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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 1:07 pm 
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 84742.html

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Democrats will be gulping this morning at the Quinnipiac Poll's latest results. For the first time in the survey's history, Americans believe by a 48% to 40% margin that President Obama doesn't deserve re-election. Almost as stinging, a plurality believe the country would have been better off if John McCain had beaten Mr. Obama in 2008.

The Quinnipiac Poll is pored over by political observers because it has a good predictive record and because its large sample size of nearly 2200 people implies a much smaller margin of error than most surveys -- around 2 percentage points.

Mr. Obama's approval rating continues to slide, and is dragging his party down. While last July Mr. Obama had a 57% positive rating, Quinnipiac now pegs him at just 44% approval -- a number below President Bill Clinton's approval rating just before his party lost control of Congress in 1994. When asked which party they plan to vote for this November, likely voters in the Quinnipiac survey picked Republicans by 43% to 38%. This was despite an expressed lack of confidence in the ability of Republican leaders in Congress to tackle the nation's problems.

Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, says the warning signs for Mr. Obama include the fact that voters now turn thumbs-down on him on all major aspects of his presidency. Only 39% rate him positively for his handling of the economy, only 43% on foreign policy, a mere 30% on his illegal immigration stance and only 41% like his Gulf oil spill policy. Even his pick of Elena Kagan for the Supreme Court is approved by voters by only 46% to 34%.

Mr. Brown is careful to note that events can move quickly and "a year is a lifetime in politics." But the 2010 mid-term election is just over three months away, and Mr. Brown thinks the president should now be worried about 2012 as well, "Incumbents with only a 40% re-elect number bear watching," he says.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 1:27 pm 
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Nitefox wrote:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704684604575381191790284742.html

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Almost as stinging, a plurality believe the country would have been better off if John McCain had beaten Mr. Obama in 2008.[/b]

Shhhh!!! This might make him want to run again.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:57 pm 
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People are all up in arms about the economy. At this point they're so pissed that anyone who was in office would probably have seen similar results if the economy was in the same state.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:00 pm 
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Palin 2012!


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:01 pm 
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Aizle wrote:
People are all up in arms about the economy. At this point they're so pissed that anyone who was in office would probably have seen similar results if the economy was in the same state.

That's because the promise was this:

Image

and the results are this:

Image

"It's all about JOBS, stupid"! (to paraphrase Bill Clinton)

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:16 pm 
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Taskiss -- somebody should update that unemployment chart with the next year of actual data.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:25 pm 
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Really it just levels off.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:34 pm 
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Rorinthas wrote:
Really it just levels off.

Which opens the gap between "if we spend the stimulus" and reality, because Obama's guys were saying it'd be dropping pretty sharply by now. And it's not.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:37 pm 
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I'm really curious how the projection for the employment level with a stimulus ended up intersecting with the projection for employment level with no stimulus. I mean, if you believe in Keynesian economics, then government spending will decrease unemployment in the near term. But even Keynesianists know that it will reduce employment in the long term when the debts have to be paid.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:55 pm 
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Aizle wrote:
People are all up in arms about the economy. At this point they're so pissed that anyone who was in office would probably have seen similar results if the economy was in the same state.


Actually, this is true.

There's nothing that could have been done from 2008 onwards that would not have outraged American voters. While what Obama is doing is exacerbating and delaying the ultimate consequences (which will be much worse than what is happening now), an acute and painful recession was the other choice.

Americans are generally too ignorant to realize this whole mess is the result of years of terrible fiscal and monetary policy they beget upon themselves for trying to expand government's role for their own self purposes.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:48 pm 
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I'm not too worried about it. It's a long way to 2012. I am fairly confident that the President will be re-elected with a strong majority. The Republicans don't have anyone who can compete with him.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:56 pm 
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I don't know where you are getting your data. Most reputable polls have President Obama losing handilly to any "unnamed opponent" were the election held today. Not to mention the growing reality that the President may be primaried against.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:19 pm 
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It is a long way to 2012 and no good front runner has emerged, but the "generic ballot" polls dont' bode well as things stand.

I wonder if there is a power shift this november, will Obama be willing to shift? I think he has the ability to go Clinton, make an adjustment and secure reelection. However I don't see him doing that.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:51 pm 
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Monte wrote:
I'm not too worried about it. It's a long way to 2012. I am fairly confident that the President will be re-elected with a strong majority. The Republicans don't have anyone who can compete with him.



I'll make a bet with you. If Obama isn't re-elected, you leave the board till the next presidential election. If he wins, I'll do the same.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:11 pm 
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I'll miss you Nitefox. I think he'll be re-elected, but we've still got two more years. A lot of things can happen.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:03 pm 
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Wwen wrote:
I'll miss you Nitefox. I think he'll be re-elected, but we've still got two more years. A lot of things can happen.



I think he's done. The independents aren't going to get snookered by him again.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:04 pm 
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I played snooker when I was in England.

If they voted for a Dem or Rep, they aren't really independents in my mind. I don't think being "snookered" is what happened. If there's a crisis near the election or new war, people won't vote for anyone else. The collective will vote for him again. Not that it matters, whoever replaces him will be the same as long as they're from the usual stock of politicians.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:10 pm 
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You know, if a Republican had been elected instead, what would he not have done that Obama has done? Because the bailout and stimulus were absolute givens, even a Republican would have passed them without hesitation. Hell, Bush signed most of the bailout legislation himself.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:45 pm 
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Nitefox wrote:
Monte wrote:
I'm not too worried about it. It's a long way to 2012. I am fairly confident that the President will be re-elected with a strong majority. The Republicans don't have anyone who can compete with him.



I'll make a bet with you. If Obama isn't re-elected, you leave the board till the next presidential election. If he wins, I'll do the same.


Deal. If I learned anything from the primaries, the election, and the last 18 months, it's this - never ever underestimate President Obama.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 12:00 am 
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I honestly think this is an important fact.. some have said it already:

Based on how things are going, the current CIC could literally **** 40 tons of gold bullion a day, fix the world and america pay off the national deficit, provide healthcare for free to every one in the world and he would still be a douchebag right now.

I may not like this guy or what he is doing... but no matter who it was, they were doomed to fail.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 12:44 am 
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Xequecal wrote:
You know, if a Republican had been elected instead, what would he not have done that Obama has done? Because the bailout and stimulus were absolute givens, even a Republican would have passed them without hesitation. Hell, Bush signed most of the bailout legislation himself.


I think many of us are saying that Obama is almost like still having Bush - only the D's and R's think differently.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 12:45 am 
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Despite having a Senate that is easily the most hostile since the Civil War, President Obama has managed to pass Health Care Reform, Financial Reform, hate crimes, equal pay, and a host of other legislative initiatives that no other president before him has passed. Yes, his approval ratings are low right now. So were Clinton's, and so were Reagan's.

Obama has one of the most powerful campaign networks, and I believe that within the next two years we will see our economy truly start to turn around. I also expect to see a large chunk cut out of our deficit, not only from extra revenue coming in from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, but also from HCR, the drawdown in Iraq and Afghanistan, and multiple other measures.

Obama has the chance to be for the left what Reagan was for the right (minus the slaughter of a few hundred thousand central and south Americans).

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 1:06 am 
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Right just with a slaughter of innocent Iraqi's Afghans and Pakistanis + all the people we wont know about being assassinated.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 1:12 am 
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Elmarnieh wrote:
Right just with a slaughter of innocent Iraqi's Afghans and Pakistanis + all the people we wont know about being assassinated.


I know it's popular among conservatives to start blaming Obama for starting those wars, despite the fact that he wasn't even a Senator at the time, and that he opposed them. However, he is drawing those troops down in both areas. It's going to take longer than 18 months, or even a full term, to truly unravel the damage that Conservatism did to this country, both economically and militarily. But, that's what Democrats do. They come in and clean up the messes that Republicans leave behind them. Clinton did it for Reagan and Bush Sr, and now Obama is doing it for Bush Jr. Hopefully this time, we will wise up and continue electing adults instead of backsliding.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 4:22 am 
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Xequecal wrote:
You know, if a Republican had been elected instead, what would he not have done that Obama has done? Because the bailout and stimulus were absolute givens, even a Republican would have passed them without hesitation. Hell, Bush signed most of the bailout legislation himself.

Exactly, we might not have been in quite as much debt, but otherwise we'd be headed in the same direction.

Monte wrote:
I know it's popular among conservatives to start blaming Obama for starting those wars, despite the fact that he wasn't even a Senator at the time, and that he opposed them.

I don't know how anyone could blame him for starting it, that makes no sense, but I can blame him for not ending it. He was an anti-war candidate. I don't see his social objectives as much different from what I see from everyone. I'm the least unhappy about the economic stuff, because I see that in both parties imo. The war is inexcusable. He could end it right now, Monty. Sure, it'd take some time to pack up and all that, but he could have ended gitmo and a wide variety of other bullshit very easily. He's done more of the same instead. Surging Afghan, which I never hear good news about. Even top generals admit that it will take way longer than the politicians and diplomats want. The Stars and Stripes, a military geared newspaper, never has an article that is upbeat about Afghanistan. He was the anti-war guy, Monty! He is the commander in chief of the military, many of the things you thought made Bush a war criminal are still happening under his supervision! There is no excuse. I'm not lowering my expectations because Obama is the new-guy.

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