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Keynes vs. Hayek - Fear the Boom and Bust! https://gladerebooted.net/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=1569 |
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Author: | RangerDave [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:11 am ] |
Post subject: | Keynes vs. Hayek - Fear the Boom and Bust! |
[youtube]d0nERTFo-Sk[/youtube] Howdy everyone. |
Author: | Talya [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:11 am ] |
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Welcome Back, RD. |
Author: | Jeryn [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:16 am ] |
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Bah beat me to this by 4 minutes! (and howdy!) |
Author: | Dalantia [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:41 am ] |
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Welcome back, RD. |
Author: | FarSky [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:44 am ] |
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RD! Yay! |
Author: | Dash [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:45 am ] |
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Civil War! I'm with Hayek! Hi RD =) |
Author: | Khross [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:49 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Keynes vs. Hayek - Fear the Boom and Bust! |
I'm curious as to where RangerDave sits on that divide; I think we all know where my position and such resides. |
Author: | Xerxes [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:19 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Keynes vs. Hayek - Fear the Boom and Bust! |
Welcome back RangerDave! |
Author: | RangerDave [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:37 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Keynes vs. Hayek - Fear the Boom and Bust! |
Thanks for the welcome back, folks! Khross wrote: I'm curious as to where RangerDave sits on that divide; I think we all know where my position and such resides. Well, I lack the knowledge necessary to really analyze and compare their views, but as you know, I tend to (i) split the difference between competing views from intelligent, good-faith advocates and (ii) trust expert consensus absent compelling evidence of error. So, given the reputations and respect both Keynes and Hayek enjoy, I'm inclined to be wishy-washy and say that I think both offer useful but imperfect insights into how the economy (and government intervention therein) works. In terms of policy, I suspect the dominance of Keynesian (and Monetarist) theory in contemporary economics has probably been a bit too overwhelming and is thus in need of a corrective critique, particularly as regards "long-run" sustainability. However, it seems hard to deny the usefulness of Keynesian/Monetarist policy interventions in softening the short- and medium-run pain of economic downturns. In other words, I have no flippin' idea, so I'm gonna play it safe! *chuckle* |
Author: | Vindicarre [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:43 pm ] |
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Wimp! Heheh, WB RD. |
Author: | Khross [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:44 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Keynes vs. Hayek - Fear the Boom and Bust! |
RangerDave: Alright, I'll state quite simply that "John Maynard Keynes was wrong" (tm), and give you this link as a starting point ... "How Government Prolonged the Great Depression |
Author: | Elmarnieh [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:45 pm ] |
Post subject: | |
RD this idea that reality exists in the middle is illogical in the extreme. If we have two people with two opposing views both with a large number of adherents. The first desires to kill you and the second desires for you not to be harmed - is the correct solution then to only have yourself maimed? |
Author: | Diamondeye [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:50 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: |
Elmarnieh wrote: RD this idea that reality exists in the middle is illogical in the extreme. If we have two people with two opposing views both with a large number of adherents. The first desires to kill you and the second desires for you not to be harmed - is the correct solution then to only have yourself maimed? You're doing a good job of providing an example of a Golden Mean fallacy and you are correct; the right answer is not necessarily in the middle all the time. However, merely showing that the fallacy exists is not enough - you need to show why the right answer is not necessarily in the middle in this particular case. The example you gave only shows how the fallacy works; it doesn't establish anything about this issue. |
Author: | Elmarnieh [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:52 pm ] |
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I cannot show this to anyone in the specific incident until they understand the mistake in the general. |
Author: | Talya [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:53 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Re: |
Diamondeye wrote: Elmarnieh wrote: RD this idea that reality exists in the middle is illogical in the extreme. If we have two people with two opposing views both with a large number of adherents. The first desires to kill you and the second desires for you not to be harmed - is the correct solution then to only have yourself maimed? You're doing a good job of providing an example of a Golden Mean fallacy and you are correct; the right answer is not necessarily in the middle all the time. However, merely showing that the fallacy exists is not enough - you need to show why the right answer is not necessarily in the middle in this particular case. The example you gave only shows how the fallacy works; it doesn't establish anything about this issue. It's also possible there is no "right way" or "wrong way" here. Two mutual fund managers may take two very different tactics with regard to investing, and yet achieve the same end result. Neither was right, neither was wrong. It is entirely possible that someone could combine elements of the two and end up performing far better. It is also possible that someone could combine elements of the two and end up performing far worse. There's a tendency among ideologues to look at the world in binary ways. Many, perhaps most things are not simply right or wrong, black or white. |
Author: | Diamondeye [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:54 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: |
Elmarnieh wrote: I cannot show this to anyone in the specific incident until they understand the mistake in the general. So why didn't you show it right after you gave the example to illustrate the fallacy? |
Author: | Diamondeye [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:57 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Re: |
Talya wrote: Diamondeye wrote: Elmarnieh wrote: RD this idea that reality exists in the middle is illogical in the extreme. If we have two people with two opposing views both with a large number of adherents. The first desires to kill you and the second desires for you not to be harmed - is the correct solution then to only have yourself maimed? You're doing a good job of providing an example of a Golden Mean fallacy and you are correct; the right answer is not necessarily in the middle all the time. However, merely showing that the fallacy exists is not enough - you need to show why the right answer is not necessarily in the middle in this particular case. The example you gave only shows how the fallacy works; it doesn't establish anything about this issue. It's also possible there is no "right way" or "wrong way" here. Two mutual fund managers may take two very different tactics with regard to investing, and yet achieve the same end result. Neither was right, neither was wrong. It is entirely possible that someone could combine elements of the two and end up performing far better. It is also possible that someone could combine elements of the two and end up performing far worse. There's a tendency among ideologues to look at the world in binary ways. Many, perhaps most things are not simply right or wrong, black or white. That is all true, and is implied by the name "Golden Mean fallacy" although perhaps "Golden Median fallacy" would be more linguistically correct. The name comes from assuming that the best solution is the "average" of all possible solutions, whether 2 or more, and whether extreme or relatively similar. |
Author: | Elmarnieh [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:05 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Re: |
Diamondeye wrote: Elmarnieh wrote: I cannot show this to anyone in the specific incident until they understand the mistake in the general. So why didn't you show it right after you gave the example to illustrate the fallacy? There is no point in speaking more until it is affirmed that the general case is understood. |
Author: | RangerDave [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:08 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Keynes vs. Hayek - Fear the Boom and Bust! |
Khross wrote: RangerDave: Alright, I'll state quite simply that "John Maynard Keynes was wrong" (tm), and give you this link as a starting point ... "How Government Prolonged the Great Depression Thanks for the link, Khross. I'll give it a read when I get home from work tonight. Regarding your comment that Keynes was just flat wrong, though, do you really believe his theories were completely and utterly wrong on every major point, or do you think at least some of his views have merit? If the latter, could you point out a few of the topics about which you think he had useful insights? |
Author: | RangerDave [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:21 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: |
Elmarnieh wrote: RD this idea that reality exists in the middle is illogical in the extreme. Agreed, if the assertion is in the form of "B is between A and C; therefore B is correct." However, that's not what I'm asserting. My view is that "Neither A nor C are likely to be 100% correct or 100% incorrect; therefore there is some combination of the two (though not necessarily the midpoint), B, which is likely to be more correct than either A or C." It's an assertion of probability given the available evidence (and my limited ability to evaluate such evidence), not logical necessity. |
Author: | Elmarnieh [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:41 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Re: |
RangerDave wrote: Elmarnieh wrote: RD this idea that reality exists in the middle is illogical in the extreme. Agreed, if the assertion is in the form of "B is between A and C; therefore B is correct." However, that's not what I'm asserting. My view is that "Neither A nor C are likely to be 100% correct or 100% incorrect; therefore there is some combination of the two (though not necessarily the midpoint), B, which is likely to be more correct than either A or C." It's an assertion of probability given the available evidence (and my limited ability to evaluate such evidence), not logical necessity. It is not much better to be of the consideration that "B is between A and C; therefore B is more likley correct.". |
Author: | RangerDave [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:02 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Re: |
Elmarnieh wrote: It is not much better to be of the consideration that "B is between A and C; therefore B is more likley correct.". Think of it like an investing strategy. Given necessarily imperfect knowledge, I am more likely to protect and gradually increase my assets if I have a diversified portfolio than if I put all my eggs in one basket. Ditto for economic theories. Given the limits of human knowledge and wisdom, neither the Keynesians nor the Austrians (nor anyone else, for that matter) are likely to have it all figured out, so a policy approach that considers and incorporates elements of both perspectives is more likely to avoid catastrophic error and thus be successful in the long-run than a policy approach that marries itself wholly to a single world-view. |
Author: | Elmarnieh [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:08 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Re: |
RangerDave wrote: Elmarnieh wrote: It is not much better to be of the consideration that "B is between A and C; therefore B is more likley correct.". Think of it like an investing strategy. Given necessarily imperfect knowledge, I am more likely to protect and gradually increase my assets if I have a diversified portfolio than if I put all my eggs in one basket. Ditto for economic theories. Given the limits of human knowledge and wisdom, neither the Keynesians nor the Austrians (nor anyone else, for that matter) are likely to have it all figured out, so a policy approach that considers and incorporates elements of both perspectives is more likely to avoid catastrophic error and thus be successful in the long-run than a policy approach that marries itself wholly to a single world-view. I thought the scope was limited to the theory of the business cycle outlined in the video - not the scope of the entirity of the two schools of thought. |
Author: | RangerDave [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:48 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Re: |
Elmarnieh wrote: I thought the scope was limited to the theory of the business cycle outlined in the video - not the scope of the entirity of the two schools of thought. Ah, I see. Nah, I posted the video mostly because its general topic and funny/geeky feel are things I associate with the Glade, so I figured it'd be a good way of saying "hello" in my first post back. The specific issues addressed in it go beyond my knowledge base, so when we started getting into a real conversation, I was just talking about Keynesian vs. Austrian schools of thought in general. |
Author: | Elmarnieh [ Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:55 pm ] |
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Oh ok. Keynes sucks. |
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