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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 11:15 am 
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RangerDave wrote:
But I'd argue that the people I identified - Krugman, Cowen, McArdle, Yglesias, DeLong - do represent a reasonable spectrum of mainstream opinion.

So you've pre-marginalized non-Keynesians?

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 11:28 am 
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Kaffis Mark V wrote:
RangerDave wrote:
But I'd argue that the people I identified - Krugman, Cowen, McArdle, Yglesias, DeLong - do represent a reasonable spectrum of mainstream opinion.

So you've pre-marginalized non-Keynesians?


I don't think I'm marginalizing them. I think it's simply a fact that most economics professors, policymakers, and financial bigwigs accept the basic Keynesian/Monetarist view of macro-economics. That doesn't mean other schools of thought (e.g. Austrian) are crazy, wrong, or completely unrepresented in expert discussions. Indeed, most of the economics commentators I mentioned reference Austrian views as a useful critique of the dominant/mainstream view. I'm just saying it's clearly not an equally dominant/mainstream school of thought.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:23 pm 
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And yet, you continue to use the word "mainstream," which has loaded connotations implying that Austrian (etc.) economics are fringe or radical.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:48 pm 
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RangerDave:

You're simply making an appeal to popularity now. Keynesian economics is based on an absolute disregard for microeconomics, which amuses me to no end, since macro-economy is an aggregation of micro-transactions carried out at the level of individual. Or, let me put Keynes in a term at which you will scoff: Keynes is the father of Trickle Down Economics.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 1:46 pm 
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I agree that Keynesian economics is mainstream - it simply is the most used and talked about and referenced economic school of thought.

It's also proven to many many times to be entirely invalid but humans are much more likely to believe the comfortable lie than the uncomfortable truth.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 1:50 pm 
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People, generally, aren't that logical. It's easy for them to fall into a trap which implements appeals to authority, tradition, and popularity.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 6:31 pm 
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Khross wrote:
You're simply making an appeal to popularity now.


Actually, I'm not. There's a difference between saying, "Most people believe X, therefore X must be true," and saying, "Most experts, having studied the data, conclude X, therefore X is more likely to be true." The first statement is a logical fallacy; the second is not.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 6:44 pm 
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Yes, it is. Because it does not represent any logic. If you were being logical, you'd be able to arrive at the same conclusion by following the logic that your experts purport to.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 7:29 pm 
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Actually to be perfectly fair, he's right. He doesn't need to replicate the work of the experts to avoid fallacy.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 7:54 pm 
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Diamondeye wrote:
Actually to be perfectly fair, he's right. He doesn't need to replicate the work of the experts to avoid fallacy.

But citation is needed.

Pretty hard to prove, too. "Most" is a hard number to quantify.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 7:58 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
Actually to be perfectly fair, he's right. He doesn't need to replicate the work of the experts to avoid fallacy.

But citation is needed.

Pretty hard to prove, too. "Most" is a hard number to quantify.


That is true.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:01 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
But citation is needed.

Pretty hard to prove, too. "Most" is a hard number to quantify.


Agreed, at least in a formal context. If I was writing a paper on the subject, I'd have to provide a cite for that assertion. For a forum discussion like this, though, I don't think relatively uncontroversial statements really need to be backed up. I doubt anyone here is genuinely skeptical of the claim that most economists, policymakers and financial bigwigs today have a Keynesian-Monetarist perspective.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 11:31 pm 
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RangerDave:

Doesn't change the fact that Keynes was wrong.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2010 8:57 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Taskiss wrote:
But citation is needed.

Pretty hard to prove, too. "Most" is a hard number to quantify.


Agreed, at least in a formal context. If I was writing a paper on the subject, I'd have to provide a cite for that assertion. For a forum discussion like this, though, I don't think relatively uncontroversial statements really need to be backed up. I doubt anyone here is genuinely skeptical of the claim that most economists, policymakers and financial bigwigs today have a Keynesian-Monetarist perspective.

Ah, but this isn't the "conversational" controversy forum (as stupid as the distinction is). Furthermore, with this attitude, then you might as well stop discussing anything, and simply cite whatever is the most widely believed/practiced as the gospel truth that doesn't need to be talked about because it's right.

And even on top of that, clearly, everybody must be *right* about economics, and that's why our country is going bankrupt and we foresaw the situation years ago and worked to prevent/mitigate it. Oh, wait.

That's why it's an appeal to popularity, not even authority -- the "experts" don't have a good track record.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2010 9:00 pm 
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Kaffis Mark V wrote:
RangerDave wrote:
Taskiss wrote:
But citation is needed.

Pretty hard to prove, too. "Most" is a hard number to quantify.


Agreed, at least in a formal context. If I was writing a paper on the subject, I'd have to provide a cite for that assertion. For a forum discussion like this, though, I don't think relatively uncontroversial statements really need to be backed up. I doubt anyone here is genuinely skeptical of the claim that most economists, policymakers and financial bigwigs today have a Keynesian-Monetarist perspective.

Ah, but this isn't the "conversational" controversy forum (as stupid as the distinction is). Furthermore, with this attitude, then you might as well stop discussing anything, and simply cite whatever is the most widely believed/practiced as the gospel truth that doesn't need to be talked about because it's right.

And even on top of that, clearly, everybody must be *right* about economics, and that's why our country is going bankrupt and we foresaw the situation years ago and worked to prevent/mitigate it. Oh, wait.

That's why it's an appeal to popularity, not even authority -- the "experts" don't have a good track record.


Exactly. All of their so called expertise is within the framework of a system that is observably broken, and never works the way they say it will.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 9:35 am 
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Someone with demonstrated expertise still trumps the random blog poster.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 10:06 am 
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Kaffis Mark V wrote:
That's why it's an appeal to popularity, not even authority -- the "experts" don't have a good track record.


Who has a better track record? Nostradamus? Fringe economists have always cried wolf, and it's just coincidence when they're right.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 12:16 pm 
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More telling is there are plenty of Keynesians that predicted the economic collapse years in advance and aren't taking a bullish stance on the current state of things. "Mainsteam" doesn't mean Keynesian, it means telling people what they want to hear. This guy, for example, got a lot of credit for predicting the crash, and has been sidelined since because he continues to insist there was negative growth in 2009 and there will be less than 1% growth in 2010.


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