According to an estimate from the state Employment Development Department, California employers shed 871,000 jobs in 2009. If that estimate holds up when final revisions are released this month, California's job losses would be far more grim than first believed. The agency reported as recently as Jan. 22 that California employers chopped 579,000 jobs from payrolls in 2009.

What part of "estimate" don't you understand Vindicarre?

But all estimates, even good educated ones are at the end of the day still a guess.

No they're not, they're estimates.


I have a business. We've been around for a hundred years, and in our first year we sold one thousand widgets. Every year we've sold one thousand more widgets than last year. Linear growth. I project or estimate that next year I'm going to sell one thousand more widgets than last year, based on my previous trend.

Your theory: Instead, I sell five hundred more, a difference in my estimate of 50%. I have 500 left that I've paid for, it's no big deal though, because it was just a guess that I made.

Reality: Instead, I sell five hundred more, a difference in my estimate of 50%. I have 500 left that I've paid for, and so now I have serious cash flow issues and may need to lay people off because I had only planned on having 0 left.

They've been doing this for decades, you'd think that they would have some established methodology that was effective. That's the problem, it would require cogent thought.

Please, read the goddamn article. They are not "guessing at the future", or "trying to guess the future", the "estimates" came out in 2010. Yes, "it's yet another good example of the government being lousy at numbers." A stellar example.

ALOL @ the complete lack of comprehension.

Thanks guys.

Do you guys know how those estimates are done? And based off of what past metrics? And how is the data collected, and with what time variance?

I say we let California fail. Then we nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.