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| [Economics] The Recession is over ... https://gladerebooted.net/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=504 |
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| Author: | Khross [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 12:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
http://www.reuters.com/article/domestic ... 3T20091013 Quote: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression has ended, but weak household spending as the labor market struggles to create jobs will slow the pace of the economy's recovery, according to a survey released on Monday. The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association for Business Economics, also known as the NABE, found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines. "The great recession is over," NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said. There's more at the link ... |
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| Author: | Imperi [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 12:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I'm glad it's so black and white... |
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| Author: | Khross [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 12:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
Lex: It's not that black and white actually. I should have probably included that I feel the above declaration by the NABE is full of ****. |
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| Author: | Müs [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 12:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Hooray! /dances |
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| Author: | LadyKate [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
Our University is facing 20% budget cuts over the next 2 years, and in several counties in our state the unemployment rate is 18%. So maybe its just Mississippi that is still in the recession... |
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| Author: | Kairtane [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
The article that Khross linked above wrote: Respondents also expected the U.S. dollar to weaken further this year and into 2010, but did not see this contributing to a narrowing of the country's trade deficit as the economic revival stimulates demand for imports. Does this really say that the dollar will continue decline while our trade deficit continues to expand? If so, who in the hell is responding that we're out of this recession? If I got it wrong, let me know and ignore this post. edit: Thanks DFK! I forgot to proof it. |
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| Author: | Elmarnieh [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:47 pm ] |
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Oh I am so glad the tools who thought it could never happen are now telling us that what they didn't believe was happening while it was happening is now not happening. |
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| Author: | Imperi [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 2:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
Khross wrote: Lex: It's not that black and white actually. I should have probably included that I feel the above declaration by the NABE is full of ****. I was being sarcastic, I guess it doesn't translate well. |
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| Author: | Kairtane [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 2:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
Thanks for clearing that up, Elmo. |
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| Author: | Rynar [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 3:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
It is absolutely baffeling to me that these otherwise brilliant people continue to reley on an obviously flawed and inaccurate set of indicators. |
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| Author: | Rafael [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 3:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Why do they worry about the technicals so much? First of all, the technicals are all bullshit: unemployment, GDP, the CPI among others rationalize out all actual bad performance. It's like Washington is doing the same thing the average idiot consumer is doing: spending his bonus before he gets it, making affordability choices based on the monthly payment and rationalizing trash as good investments. How do they expect to pay back the taxpayer on buying bad assets when 1) they didn't have funds to purchase the assets to begin with and aren't going to raise tax revenues to do so and 2) the assets are just going to go into default anyway. I guess they think a currency crisis is better than an equity crisis, but I beg to differ. |
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| Author: | Kaffis Mark V [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 6:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: |
Rafael wrote: How do they expect to pay back the taxpayer How long has it been since *anybody* has cared about this? Managed inflation is all about systematically robbing the taxpayer to begin with! |
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| Author: | Lalaas [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 8:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
LadyKate wrote: Our University is facing 20% budget cuts over the next 2 years, and in several counties in our state the unemployment rate is 18%. So maybe its just Mississippi that is still in the recession... No, Michigan's still lagging with ya. Metro Detroit is ~15-18%, and the city itself (last I read) was at about 29%. of 700-900k people. I've been doing a slight bit of hiring, and it's scary to see how many engineers are struggling for work. Some of them haven't had a job in a year. |
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| Author: | LadyKate [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
Lalaas wrote: LadyKate wrote: Our University is facing 20% budget cuts over the next 2 years, and in several counties in our state the unemployment rate is 18%. So maybe its just Mississippi that is still in the recession... No, Michigan's still lagging with ya. Metro Detroit is ~15-18%, and the city itself (last I read) was at about 29%. of 700-900k people. I've been doing a slight bit of hiring, and it's scary to see how many engineers are struggling for work. Some of them haven't had a job in a year. Wow, yeah that does sound kind of scary. Those are some high numbers. Are you seeing any improvement? |
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| Author: | Raell [ Tue Oct 13, 2009 10:43 pm ] |
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LK, there is no improvement here at all. In fact, I don't think it has hit bottom yet. |
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| Author: | LadyKate [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 6:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: |
Raell wrote: LK, there is no improvement here at all. In fact, I don't think it has hit bottom yet. Thats even scarier. If our state continues with the budget cuts in higher education, we may get quite a bit lower as well... It doesn't seem as scary in a small town though. I imagine that living in a big city could get pretty frightening. |
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| Author: | Talya [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:11 am ] |
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Not that i'm any expert in the numbers, but a recession indicates a slowing down of the economy, through several simple indicators remaining consistently bad over a sixth month time frame. Note that when the recession "ends," (by those same indicators moving in the other direction for some time frame), things may still be in pretty rough shape, economically. They just aren't getting worse. Of course, if the cycle of the underlying problem that caused the recession is bad enough, then the recessions and their "recoveries" are just symptoms of a greater problem. If the economic indicators say we're out of a recession, then we are out of a recession. That doesn't mean everything is back to it's wonderful normal state, nor does it mean that the state of the economy is healed so that another recession will not start tomorrow.... |
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| Author: | Khross [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
There are no real indicators suggesting growth or even a stabilization of the American economy. There are several indicators that a general investing bubble is about to explode and that the dollar is about to destabilize even further. The situation is pretty dire and parts of the country are in demonstrable states of depression. But, the NABE, the BLS, and the Obama Administration are simply content to redefine what constitutes growth, expansion, and stability for political ends. |
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| Author: | Elmarnieh [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 9:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
The thing the politicians fail to grasp that the recession is the CURE. Its not a bad thing - its the market forces asserting themselves in attempt to correct the idiotic situation that was attempted to force itself on the market. |
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| Author: | Imperi [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 9:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: |
Elmarnieh wrote: The thing the politicians fail to grasp that the recession is the CURE. Its not a bad thing - its the market forces asserting themselves in attempt to correct the idiotic situation that was attempted to force itself on the market. I agree. You cannot reach the peak of a mountain without walking downhill sometimes. The politicians are trying to make a ladder into the sky... an economic bubble. |
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| Author: | Rafael [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 3:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
This is where we ignore technical information and go back to the fundamentals. |
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| Author: | Khross [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 5:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
Rafael: Alright, here are the fundamentals ... The dollar is down 17% this year. The three major stock indices have P/ER's in excess of 140. And ... Baseline unemployment has been adjusted to 10%. Savings dropped to back down to 3% in the last 90 days, mainly on credit extended to people who were foreclosed on in the first place. And the federal government is so overleveraged it had to make the FDIC a Ponzi Scheme using the Voluntary Reserve Fund. TL,DR: WE'RE ****. |
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| Author: | Rafael [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 6:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Yes, when I say ignore the technicals, I'm talking about the published Unemployment numbers which we both know are ****. I have the dollar index down almost 13 points off its March peak, which is to say, it's not down that much from the beginning of the year. It did just break a 52 week low, closing at under 75.50 today. The P/E's of domestic stocks has long been a given; it seems as the capitalization is what most domestic investors try to return so that means slashed dividends. The *most* draconian thing I've heard recently was that foreign lenders and central banks just expanded reserves with a composition of around 33% USD and the rest going to Euros and the Yen. This drives down the dollar against other currencies compounded with inflationary problems, it's a very grim outlook. I don't see how anyone is not extremely Bearish on the Dollar and on US Bonds. |
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| Author: | Diamondeye [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 6:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: [Economics] The Recession is over ... |
Technicals should never be ignored, although they are easy prey for armored fighting vehicles. |
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| Author: | Midgen [ Wed Oct 14, 2009 6:50 pm ] |
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If you don't like the definition of a word/term, just redefine it to suit your purposes. This concept should be familiar to folks around here, no? =) |
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