in value on the table, and thus pay a "penalty" of $9,280 that year for not having health insurance. Obviously, I'm not going to do that.
You're not, however, actually leaving anything on the table if you don't take the offered health insurance other than the health insurance. There's no way for you to convert that value into anything else. In fact, even if you do take it you don't actually get that value unless you use enough services to cost at least $10,000.
If there were no limitations on the ability to sign up, you could have it both ways. You could keep your $60 a month and sign up as soon as you had some medical issue that was going to cost more than a trivial amount.
Also, $60 a month seems remarkably low to me even for a single adult, but not so low as to change the nature of the discussion so...
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Now, $10k/year is just the average value of the healthcare when all the sick people are included. However, the deal is so good I'm still going to take it even if I'm healthy. Let's say for an extreme example that for a very healthy person, the healthcare is only worth $1k/year instead of $10k/year because they're so healthy and don't expect to get sick. Well, they're only paying $60/month for it, it's still a good deal so they still do it.
Which you're going to do because if you don't take it now, you may not be able to get it when you actually do end up needing it. Obviously, some people would take it up front just to keep the hassle to a minimum, but a lot of people would opt out of the coverage until they needed it.
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Now let's say I don't get insurance from my job and need to buy it on the individual marketplace. Now instead of paying $60/month, I have to pay a fair price for that $10k/year in average value so I'm going to be stuck paying $600/month instead. If I'm a healthy person such that my annual average healthcare costs are only $1k, I'm obviously not going to buy in. I'm going to eat my $300 mandate penalty and spend $1,300/year on my health care rather than spend $7,200/year. The mandate just isn't anywhere near punishing enough to force me into the insurance market. Even if I am a very poor person and get an 80% Obamacare subsidy on my premiums, it's still not worth it. This is why the exchanges are unstable, healthy people just aren't buying in. Trumpcare would have been even more of a disaster in this regard. Now instead of that 80% subsidy (which might make it worth it to buy in) I get a $2,000/year flat tax credit, and the mandate is gone. With health care costs being what they are, a mere $2,000 annual subsidy means I'm going to nope right the **** out of buying health insurance if I'm even slightly healthier than the median. The idea of providing pre-existing condition discrimination protection without a mandate is so absurd I could not believe the Trumpcare bill actually attempted to do this, it's total nonsense. Obamacare is failing because the penalty wasn't harsh enough, they wanted to try it without one.
Yet there's not a mandate for employer insurance, and as I just explained, if there was no limitation on ability to purchase you'd have a lot of people opting out of coverage until they needed it.
We already understand why people aren't taking the mandated insurance and choosing to eat the penalty. The problem isn't with pre-existing conditions per se; it's with the ability to sign up when you get sick rather than having to wait for "open season". If people knew that open season was in October and only October and they might end up in a wreck or with cancer in January, they'd be more inclined to take it while they could get it.
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So, now the question is, why do employers cover >90% of the health care costs of their employees? Well, it's because the government provides absolutely massive incentives in the form of tax breaks and outright handouts to the employers in order to get them to do so. This is why I don't regard "fairness" arguments complaining about the Obamacare subsidies as being very credible, because everyone else is already being massively subsidized. I find it quite awful when a person on the employer marketplace, who due to massive government handouts and corporate tax breaks receives his healthcare at less than 10% of the cost of providing it, then proceeds to complain that poor people also get healthcare subsidies. Before Obamacare, the employer marketplace got huge government handouts to bolster it, as well as discrimination protections, while the poor people on the individual marketplace got jack ****. How is it "unfair" for Obamacare to also provide them with subsidies, considering everyone else was already getting them?
Well, first of all the subsidy isn't his. It's his employer's. The employee has a chocie - pay 10% or so and get (potentially) 10x that much in health services value, but only in health services, and only if he actually needs it. The health coverage is compensation just like any other benefit is; if he foregoes the benefit he's foregoing some compensation. The company gets to keep that money then, essentially as a windfall, because it was part of the cost of having the employee that they lucked out and didn't have to pay if he decided to do without.
Second, the employer-provided healthcare person can't - as I pointed out - freely come and go from his insurance. The public buyer can. Public buyers tend to suddenly appear wanting to pay when they need the service, just like that idiot a few years back who only wanted to pay his fire fee when his house was burning down.
These people jack up the prices for
everyone. Money is money to the insurance company. When costs go up because a bunch of sick people can suddenly get insurance when they need it and not before, they have to make up that cost somewhere - out of the pockets of the employers and employees buying plans. This is why, if you liked your plan, you could not, in fact, keep it.
The unlimited ability to sign up when you have a pre-existing condition is the problem. People used to complain that pregnancy was a "pre-existing condition" as if that were somehow absurd. Well, the reason is that it can cost $15,000 to have a baby, or more, and that's just for the hospital birthing stay. Otherwise healthy women would be able to sign up as soon as they got pregnant, and even at $600 a month over 9 months that'd be a cost of $5,400 versus $15,000 for the hospital before we even talk about pre-natal care, then drop the coverage when the baby was born or shortly thereafter. This is just one example; any high-cost pre-existing condition causes this problem. Unless the problem is permanent. In that case, the person may stay on the plan but the company is stuck paying the costs.
"Pre-existing condition" is a highly misleading term because it lumps all pre-existing conditions together. I have a pre-existing thyroid condition, which can be treated with a dirt-cheap medication; it's about $12-$15 a month without health coverage. An insurance company looking at me isn't looking at the same thing as "hundreds of thousands of dollars in cancer treatments" and it isn't like I'd get insurance just to cover this cost - I can pay for an annual checkup and the medication just fine. But, in the public debate, my pre-existing condition is the same as "hundreds of thousands in cancer treatments."
This could be solved by limiting the ability to purchase upon discovery of a major medical condition. What, specifically, that limitation would look like is up for debate, but the only other real solution would be ruinous, absurd tax rates of the kind Europe has, and can only maintain because they aren't paying the bills for defense. That $300+ billion bill for NATO that Trump didn't actually hand to Angela Merkel should have been paid before anyone was allowed to set foot in a hospital for publicly-paid healthcare, and the fact that it wasn't is how Europe is able to maintain this fiction that a welfare state can actually work.
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The same goes for the characterization of Medicare as an "earned" benefit and Medicaid as an "unearned" one. To a very limited extent that's true, as Medicaid is a pure handout and Medicare is something you did pay SOME money toward, but the fact of the matter is Medicare is >$500 billion/year in the hole for a very good reason, and that's because that 2.9% taken out of everyone's paychecks to pay for it doesn't even pay for 25% of Medicare's total costs. Medicare is very much an unearned handout borne from the redistribution of wealth from rich to poor people and federal deficit spending, just like any other entitlement handout.
If you want to argue that 2.9% is too low, there's room for that argument (it's low enough that it could be raised a bit without Euro levels of tax absurdity) but the fact is that there's a huge difference in "redistribution" and "entitlement" you are paying
something for and one you are paying
nothing for.
"redistribution" is a dirty word on the Glade, but in reality the average American is fine with redistribution towards those who A)
can't work or B)
did work, but not towards those who C)
won't work. Medicare is limited to B), and there's no way to cheat into it - you can't make yourself old any faster. Medicaid is for A). The problem results from people who fall into C)* trying to represent themselves as belonging to A). Any time you put a benefit out there, people look at the rules and try to figure out how to get the free ****, and there's an endless stream of reporters, virtue-signalling activists, and concerned suburbanite soccer moms ready to demand they be given access so they can feel like they "made a difference".
The VA is like this too - even more so. It's not an accident that the most screwed-up part of the veteran's system is the healthcare. There's those sweet disability payments you can get if you just go to the doctor and claim the right parts of your body hurt. The system that is there for those that tore themselves up badly over 20 or 25 years or who got a leg crushed by a 5-ton truck or six concussions in Iraq or a leg blown off is overrun with kids who were in for 3 or 4 years trying to qualify for disability payments. When I take my PT test I'm surrounded by people 10 or 20 years younger than me, and a huge number of them have a profile saying they "can't do pushups", "can't do situps" or "have to take an alternate event rather than the run"**
The system, therefore, is overrun with people who are really just there to try to claim the disability payments. For all the jumping up and down and screaming about the VA's ineffectiveness and incompetence (both of which are legendary), it's only exacerbated by caseload and cost from people trying to game the system.
This is what people like Taskiss do not want in the non-Veteran's healthcare system - people gaming the system and not legitimately putting in at all. If we jacked the penalty up to the point that it was punitive enough that people were really economically forced to get health insurance, we'd have a new source of outrage, that poor people were having to make this "horrible choice" of a massive tax penalty or a massive insurance bill, particularly those people just not-poor enough to not quite get subsidized***. Instead, we have people waiting until they need the insurance because something happened, then claiming the subsidy, or else just buying the coverage as long as they needed and then ditching it, and sticking the company with the bill which gets passed on to Taskiss in the form of him not, in fact, getting to "keep his plan".
No system will ever work until and unless the public has some obligation to it. That could be a larger penalty, a purchase restriction, an understanding that they need to do their part to stay healthy and keep costs down, something, but any system is going to be a disaster as long as we allow individual people to parade on TV whining about how tough it is that the whole thing isn't completely free of both cost and hassle, and to show up at town halls pretending they'd "be dead without Obamacare" (They would not, in fact, be dead. Bankrupt perhaps, but they would physically still be alive.)
*By "won't work" I don't mean literally won't work at all, ever, but rather "don't take the steps to obtain consistent, gainful employment and improve that employment over the working years of one's life." People fall into C to widely varying degrees. The short-order cook at Waffle House who has been doing it for 40 years may be a person with developmental issues who had no hope of anything better and genuinely needs help - or he may be an ex-convict who decided he was too cool for school at 14, and now thinks he's a "victim" and got "screwed over" because it turns out that life kind of sucks when your career plan is breaking into garages and spending the proceeds on beer and cigarettes.
**(and if they do run, they **** dog it all the way around the track. I'm 41 and on the heavier side and I can still outrun most of these little shits. If you're under 30 and you can't maintain a 7 minute mile, whether you're in the military or not you're, a **** disgrace. Put down the goddamn pringles can and go to the gym, you **** fat whale. If there's ever a revolution, the first people up against the wall better be anyone who waddles, has to go sideways onto a bus, or who snores when they're awake. Fortunately, most of them are likely to be already dead because they'll act as decoys for anti-ship missiles.)
***I strongly suspect that the designers knew damn well the penalty was too low, and the idea was to either ensure it was a disaster and force the system to single-payer, or else get the Republicans to be the ones to raise it and then dress the whole affair up as them "taking the side of the rich and the insurance companies". Remember, we're talking about a bill the public was "too stupid to understand" and that we "needed to pass to see what was in it." The idea was likely "pass something that won't actually work, then blame the Republicans for it. when they try to change anything."