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PostPosted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:57 pm 
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I think we need to remember.. even in the odd chance that somehow savings are a leech...

In the past and in some cultures leeches are used for healing purposes. You cannot use the term as a negative without realizing that there is a positive aspect to the term you are trying to use.

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:15 pm 
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You win ds.

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:29 pm 
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basic econ about savings:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saving

"Saving is closely related to investment. By not using income to buy consumer goods and services, it is possible for resources to instead be invested by being used to produce fixed capital, such as factories and machinery. Saving can therefore be vital to increase the amount of fixed capital available, which contributes to economic growth.

However, increased saving does not always correspond to increased investment. If savings are stashed in a mattress or otherwise not deposited into a financial intermediary like a bank there is no chance for those savings to be recycled as investment by business. This means that saving may increase without increasing investment, possibly causing a short-fall of demand (a pile-up of inventories, a cut-back of production, employment, and income, and thus a recession) rather than to economic growth. In the short term, if saving falls below investment, it can lead to a growth of aggregate demand and an economic boom. In the long term if saving falls below investment it eventually reduces investment and detracts from future growth. Future growth is made possible by foregoing present consumption to increase investment. However savings kept in a mattress amount to an (interest-free) loan to the government or central bank, who can recycle this loan."

Nope, no leaches there. Savings are good, mmmmmkay? Even if you stash cash in the mattress.

I blame the education system. To think a freaking adult is this screwed in the head...it's something that should be drilled into kids at a very young age.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:15 am 
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Monte wrote:
Rynar wrote:
Savings are in no way a leetch. They are simply future spending. When enough future spending is realized, it indicates a prudent time for businesses to make investment.


Actually, they are a leech to the circular flow.


In no way, what-so-ever, in any school of economics, are savings a drain on the circular flow of money in an economy. Period.

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There are leeches and injections into that flow of income.


Perhaps if you deny the existence of the business cycle, and the necessity of recessions in a centralized economy to correct malinvestment, and you insist we can have constant growth in all sectors despite malinvestement... then you might be right, but you'd also be **** insane.

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Savings pulls money out of the flow.


Why do you presume that continued flow of resources into malinvestment is a good thing?

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That doesn't mean all savings are bad. It just is what it is. Every dollar spent is another person's income. Saving money takes income out of that system.


WTF is this ****? You are functionally denying the realities of malinvestment, and continually insisting that wealth is static. Do you even understand what money is?

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It's just basic economics.


On what **** planet?

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 10:53 am 
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Monte wrote:
You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but you're wrong. Government spending is one of the major portions of GDP, and when private spending falters, it can take up the slack. Taxes aren't a leech. They are simply part of the circular flow. Now, if the government sits on too high a surplus, then yes, like any other savings it represents a leech. But if that money is spent, it simply becomes someone else's income. Every dollar spent (no matter the source) is someone else's income.

Any money I make is going right back out to pay someone else and they are spending all they make to pay my salary, then we can just eliminate the need for currency completely, since pushing all those pieces paper around is a waste of resources. Then all we need a government agency to make sure that the resources and products we were previously using money to acquire, are just delivered to us. There might even a motto for this agency... something akin to from each according to his ability, to each according to his need.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 6:57 pm 
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Oi vey. For years this board screams and yells at me to go learn about economics. So I go learn about economics. What does the board do? Close it's ears and then screams and yells at me to go learn economics.

Look, savings *does* represent a leak from the circular flow of income. That's not necessarily bad until those savings become excessive. When that happens, people stop putting money into the economy by purchasing goods and services. When that happens, less is produced, and unemployment increases. In other words, we get further and further from equilibrium.

Don't conflate "leech" with "bad", necessarily. In fact, let's go with Leak. It's less image intensive, and probably a more accurate term. It's important to have sufficient savings to keep yourself afloat in times of trouble. However, from a macro perspective, too much savings means a reduction in aggregate demand, which means unemployment, which means less money being spent, which means a glut of supply, and so on and so forth.

Savings are a leakage. There are also injections. So long as the leak isn't too bad, it's not so bad a thing. In fact, it can have positive macro effects. It can also have negative effects.

Not every dollar put in the bank is invested into the economy. Much of it goes into required reserves.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:14 pm 
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Monte wrote:
Oi vey. For years this board screams and yells at me to go learn about economics. So I go learn about economics. What does the board do? Close it's ears and then screams and yells at me to go learn economics.

Look, savings *does* represent a leak from the circular flow of income. That's not necessarily bad until those savings become excessive. When that happens, people stop putting money into the economy by purchasing goods and services. When that happens, less is produced, and unemployment increases. In other words, we get further and further from equilibrium.

Don't conflate "leech" with "bad", necessarily. In fact, let's go with Leak. It's less image intensive, and probably a more accurate term. It's important to have sufficient savings to keep yourself afloat in times of trouble. However, from a macro perspective, too much savings means a reduction in aggregate demand, which means unemployment, which means less money being spent, which means a glut of supply, and so on and so forth.

Savings are a leakage. There are also injections. So long as the leak isn't too bad, it's not so bad a thing. In fact, it can have positive macro effects. It can also have negative effects.

Not every dollar put in the bank is invested into the economy. Much of it goes into required reserves.



Because you didn't learn economics. You learned a little bit about a single school of economic thought, but not quite enough to make statements consistent with the operative theories and political history of that school. You don't come anywhere close to demonstrating proficiency, or even basic understanding, of the many schools you criticize, which you can't peddle here because the people you are speaking with do, in fact, understand those various schools of thought or are making real effort to understand them. You shun any and all efforts by those of us who attempt to help you understand the underlying thinking of those schools, often in mocking tones, even when those efforts are not necessarily directed at you and instead are encouraged group study for the purposes of better discussion.

How can you claim to understand economics when you have no understanding of the schools of thought you oppose? How can you say you oppose them intellectually when you don't know what they are? Where they base their positions, and understanding? You couldn't possibly have made a dent in the study of Keynesianism if given credit for a year of constant study, much less have debunked all other schools of thought, and you can't debunk anything if you don't give other schools complete attention in order to find their logical flaws.

Yours has not been a study of economics. It has been a study of selectively applied ideology. There is a difference larger than oceans.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:47 pm 
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Rynar wrote:

Because you didn't learn economics. You learned a little bit about a single school of economic thought, but not quite enough to make statements consistent with the operative theories and political history of that school.


Sigh.

Our class covered a *lot* of different models of macroeconomic thought, given it was a macroeconomics class. Supply side, demand side, and classical economics were all covered and presented very well.


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Yours has not been a study of economics. It has been a study of selectively applied ideology. There is a difference larger than oceans.


Austrian economics fails on it's face. Tell me - where in the world do we see Austrian economics applied successfully? Answer - *nowhere*. In fact, the closer any nation has come to an Austrian model, or a Chicago model, or any other similar model, the worse the outcomes have been. Hell, Austria doesn't even use Austrian economics.

And there's good reason for that. The Austrian school is more philosophy, and less math. It presumes that people make decisions based on rational self interest. It falsely lays the blame of the business cycle at the feet of government action, when the business cycle clearly existed *before* the government programs the school criticizes existed.

Do-nothing schools of economics were shown to be bunk in the great depression. People can wail and gnash their teeth about it, but in the end, the theories you espouse have *long* since been disproven. They are ideological holdovers from a time looked upon with rose-tinted glasses.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:51 pm 
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Your last post reinforces my point more than anything I could have ever said would have.

Tell me, Monte, where has the Austrian School been put to the test?

YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND YOUR CHOSEN IDEOLOGICAL MATCH WELL ENOUGH TO VOUCH FOR IT, MUCH LESS UNDERSTAND THOSE YOU CLAIM TO OPPOSE.

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Exactly my point, Rynar. It's never really been tested. However, the rest of the world has been using macroeconomic theories successfully for a very long time.

Several countries have attempted to use Austrian concepts and other similar concepts, to no avail. Privitization of programs like social security failed miserably in Central America. In New Zealand, massive efforts to privitze nearly every government service resulted first with lowered inflation, but eventually with seriously failed outcomes in terms of health, education, average wages, and unemployment.

In other words, the closer any nation gets to Austrian models, or other similar models, the worse that nation does overall. Some folks make out like bandits, though. For example, the vast majority of the growth that New Zealand saw focused almost entirely at the top. The bottom earners endured the worst of the consequences.

My class confirmed for me what I had already surmised - that the Austrian school and similar schools were rightfully tossed in the dustbin after the Great Depression. It also confirmed for me that the purpose of those schools is to force a particular macro outcome, despite a focus on microeconomics. That macro outcome is just another road to serfdom. The real road to serfdom, actually.

Any economic model that rejects government as a rule of thumb is simply not realistic. Any economic model that ignores externalities like war, pollution, or natural disaster is also not a serious model.

There's a reason the Austrian school is more philosophy than it is math.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 8:09 pm 
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Monte wrote:
Exactly my point, Rynar. It's never really been tested. However, the rest of the world has been using macroeconomic theories successfully for a very long time.


Oh really? Open your eyes, and look around.

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Several countries have attempted to use Austrian concepts and other similar concepts, to no avail. Privitization of programs like social security failed miserably in Central America. In New Zealand, massive efforts to privitze nearly every government service resulted first with lowered inflation, but eventually with seriously failed outcomes in terms of health, education, average wages, and unemployment.


Blatantly false.

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In other words, the closer any nation gets to Austrian models, or other similar models, the worse that nation does overall. Some folks make out like bandits, though. For example, the vast majority of the growth that New Zealand saw focused almost entirely at the top. The bottom earners endured the worst of the consequences.


Further evidence you don't understand the school you are criticizing.

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My class confirmed for me what I had already surmised - that the Austrian school and similar schools were rightfully tossed in the dustbin after the Great Depression. It also confirmed for me that the purpose of those schools is to force a particular macro outcome, despite a focus on microeconomics. That macro outcome is just another road to serfdom. The real road to serfdom, actually.


So it wasn't a class in so much as an applied confirmation bias? Why won't you take the class from Mises I suggested with me?

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Any economic model that rejects government as a rule of thumb is simply not realistic. Any economic model that ignores externalities like war, pollution, or natural disaster is also not a serious model.


Again, farther evidence you don't understand the school of thought you are critiquing.

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There's a reason the Austrian school is more philosophy than it is math.


Really? The Austrian school doesn't use math? Seriously, Monte, I will lay off if you will agree to start an in depth study of the school. Worst case scenario, you get to prove me a fool.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 8:09 pm 
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You took a class that taught the idea that savings is a drain on the economy?

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My class confirmed for me what I had already surmised
There's a name for that, you know. "Confirmation bias".

I'm not sure the class taught what you think it did. Well, unless you took the class from an avowed communist, that is.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 9:39 pm 
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Rynar wrote:

Oh really? Open your eyes, and look around.


Yes, really. Since abandoning the failed classical economic principles that guided us into the Great Depression, we have seen a great deal of growth and progress, economically. Now, when we listen to people who want to take us back to the kind of economic theories that caused the Depression, we generally backslide.

There is no doubt, however, that proper application of macroeconomic concepts does what it's supposed to do - correct the cycle. You cannot end the business cycle. You can, however, respond to it. If we were in an inflationary period, I would be arguing for spending cuts and across the board tax increases. We're not.

We're currently operating inside the Production Possibility curve - in other words, unemployment. We need to shift aggregate demand to get closer to equilibrium. We have a number of tools at our disposal to do it. None of those tools includes major spending cuts.

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Blatantly false.


Oooookay. You can, if you want, believe that because these countries didn't do exactly everything according to the Austrian economic bible, it didn't count. However, that's not really my argument. The closer those nations get to the Austrian model (privitization, minimal government and social services if any), the worse it got for them. It's completely true. But then again, so is the threat of HIGCC. I'm not gonna convince you of that reality any more than I'm going ton convince you of the BS that is Austrian and other classical economic theories.

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So it wasn't a class in so much as an applied confirmation bias? Why won't you take the class from Mises I suggested with me?


No, it was a class. I learned a ton from it. I drew my own conclusions regarding these issues based on the things I learned. I assure you, it wasn't spoon fed. The instructor was fail, and to get the grade I got, I had to study the text closely. It was a very balanced description of various economic theories.

Mises is...hilarious.

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Again, farther evidence you don't understand the school of thought you are critiquing.


What does Austrian economics say about costs born by unrelated third parties?

I didn't say the Austrian school didn't use math. I said it was more philosophy than math. The Austrian school is simply a road to serfdom. It's an economic school that's purpose, in my opinion, is to create two distinct classes - servant and owner.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 9:54 pm 
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The Austrian school is simply a road to serfdom.
Why would you think that a bad thing?
Monte wrote:
Yes, rights do include limitations on freedom.
Monte wrote:
You have to understand that, Ideally, I don't think doctors should be in private practice when it comes to health care. I think they should be state employees.
Serfdom, slavery, six of one, half dozen of the other...

You're damn quick to give up established rights and freedoms to satisfy your democratic socialist Xanadu

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My fiance is a school teacher. She's a public servant. She's certainly not a serf. She makes a good wage, has nice benefits, vacation time and sick pay, maternity leave, etc.

That's not serfdom. A nationalized medical industry, in my mind, looks like that. Doctors that are paid a wage and benefits, etc, for the work they do. It's a system that everyone pays into, and everyone has an equal right to access.

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Forcing folks to work for the state instead of letting them provide their service directly to the public is serfdom, slavery, take your pick. It's reprehensible.

A teacher has the option to work for a private school so that's not serfdom. Teachers have the choice to work for the state or practice in private capacity - something you have said you'd prevent doctors from doing.

Taking away folks' options ... their freedom. All in the name of socialism.

Nice.

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Monte wrote:
My fiance is a school teacher. She's a public servant. She's certainly not a serf. She makes a good wage, has nice benefits, vacation time and sick pay, maternity leave, etc.

That's not serfdom. A nationalized medical industry, in my mind, looks like that. Doctors that are paid a wage and benefits, etc, for the work they do. It's a system that everyone pays into, and everyone has an equal right to access.


Holding up the public school system as a model of what health care should look like is not going to win you any converts to your way of thinking, in my opinion.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 10:18 pm 
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Monty:

Good for you for taking an econ class. I am sincerely glad you've decided to attempt to increase your knowledge base in areas you believe weak in yourself.

That said, I'm not sure how you can dismiss the claims of confirmation bias given this statement you made:

Monty wrote:
I drew my own conclusions regarding these issues based on the things I learned. The instructor was fail, and to get the grade I got, I had to study the text closely.


In other words, your teacher didn't teach you anything, but you read a book and just applied your opinions to it as you read.

Given your overall self-admitted weakness in mathematics, are you sure you should feel righteous about jumping to conclusions based on a 3 hour community college econ course in which you basically self taught, enabling you to apply your biases to the readings?

This is doubly so given your own, self-admitted weakness in even the most basic microeconomics, which are the fundamental underpinnings of macroeconomics.

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DFK! wrote:
Monty:

Good for you for taking an econ class. I am sincerely glad you've decided to attempt to increase your knowledge base in areas you believe weak in yourself.


I very much enjoyed it. Like all my other classes, I aced it.


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That said, I'm not sure how you can dismiss the claims of confirmation bias given this statement you made:


It's extremly difficult on this board to overcome the prevalent biases among the majority of conservative posters here. I could point out several articles, critical of Austrian economics, that agree with me. Articles written by people significantly more qualified to speak on the subject than I am. They go into great detail about the Austrian's school near-disdain for mathematical and empirical models for their philosophy. The Austrian school has a habit of making a philosophical statement and then claiming it's true a piori. It's a ginormous flaw in the school. When I say it's more philosophy than math, I'm not trying to be a dick. I'm just stating facts.

Monty wrote:

In other words, your teacher didn't teach you anything, but you read a book and just applied your opinions to it as you read.


I could go into detail of how fail she was. It would be an exercise in hilarious (how many times can you say "circular flow" in a completely unrelated context in one class? Seven, apparently). I didn't just read the text and then toss my opinions at what I read, nor did I force it to fit into a pre-existing frame. It did, however, wind up confirming a lot of my previous suspicions about things like supply side economics, classical economics, and our history concerning the causes of the great depression.


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Given your overall self-admitted weakness in mathematics, are you sure you should feel righteous about jumping to conclusions based on a 3 hour community college econ course in which you basically self taught, enabling you to apply your biases to the readings?



Aaaand the inevitable weaksauce attack. Math is my weak point, but it was also apparently the weak point of Austrian economics. In fact, if they offered a class in that, I should probably take it. It will be a lot easier to understand without all the pesky math to get in the way of the philosophy.

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Monte wrote:
It's extremly difficult on this board to overcome the prevalent biases among the majority of conservative posters here. I could point out several articles, critical of Austrian economics, that agree with me. Articles written by people significantly more qualified to speak on the subject than I am. They go into great detail about the Austrian's school near-disdain for mathematical and empirical models for their philosophy. The Austrian school has a habit of making a philosophical statement and then claiming it's true a piori. It's a ginormous flaw in the school. When I say it's more philosophy than math, I'm not trying to be a dick. I'm just stating facts.


Except that is your opinion of "fact." One you haven't sourced, I'll point out. There are others on the forum who have sourced dissenting opinions. Given said sourcing, their opinion of "fact," logically speaking, holds water while yours does not.

Monty wrote:
DFK wrote:
I didn't just read the text and then toss my opinions at what I read, nor did I force it to fit into a pre-existing frame. It did, however, wind up confirming a lot of my previous suspicions about things like supply side economics, classical economics, and our history concerning the causes of the great depression.


Again, if she was failing to educate, you were simply reading a book.


Monty wrote:
DFK! wrote:
Given your overall self-admitted weakness in mathematics, are you sure you should feel righteous about jumping to conclusions based on a 3 hour community college econ course in which you basically self taught, enabling you to apply your biases to the readings?



Aaaand the inevitable weaksauce attack. Math is my weak point, but it was also apparently the weak point of Austrian economics. In fact, if they offered a class in that, I should probably take it. It will be a lot easier to understand without all the pesky math to get in the way of the philosophy.


Well this point is epic fail:

1) Pointing out things you've publicly stated to be true literally cannot be an attack.

2) Rynar was just asking you to take a course on the school of economics you're deriding.

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Central American nations modled their economies off of Reagan's economic council which was Chicago School not Austrian, they also still used Keynesian monetary policy (since the Chicago school does).

And as a question could you post the course description?

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Farther wrote:

Holding up the public school system as a model of what health care should look like is not going to win you any converts to your way of thinking, in my opinion.



Except that I didn't do that. At least, not in the way you are implying. The public school system needs a lot of work. We spend far too much energy developing new and better ways to kill people, and far to little on new and better ways to educate people.

That being said, the comparison I was attempting to make was pretty simple. I see education as a right, and thus I believe the government has an obligation to provide a free, high quality education to all Americans. I also see health care as a right, and believe the government has an obligation to provide free, high quality health care to all Americans. It has nothing to do with doctors, who presumably went into medicine in order to provide high quality health care to people.

I don't honest care how the system works itself out, so long as it provides free high quality health care to all Americans. I am definitely willing to compromise on the free part. I'm even willing to say "let people under the age of 55 buy in to medicare at cost". A public health insurance plan would be keen. A nationalized system would be best.

Yes, a nationalized system would mean that doctors would have to adjust. However, we have public and private schools working side by side in this country. I see no reason we couldn't have a similar situation in regards to health care. The goal is free (or nearly free) high quality health care for all Americans. Because I feel it's a right.

Now, I don't think that the government should hold a gun to a doctor's head and make them provide care. However, if we went to a nationalized system, and a Doctor had a serious objection to that, he could certainly do something else for a living. Perhaps plastic surgery, or teach? Maybe we would see more doctors get into the business motivated not by the potential of great wealth, but the potential to do great things and provide great care to patients. Plenty of doctors get into medicine for that reason, anyway.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 11:00 am 
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Monte wrote:
The public school system needs a lot of work. We spend far too much energy developing new and better ways to kill people, and far to little on new and better ways to educate people.

I actually disagree here (not the defense comment, that's separate). Far too much time and resources is spent on flavor of the month education styles and systems that attempt to radically change programs, usually in some attempt to correct a statistically small portion of the students. Unfortunately, we don't have a "R&D" system separate from the general practice, so all these new plans are unleashed on students, who unfortunately, can't go back and redo what fails to work. They are stuck with it, and equally unfortunate, it usually takes several years to see whether or not it works, so students that get stuck in this "new" system are screwed if it doesn't work.

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Yes, a nationalized system would mean that doctors would have to adjust. However, we have public and private schools working side by side in this country. I see no reason we couldn't have a similar situation in regards to health care. The goal is free (or nearly free) high quality health care for all Americans. Because I feel it's a right.

And yet, you have on numerous occasions blasted the private schools are elitist, providing benefits not available to public schools, and decried the system as unfair. Exactly what inspires you to think the public and private health solutions would be near equal?

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Maybe we would see more doctors get into the business motivated not by the potential of great wealth, but the potential to do great things and provide great care to patients. Plenty of doctors get into medicine for that reason, anyway.

So what we need a tuition czar for universities to keep the costs of medical education down so the future doctors can afford their new jobs working for clinics.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 12:08 pm 
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Interesting read from the WSJ about a report produced by the EU banks and the effect of stimulus spending on the GDP, found here.

Doing the Austerity Math wrote:
Will austerity sink European economies? Or will fiscal consolidation instead pave the way for faster growth? The debate divides policy makers, economists and voters. A key consideration is the size of the fiscal multiplier, or how much bang for its buck a government gets in terms of gross domestic product. Some evidence supports the cutters.

A fiscal multiplier above one implies a dollar of government spending generates more than a dollar of GDP; a fiscal multiplier below one implies that it is less effective. A working paper from the European Central Bank estimates that fiscal policy in the euro area has become less effective over time, with an increase in government spending of 1% of GDP generating a response of just over 0.5%, down from over 1% in the late 1980s.

A fiscal multiplier below one doesn't automatically mean government-stimulus efforts are wasted, since the boost to GDP could still be important to counteract falling private demand. But the ECB paper argues that the decline in effectiveness is due to rising government debt; as private-sector concerns about the sustainability of public finances increase, individuals and companies rein back spending amid fears of future tax increases. With the euro-zone bond-market crisis, this process may have reached its logical conclusion.

Not all government spending is equal: Multipliers on capital investment are reckoned to be much higher, for instance, than on government consumption or tax cuts. But if the fiscal multiplier overall is less than one, then tightening shouldn't be self-defeating: Public finances can improve even with weak growth.

Better public finances should also reduce the risk premiums investors demand on government bonds; this, in turn, should make risk assets more attractive, providing companies with better financing conditions.

Indeed, sometimes fiscal tightening appears to drive economic growth. A study of OECD countries from 1970 to 2007 by Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna shows that of 107 episodes in which severe fiscal tightening took place, growth accelerated significantly relative to the G-7 average on 26 occasions, or 24%.

Remarkably, this is slightly higher than the 22% of periods when very loose fiscal policy drove better growth.

A vital question is whether private-sector confidence is boosted by austerity. If it is, and growth picks up, then the really important debate about tightening still lies ahead—and in the realm of monetary, rather than fiscal, policy.
—Richard Barley


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 09, 2010 12:16 pm 
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I keep seeing serfdom thrown around lately. Which talking head put forth this notion? Not saying I disagree since I haven't heard the argument, just wondering what conservative meme I missed out on.

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