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Why the Fed does not talk to the public.
https://gladerebooted.net/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=5745
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Author:  Uncle Fester [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:28 am ]
Post subject:  Why the Fed does not talk to the public.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/ ... D520110311

Quote:
But in Queens, New York, on Friday, William Dudley was bombarded with questions about food inflation, and his attempt to put rising commodity prices into a broader economic context only made things worse.

"When was the last time, sir, that you went grocery shopping?" one audience member asked.

Dudley tried to explain how the Fed sees things: Yes, food prices may be rising, but at the same time, other prices are declining. The Fed looks at core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, to get a better sense of where inflation may actually be heading.

So, Dudley sought an everyday example of a price that is falling.

"Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful," he said referring to Apple Inc's (AAPL.O) latest handheld tablet computer hitting stories on Friday.

"You have to look at the prices of all things," he said.

This prompted guffaws and widespread murmuring from the audience, with one audience member calling the comment "tone deaf."

"I can't eat an iPad," another quipped.


SO the Fed does not look at fuel and food...probably the two most immediate and wallet hitting costs to the family?

Author:  Lex Luthor [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:37 am ]
Post subject: 

The person who quipped "I can't eat an iPad" probably gets plenty of food every day.

Dudley is completely correct that prices are falling with anything related to information technology, which has been an ongoing trend for decades.

Author:  Aizle [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:38 am ]
Post subject: 

Uncle Fester:

Yes, and for good reason IMHO.

Author:  Kaffis Mark V [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:38 am ]
Post subject: 

This just in: Water is wet.

Author:  Ienan [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Why the Fed does not talk to the public.

But how often do you buy technology? A few purchases a year max I would say. Yet, it's being weighted in the CPI and fuel and food costs are left out, two of the most common purchases made every day or every week. Khross was right. This is all done to make the inflation rate look low. And on top of it, anything tied to the CPI, such as i-bonds are kept lower. This is insane. This would be like me setting my own credit card rate based on how quickly I think I'm paying the card off, but excluding my food and fuel costs. :roll:

Author:  Elmarnieh [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:49 am ]
Post subject: 

Core inflation is not useful when you call your measurement the CONSUMER PRICE INDEX. Consumers fyi, buy food.

Author:  Lex Luthor [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Why the Fed does not talk to the public.

Ienan wrote:
But how often do you buy technology? A few purchases a year max I would say. Yet, it's being weighted in the CPI and fuel and food costs are left out, two of the most common purchases made every day or every week. Khross was right. This is all done to make the inflation rate look low. And on top of it, anything tied to the CPI, such as i-bonds are kept lower. This is insane. This would be like me setting my own credit card rate based on how quickly I think I'm paying the card off, but excluding my food and fuel costs. :roll:


Let's see... I pay monthly broadband and tv and for my cell phone which adds up to a lot. I recently bought a computer that cost over $4k, a new smart phone, monitor, etc.

Author:  Hopwin [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:09 am ]
Post subject: 

Wow apparently talking to the Fed is like talking to Lex. Can we medicate them?

Oh and Lex is on ignore so I assume he is making some assinine statement about how life is much better because computers, cell phones, calculator-watches are cheaper or some such crap.

Author:  RangerDave [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:14 am ]
Post subject: 

According to the BLS, the average American household spends about 13% of its income on food.

http://www.creditloan.com/infographics/how-the-average-consumer-spends-their-paycheck/

Author:  Rorinthas [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:39 am ]
Post subject: 

So it's okay to ignore 1/8 of the economy when dealing with inflation or only when it supports your agenda?

Author:  RangerDave [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:49 am ]
Post subject: 

If that comment was to me, I think you're reading more into my post than is meant to be there. I was just offering up some numbers to provide a benchmark for the conversation, not advocating any particular position on the issue. Indeed, I don't really have a firm position on the issue, though if anything, I tend to lean towards thinking inflation measures should reflect actual consumption patterns and thus include food and energy even if they are more volatile. That said, I do think the conspiracy theory as to why the government doesn't do that is, like most conspiracy theories, silly.

Author:  Hannibal [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why the Fed does not talk to the public.

Lex Luthor wrote:
Ienan wrote:
But how often do you buy technology? A few purchases a year max I would say. Yet, it's being weighted in the CPI and fuel and food costs are left out, two of the most common purchases made every day or every week. Khross was right. This is all done to make the inflation rate look low. And on top of it, anything tied to the CPI, such as i-bonds are kept lower. This is insane. This would be like me setting my own credit card rate based on how quickly I think I'm paying the card off, but excluding my food and fuel costs. :roll:


Let's see... I pay monthly broadband and tv and for my cell phone which adds up to a lot. I recently bought a computer that cost over $4k, a new smart phone, monitor, etc.


And my 17" crt monitor still works, so would my Blackberry from 3 years ago. I can still surf the web and do what 95% of the country needs a laptop for on an old ibm thinkpad.

I can't live with food I bought 3 years ago for as long. Tech is far less consumable, and is a poor measure, hence why its being used to skew the numbers. The things you list Lex, as much as it may hurt your technocrat ego to hear, are low on the heirchy of needs.

Author:  Lex Luthor [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:07 pm ]
Post subject: 

if you decided to buy those same parts the price would be much cheaper.

Author:  Xequecal [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why the Fed does not talk to the public.

CPI has never included food/energy prices, it's not like Obama's administration changed this in order to lie to people. It's not dishonest to strip out food/energy prices, I read somewhere that at one point in the 90s that if food/energy prices had been included the CPI would have shown deflation right during the run up to the dot com crash.

Author:  Rorinthas [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:18 pm ]
Post subject: 

I'm not interested in wild theories, nor am I trying to pick on you, Dave. I'm just wondering why those people (if you aren't one of them no problem) think it's okay to ignore that chunk of the economy. I've had the highest winter electric bill in three years in my apartment, and I watch food prices creep up. I'm not happy that the administration is singing "happy days are here again" when there is practical evidence to the contrary.

Author:  Elmarnieh [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:21 pm ]
Post subject: 

I don't think anyone mentioned any administration until you Xeq.

Author:  Aizle [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re:

Rorinthas wrote:
I'm not interested in wild theories, nor am I trying to pick on you, Dave. I'm just wondering why those people (if you aren't one of them no problem) think it's okay to ignore that chunk of the economy. I've had the highest winter electric bill in three years in my apartment, and I watch food prices creep up. I'm not happy that the administration is singing "happy days are here again" when there is practical evidence to the contrary.


It seems to me that was explained in the OP. They remove them because they are volatile and likely artificially increase or decrease the overall trend. The Fed is generally interested in longer term planning, so it makes sense for why they remove it. If there are longer term food/gas issues, those will bleed into the rates of other goods as people are forced to change their spending habits.

Now, you can certainly disagree with their approach, but it seems pretty straightforward to me as to why they do it that way.

Author:  Khross [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Re:

Aizle wrote:
It seems to me that was explained in the OP. They remove them because they are volatile and likely artificially increase or decrease the overall trend. The Fed is generally interested in longer term planning, so it makes sense for why they remove it. If there are longer term food/gas issues, those will bleed into the rates of other goods as people are forced to change their spending habits.
"Core Inflation" is simply a political misnomer that allows your government and it's marginally attached independent agencies (the Fed) to lie to you.
Aizle wrote:
Now, you can certainly disagree with their approach, but it seems pretty straightforward to me as to why they do it that way.
Really, because I don't think you understand what happens when you remove volatile markets from real inflation calculations. The Food Industry accounts for 10% of U.S. GDP. Energy Industries in the United States combine for nearly 22% of GDP. So, sure, Inflation looks just spiffy when you cut a third of spending out of the whole.

We're talking about trillions of dollars being ignored because they're "volatile". Never mind that we normalize consumption of both productions the same way we homogenize employment and housing costs across the nation on a regular basis. "Core Inflation" just means "inflation most of you don't actually have any interest in."

By the by, RangerDave, 13% assumes one makes median income in the United States, which is $50,000 per household. That percentage increases geometrically as earning decreases below median. It's also important to note that the Bell Curve standardization for income horrendously skews actual spending habits on food, housing, and staple goods. Quite honestly ...

Food and Energy Inflation are the components that most hit 80% of the population.

Author:  Aizle [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:55 pm ]
Post subject: 

Khross,

You assume that I agree with how they perform their review. All I'm saying is that their reasoning is pretty clear.

Author:  Khross [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re:

Aizle wrote:
You assume that I agree with how they perform their review. All I'm saying is that their reasoning is pretty clear.
Really, because you aren't demonstrating an understanding of their reasoning from the posts you've made in this thread.

Author:  Aizle [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:58 pm ]
Post subject: 

Thanks Khross, I've seen the light. I understand now that it's all a government conspiracy to dupe the American people and hold us all back from our individual greatness. How could I have been so blind...

Author:  Khross [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re:

Aizle wrote:
Thanks Khross, I've seen the light. I understand now that it's all a government conspiracy to dupe the American people and hold us all back from our individual greatness. How could I have been so blind...
You can be flippant all you want, but that's closer to the truth than anything you've said so far in this thread. Governments have a vested interest in maintaining their own power base. This is a universal truth of human society for the last 10,000 years. A government will continue perpetuate itself until it implodes under the weight of its own failings or it is violently removed from power. Neither the United States, nor the Democratic Party of America, are exempt from these truths.

Seriously, why don't you explain their reasoning in economic terms. Try to ...

In fact, do it while addressing Supply and Demand and correcting for regulatory pressures on market behavior in every non-volatile sector of the economy, per Federal Reserve classifications.

And, then, when you're done, correct RangerDave's link for market and currency losses against say ... 1958 U.S. Dollars.

The simple truth is that removing so-called volatile markets from the CPI and Core Inflation Index allows the government claim near 0 inflation while the cost of living steadily rises in front of your eyes.

Author:  Xequecal [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why the Fed does not talk to the public.

I honestly still don't see the concerted effort to deceive people. The BLS does calculate food and energy price inflation and reports it.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The "all items" inflation rate for the last 12 months is only 1% higher than the "all items less food and energy" inflation rate. It's not like the government is trying to hide something ridiculous like 10% inflation by reporting it as 1%.

Author:  Khross [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why the Fed does not talk to the public.

Xequecal:

Actually, they are lying and saying that 20% is 1% ...

Author:  Xequecal [ Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why the Fed does not talk to the public.

Khross wrote:
Xequecal:

Actually, they are lying and saying that 20% is 1% ...


What are you basing this on? Just because energy prices go up 15-30% doesn't mean inflation is 15-30%. You do have count the decrease in the price of other things. The CPI report even admits that energy prices went up 15-30%.

I don't know if the BLS statistics are totally made up but the assertion that they're trying to skew the data by not reporting food and energy price inflation at all is ridiculous. They do report that.

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