Khross wrote:
Diamondeye:
There is a pertinent element to Coro's post. This discussion requires a fairly broad understand of empire. And empire is something I've made a large part of my life's study. Empire is not limited to the specific historical empires we name and commodify in written and educational narratives. Russian did inherit the majority of the former Soviet empire's material and intellectual wealth. While other former Soviet states have certain prospered to lesser or greater relative degrees, that Soviet empire's shadow is still very significant in the current geopolitical climate.
Coro's post is pertinent only in that it states the perfectly obvious. No one is making the case that Russia is not a successor to the Soviet Union. However, them both being "empires" of one sort or another does not mean they are the same country. By this reasoning, the inclusion of Germany in NATO would make us allies with the same country that lead the Axis.
The Soviet Union, as an assemblage of Soviet Republics, as they were called, was not simply some mechanism for Russia to control the various smaller republics; it essentially inherited control of them from Imperial Russia.
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To some degree, Russia has been out maneuvering NATO and U.S. diplomatic endeavors in Ukraine and eastern, former-Soviet territories. Annexing Crimea is particularly problematic, given the fact that it was not until Yanukovich became the Ukrainian president that their drive to join NATO through a special supervisory process stopped. Some level of mutual defense obligation was owed to Ukraine by NATO at the time.
That's actually the problem. Ukraine wasn't part of NATO; rather they were talked into giving up their nuclear weapons in return dor "Some level" of protection.. which ended up being none. Ukraine bought into a bad deal, but they were as much responsible for buying into "nonproliferation uber alles" and this modern fantasy that we're at some point where serious conflict is all behind us, and were insisting within their own Defense Ministry as recently as 2011 that no one would ever attack them, and they needed the army only for internal security.
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I must stress that I am not speculating the missile data in question contributed to Russian decisions at all, mind you. That just serves as an illustration of the geopolitical capital and gamesmanship going on that moment concerning Russia and NATO's expanding membership.
That said, Putin is very much an old guard Soviet apparatchik who knows what to do with power and how to be efficient, if not exactly ethical in his governance. He's better equipped for the global brinkmanship going on right now. 2011 is not so far in the past and that data is incredibly useful. We have to remember that the Russian population has produced some of the most brilliant minds of the 20th Century and certain traditions and monolithic institutions still exist. While it is getting increasingly harder to contain information, the Russians are certainly better equipped to keep their research quiet than we are at the moment. The total number of American made Trident missiles in circulation is a very large number of missiles. Revealing specific distributions and perhaps more information, gives Russian a significant increase in the accuracy of their projections and estimation of NATO nuclear capabilities by member states. It assists in the strategic and tactical development to a high degree, as you no doubt know.
Putin's character is well known and I don't think there is much dispute over his mentality. Putin is far more calculating and savvy at exploiting international political conventions, and using the right buzzwords than his Soviet predecessors ever were. As to the numbers of missiles available to the UK, that information is not as significant as it might seem because the UK is well known to possess only 4
Vanguard class subs, and their missile capacity is well known. Their rate of operational readiness is not hard to determine either.
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Compromising NATO compromises the United States because of information held by actors and agents in NATO installations and organizations from military and fulfillment of our obligations to the organization. Beyond, we have significant resources both human and material in those installations that we use to contain or at least pressure those nations or entities we truly do feel are threats. Relations with Russian are prickly at the very best right now.
Ostensibly yes, but on the other hand NATO is presently funded 75% by the U.S. and some case can be made that NATO is beholden to it's members' willingness to shove the bill off onto this country. The U.K. is one of the worst offenders in terms of excessive defense cuts in order to fund almost anything else.
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There are massive military knowledge benefits with this information, and I'm not going to speculate on any specifics or even more detailed generalities in that regard you would understand more than me. The point is, it's a material military and strategic gain for the Russians in an extremely tense and complicated, near Cold War situation.
It is a gain, but the information regarding the specific serial numbers of Tridents passed to the UK is more a matter of confirming things Russia already had a pretty good idea of. There's also the simple fact that the U.K. decided to go with a U.S. system, and not one completely under its own control - not just in that it purchased Trident, but in that the entire loading and unloading procedure uses U.S. facilities in King's Bay, and the missiles are "pooled" with American missiles and exchanged as needed for maintenance. While this does not excuse Obama, it does greatly compromise the UK in that their defense secrets really aren't entirely their own.
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The Middle East further complicates the matter because it elevates Russia's significance in Europe for energy and fuel purposes, particularly as Crimea gives them further control over shipping lanes and pipeline destinations. The economic pressures coinciding with military expansion points to wide spread economic separation in the broader geopolitical regions. Eastern Europe is still hemorrhaging cash in a lot of ways, and intellectual flight is only now slowing down, but not exactly receding fast enough that the area is going to stop being vulnerable to Russian economic suppression. They learned a lot from the last 120 years of US Economic Supremacy.
While true, this doesn't really speak to the issue of treason.
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So, the Rosenbergs ostensibly provided drawings and sketches cribbed from documents viewed while Ethel's brother had access to Los Alamos. They were found guilty of actively spying for the Soviets and much of their actual communications with the Russians are redacted. The evidence, however, was damning by and large. If the detonation mechanisms were revealed to the Soviets, as simple as they were (in relative terms), Judge Kaufman's characterization of their contribution to Soviet nuclear development is only a bit over-stated, particularly given the outcome of the Space Race in the 60s.
Which I think makes it hard to claim that the information Obama provided regarding the UK deterrent was anywhere near the significance of what the Rosenbergs passed. In truth, the limiting factor on the Soviet deterrent was making their long range missiles effective and reliable (the booster used for Yuri Gagarin's flight, used as the SS-6 was utterly impractical, requiring 20 hours refueling on an open launch pad, and the SS-7 was plagued with technical problems and still incredibly vulnerable). That problem was not really resolved until the mid-late 1960s; up to that point it was actually reasonable to state that (ironically, in context of this discussion) that most Russian weapons would be destroyed by the RAF before SAC even got there.
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Comparatively speaking, given contemporary Russia, the party largely responsible for adhering to and enforcing the former Soviet obligations in various treaties and arms reduction agreements, now knows exactly how far it has to comply or not comply as needed. With wide spread civil unrest and discord within range of their most portable and potentially disruptive small and medium range weapons, that information is particularly valuable in my estimation. Indeed, Russian ultimately shunned the START agreement.
Which really should have surprised no one - this speaks to the INF issues of the other thread. Russia has a fundamentally different view of nuclear weapons than we do, and that is driven by its different geographic situation, not to mention its history of getting disastrously invaded. The Great Patriotic War forms a very different image in Russian culture than WWII does in the U.S., and despite jokes about Americans thinking they won the war all by themsevles, Russians are far worse. I know a man whose wife grew up in Poland in the 1980s and she was not even aware that there was a Pacific Theater, or of the Normandy invasion until well after she came to this country.
The upshot of this is that we tend to assume Russia is the mirror image of us, and just wants to reduce the risk of nuclear war and the cost of maintaining a deterrent, when for Russia the need to avoid nuclear war is subordinated to the need to avoid losing. The Societs never really agreed with the idea that a nuclear war was unwinnable, and that has carried forward- ironically reinforced by the realities of small deterrents versus large. A case could be made that regarding nuclear war as winnable or unwinnable is a self-fulfilling prophecy in either direction.
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Putin may be banking on the fact that Obama is a paper tiger. He can force our hand by throwing in with Iran or Syria against Israel. Granted, that's just a low probability potentiality, but the information can be used to exploit our defense obligations against us.
I believe he's already done that. The existence of the post-Warsaw Pact Russian defensive alliance gets little play, as it would undermine the narrative of the press and almost everyone in government that NATO is a pro-forma defense, just in case, without
immediate threat. Bringing Iran into this alliance is something continuously flirted with, and Iran has the size, economic power, and technological advancement to become the equivalent of the UK to Russia. Afghanistan and Serbia are observer members, making the potential future of this organization a parade of the disgruntled.
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Nevertheless, the biggest problem is that Obama disclosed BRITISH information to the Soviets. That information was beyond classified and compromised the integrity of our relations with the United Kingdom. The amount of information revealed could be potentially staggering in consequences. We have treaties and agreements and obligations to the UK far beyond NATO obligations. Revealing their information seriously compromises the integrity of our joint intelligence and defense development projects the world over. Those strategic implications are beyond unfathomable in my opinion.
Indeed. The problem lies in classifying this as treason. What exactly is the criteria for being an "enemy"? While Russia is not the kitten many people would like to believe, they are also hardly the picture of Stalinist belligerence of the 1950s when the Rosenbergs were spying for them. Even then, the lack of active conflict calls into question the categorization as an "enemy". In some respects, it's easier to classify China as an enemym and was throughout the Cold War given their active participation in the Korean War.