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When will the economic collapse happen?
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Author:  Lex Luthor [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:23 pm ]
Post subject:  When will the economic collapse happen?
Over the last 3 or so years, people here have been claiming that the economy will collapse, or at least be very destabilized. Here's some examples (I could find more from others as well):

Elmarnieh Mar 22, 2010 wrote:
Not at all Taskiss. If you had LISTENED to me, instead of imagining what I thought you would likely currently still be working and building up reserves. Which is exactly what I am doing (cause I listen to myself). Last year I believe I stated several times that we would see a period of artificial recovery while we gasped our last breath. The collapse won't come until the inflation hits. We are still losing jobs, we are still losing banks, the pretty words on tv cannot change these facts.


Elmarnieh Mar 22, 2010 wrote:
Yeah the FDIC has already been bailed out and is forceasting 300+ bank failures due in 2010. Note: 157 banks failed in 2010

Our ship is sinking Taskiss but you're entrhalled by the man sweating profusely and shouting "Everything's fine" as the water reaches his ankles.


Khross Oct 14, 2009 wrote:
There are no real indicators suggesting growth or even a stabilization of the American economy. There are several indicators that a general investing bubble is about to explode and that the dollar is about to destabilize even further. The situation is pretty dire and parts of the country are in demonstrable states of depression. But, the NABE, the BLS, and the Obama Administration are simply content to redefine what constitutes growth, expansion, and stability for political ends.


So, what I'm asking is when will this collapse happen? When will the bubble explode? It didn't happen in 2010. This year? The next? 2050? I wouldn't make this thread if their positions had changed.
Author:  Midgen [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
Before we jump down this rabbit hole, lets start out with some definitions. Get them on the table early..

Let's start with a clear definition of "economic collapse".

Then, lets define what you mean by "destabilized".

I guess defining 'explode' will probably be necessary too...

This is a good start...
Author:  Lex Luthor [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
I'd rather just hear their interpretations of collapse and if they will recant their positions by their own definitions.
Author:  Rynar [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
It has already begun, and is irreversible.
Author:  Lex Luthor [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re:
Rynar wrote:
It has already begun, and is irreversible.


Explain the outcome of this collapse in very clear terms, and when you expect the outcome to occur by.
Author:  Rynar [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hyperinflation manifests itself slowly, and as we destroy our currency, which is also the worlds currency, we are beginnning to see the world pull away from it. This will drasticly disable our ability to export any of this inflation to other nations as they will no longer have to transact in dollars. Once our inflation is entirely internalized you will see drastic price jumps which range Americans out of the food and energy markets.

This is when you will know what suffering is.

As I said, it has already begun. As far as a time table goes? It' tough to say until you define your terms so I know what specifics you are looking for.
Author:  Lex Luthor [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:04 pm ]
Post subject: 
Well, let's look at Wikipedia has to say.

Quote:
An economic collapse is a devastating breakdown of a national, regional, or territorial economy. It is essentially a severe economic depression characterised by a sharp increase in bankruptcy and unemployment. A full or near-full economic collapse is often quickly followed by months, years, or even decades of economic depression, social chaos, and civil unrest. Such crises have both been seen to afflict capitalist market economies and state controlled economies.


Do you expect these things to happen, such as civil unrest? Do you expect lots of banks or other financial institutions to fail? Will the stock market crash? If so by when? It seems that your definition of economic collapse might just be "stagnation".
Author:  Rynar [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
I wish you would stop piddle-paddling around and define, clearly, in your own words exactly what specific indicators you are speaking to.

Also, your comment about stagflation lead me to believe you aren't reading.
Author:  Lenas [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
He is already being pretty specific in what he's asking, Rynar.
Author:  Rynar [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
No he's not. He is painting with broad brush strokes and generalities. I want him to list very specific benchmarks and clearly define them.
Author:  Talya [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.
Author:  Lenas [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
He's not painting any kind of picture or making any statements. He is merely asking other posters to clarify their positions on a) when, specifically if possible, America will meet its eventual 'doomsday' and b) what the fallout of our crash will be, and how it will affect us all.

If these are questions that can't be accurately answered, just tell him.
Author:  Rynar [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:00 pm ]
Post subject: 
I'll simply say this: what do you think would happen if Americans were priced out of the food and energy markets?
Author:  Talya [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
Understanding is a three-edged sword.
Author:  Lenas [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re:
Rynar wrote:
I'll simply say this: what do you think would happen if Americans were priced out of the food and energy markets?

We might have to start supporting ourselves?
Author:  Rynar [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Re:
Lenas wrote:
Rynar wrote:
I'll simply say this: what do you think would happen if Americans were priced out of the food and energy markets?

We might have to start supporting ourselves?


Ok...

But what does that really mean when you are faced with sn immediate reality I'm which the cost of food and energy doubles in one day, day after day?
Author:  Xequecal [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When will the economic collapse happen?
Food prices doubling every day would be an example of the second-worst hyperinflation ever to hit a country in human history, I highly doubt the US will ever fall that far. Remember that all current US debt can be paid in the US's own currency, we don't have war reparations or debts we have to source foreign currencies to pay off so there is no reason for the government to just start printing trillions of dollars every day. The US still produces trillions worth of useful things that can be traded for food and energy so even an economic default would turn itself around in a few years.
Author:  Lenas [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Re:
Rynar wrote:
Ok...

But


I'm not the one that's supposed to be entertaining a hypothetical here. Let me just stop you in your tracks by saying I have zero interest in the topic. I was just annoyed that Lex (broad, or stupid as his question is) was getting the runaround already.
Author:  Kaffis Mark V [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
Okay, Xeq. Let's back that down. What if food prices doubled every week? How do you think the American people would react?
Author:  Xequecal [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:10 pm ]
Post subject: 
That would be a catastrophe, but there's no reason for that kind of hyperinflation to occur.

Countries end up with hyperinflation when they have to pay large foreign debts in a foreign currency. The US can pay all its debts with its own currency, essentially giving the government the ability to simply erase all its debt whenever it wants. The dollar would be destroyed but the fact is Americans still produce trillions of dollars of goods and services and some currency would quickly spring up to represent that value so it can be traded. People are not going to start starving or be unable to buy basic food items. The trade deficit would just crash down to near zero and we'd have to start living as a whole on $500 billion less per year.
Author:  Kaffis Mark V [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
What do you think the dollar being destroyed means, Xequecal? Printing money to pay debt is what will CAUSE the hyperinflation.
Author:  Xequecal [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re:
Kaffis Mark V wrote:
What do you think the dollar being destroyed means, Xequecal? Printing money to pay debt is what will CAUSE the hyperinflation.


Hyperinflation happens when you have to pay foreign debt in a foreign currency that you can't afford, so you desperately keep printing money to try and eliminate a small portion of the debt before the market reacts and devalues your currency again. Since the US can simply eliminate all its debt whenever it wants, it's not going to get stuck in the cycle of constantly having to print more and more paper to try and chip away at a huge debt, as was the case in Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe. The worst that can possibly happen is everyone just ditches the dollar and switches to something else. Our creditors will have to eat the loss and the new currency will definitely be much lower in value, but it will still represent the trillions of "dollars" worth of useful stuff the US makes and thus won't be worthless.
Author:  Kaffis Mark V [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
We can't afford to pay back our foreign debt in our own currency, which is why we'd have to print more of it. Even if we eliminate our debt, we've now done two things: massively inflated the amount of currency in circulation by printing more, and shattered all confidence in our currency's stability.

Now, suddenly, we can't trade in it without offering more than people think a given good is worth. That goes for domestic trade as well as international trade. Hence, more inflation.
Author:  Rynar [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
/facepalm

Go back and read what I **** wrote earlier in the thread. America's special currency exemption is coming to an end.
Author:  Xequecal [ Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re:
Kaffis Mark V wrote:
We can't afford to pay back our foreign debt in our own currency, which is why we'd have to print more of it. Even if we eliminate our debt, we've now done two things: massively inflated the amount of currency in circulation by printing more, and shattered all confidence in our currency's stability.

Now, suddenly, we can't trade in it without offering more than people think a given good is worth. That goes for domestic trade as well as international trade. Hence, more inflation.


Or we just ditch the dollar and switch to a different currency. Have the UN or the World Bank write up some rules for how the new currency should be managed to ensure stability and the problem is solved. Saying people wouldn't trust the new currency after the dollar disaster is like saying people wouldn't trust the Deutsche Mark after the Weimar Republic.

Quote:
/facepalm

Go back and read what I **** wrote earlier in the thread. America's special currency exemption is coming to an end.


Yes, but when that happens, it won't be retroactive. All the debt accumulated up until that point, and all interest due, can still be erased.
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