The Glade 4.0 https://gladerebooted.net/ |
|
S&P Drops US Credit Rating https://gladerebooted.net/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=6887 |
Page 1 of 7 |
Author: | Arathain Kelvar [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:33 am ] |
Post subject: | S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
Quote: NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded the credit rating of the United States, stripping the world's largest economy of its prized AAA status. In July, S&P placed the United States' rating on "CreditWatch with negative implications" as the debt ceiling debate devolved into partisan bickering. To avoid a downgrade, S&P said the United States needed to not only raise the debt ceiling, but also develop a "credible" plan to tackle the nation's long-term debt. In its report Friday, S&P ruled that the U.S. fell short: "The downgrade reflects our opinion that the ... plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics." S&P also cited dysfunctional policymaking in Washington as a factor in the downgrade. "The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed." A Treasury Department spokesman pushed back on the rating change, saying that S&P's analysis was flawed. A source familiar with the matter said S&P initially miscalculated the growth trajectory of the nation's debt, and then went ahead with its downgrade anyway. The source also said S&P didn't give enough credit for the debt-ceiling compromise, which paved the way for more than $2 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years. However, one of S&P's explicit criticisms of the compromise was that it didn't address the biggest drivers of the nation's debt -- Social Security and Medicare -- and didn't allow for additional tax revenue. John Chambers, Head of Sovereign Ratings for S&P, told CNN that though S&P didn't have a specific target in mind, the total debt reduction package was not sufficient. Chambers also noted that the plan did not take steps in the near term to boost economic growth. Rating agencies -- S&P, Moody's and Fitch -- analyze risk and give debt a "grade" that reflects the borrower's ability to pay the underlying loans. The safest bets are stamped AAA. That's where U.S. debt has stood for years. Moody's first assigned the United States a AAA rating in 1917. The country's new S&P rating is AA+ -- still strong, but not the highest. The downgrade puts the U.S. debt rating on par with that of Belgium, but below countries like the United Kingdom and Australia. In the days after lawmakers managed to strike a debt-ceiling deal, the two other major rating agencies have both said the deficit reduction actions taken by Congress were a step in the right direction. On Tuesday, Moody's said the United States will keep its sterling AAA credit rating, but lowered its outlook on U.S. debt to "negative." Even after a downgrade, the United States will likely still be able to pay its bills for years to come and remains a good credit risk. A downgrade really just amounts to one agency's opinion. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke articulated that view in April when S&P placed the United States on credit watch. "S&P's action didn't really tell us anything," Bernanke said. "Everybody who reads the newspaper knows that the United States has a very serious long-term fiscal problem." Investors have limited options for making safe investments, and Treasuries are effectively as liquid as cash. And other big countries have been downgraded and were still able to borrow at low rates. At the same time, some experts warn that a downgrade could gum up the banking system and ripple out onto Main Street. Treasuries are used as collateral in many transactions between financial institutions and grease the skids of lending. Shortly after the downgrade, the Federal Reserve, FDIC and other bank regulators moved to blunt the affect of the action on the banking system. In a joint release, the agencies said they would continue to treat Treasuries and other securities issued by government-sponsored entities (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) the same as before they were downgraded. Treasuries are often used as collateral for short-term lending among banks and other financial institutions. Consumers and investors could feel the impact of a downgrade. Interest rates on bonds could rise, and rates on mortgages and other types of loans along with them. Government-backed agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may also be downgraded. It's also possible that some state and local governments could also face a downgrade. And investment decisions would become complicated for large institutional investors that are required to hold highly-rated securities. I'm sure everyone knows this already, but there should be a thread. And I think most everyone saw this coming. It seems that one big factor was the "brinksmanship" of Congress. I'm still not convinced yet that this will have a huge impact; bond demand I think will still be high, which will keep interest rates depressed. |
Author: | Nitefox [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:51 am ] |
Post subject: | |
Just to get ahead of the game, the new Dem talking point is to clarify it as a Tea Party Downgrade. |
Author: | Vindicarre [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:52 am ] |
Post subject: | |
FNMA & FMCC downgraded today, because they are so reliant on the Gov't. |
Author: | Arathain Kelvar [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:55 am ] |
Post subject: | |
I'm concerned MD will get a similar kick in the pants (due to proximity to DC, there's a lot of Federal jobs here.) |
Author: | Elmarnieh [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:57 am ] |
Post subject: | |
Gold hit over 1700 in US trading. |
Author: | Kaffis Mark V [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:09 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
Arathain Kelvar wrote: It seems that one big factor was the "brinksmanship" of Congress. See, this is bullshit. |
Author: | Uncle Fester [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:09 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
And S&P hit's the 'Mac's today! round two! |
Author: | Arathain Kelvar [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:42 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
Kaffis Mark V wrote: Arathain Kelvar wrote: It seems that one big factor was the "brinksmanship" of Congress. See, this is bullshit. What's bullshit? You don't think the report said this? I haven't read the actual report, but this is how it's being quoted. From the article above, "S&P also cited dysfunctional policymaking in Washington as a factor in the downgrade. "The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed."" |
Author: | Midgen [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:43 am ] |
Post subject: | |
Interesting 'what if' article from back in May.. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 90964.html Wall Street Journal.com wrote: By JAMES FREEMAN - MAY 14, 2011
'A financial crisis is surely going to happen as big or bigger than the one we had in 2008 if we continue to behave the way we're behaving," says Stanley Druckenmiller, the legendary investor and onetime fund manager for George Soros. Is this another warning from Wall Street that Congress must immediately raise the federal debt limit to prevent the end of civilization? No—Mr. Druckenmiller has heard enough of such "clamor and hyperbole." The grave danger he sees is that politicians might give the government authority to borrow beyond the current limit of $14.3 trillion without any conditions to control spending. One of the world's most successful money managers, the lanky, sandy-haired Mr. Druckenmiller is so concerned about the government's ability to pay for its future obligations that he's willing to accept a temporary delay in the interest payments he's owed on his U.S. Treasury bonds—if the result is a Washington deal to restrain runaway entitlement costs. "I think technical default would be horrible," he says from the 24th floor of his midtown Manhattan office, "but I don't think it's going to be the end of the world. It's not going to be catastrophic. What's going to be catastrophic is if we don't solve the real problem," meaning Washington's spending addiction. |
Author: | Kaffis Mark V [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:52 am ] |
Post subject: | |
Arathain Kelvar wrote: Kaffis Mark V wrote: Arathain Kelvar wrote: It seems that one big factor was the "brinksmanship" of Congress. See, this is bullshit. What's bullshit? You don't think the report said this? I haven't read the actual report, but this is how it's being quoted. No, I'm sure the report said that. However, it's a bullshit excuse, that I doubt really was a significant contributing factor. |
Author: | RangerDave [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:52 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
Kaffis Mark V wrote: Arathain Kelvar wrote: It seems that one big factor was the "brinksmanship" of Congress. See, this is bullshit. How so? S&P explicitly stated that it was a big part of their decision, as were the Republicans' refusal to consider revenue increases and the failure of both parties to agree on entitlement reform (though I'll note that the Dems put entitlement reform on the table and the Reps still walked away). Like it or not, this was an entirely predictable (and, indeed, widely predicted) result of the Republicans' decision to launch a scorched earth campaign over the debt ceiling. However, if you just mean that S&P's analysis is b.s., I don't really disagree. S&P is right that the Reps' political strategy has put default on the table in a way it never was before, but at the end of the day, a deal did get made, and new revenues will be coming in when the Bush tax cuts expire anyway. More generally, I've long thought the ratings agencies are full of ****, and honestly, political disfunction or no, the idea that the United States is a worse credit risk than some random insurance company or tiny European country is kind of ridiculous. *ETA response to your subsequent post that came in as I was posting mine: Kaffis Mark V wrote: No, I'm sure the report said that. However, it's a bullshit excuse, that I doubt really was a significant contributing factor. Why do you doubt that? Nothing about the US' ability to pay its debts has changed in the last year. The only change is political - i.e. Republican takeover of the House, their refusal to raise revenues, and their willingness to use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip. |
Author: | Elmarnieh [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:57 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
It was an entirely predictable result of uncontrolled spending of the Federal Government post WW2. Eating up via taxation our economic engine is not a solution to our crisis. Cutting the addiction to pumping more money into our veins every year is. |
Author: | Arathain Kelvar [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:00 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: |
Kaffis Mark V wrote: No, I'm sure the report said that. However, it's a bullshit excuse, that I doubt really was a significant contributing factor. I don't doubt it was a factor. Whether or not you agree that it should have been is another matter. For the most part, I think it could contribute to at least some degree. All other factors being equal, if the management of a corporation was this disfunctional, retarded, and unable to work together, you bet your *** I'd put my money elsewhere. |
Author: | Khross [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:08 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
S&P was going to downgrade the U.S. Bond Rating regardless of the outcome of the debt-ceiling debate. It's been 60 days since they put the U.S. on Credit Watch, and the U.S. has done nothing policy or praxis wise to improve the quality of its credit in that time. S&P also was pretty clear that very little that happened last week would change the downgrade potential as it was, anyway. The shift in statements and position regarding the bond rating is primarily political. |
Author: | Dash [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:18 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
The various arguments and spin I'm coming across is interesting to watch. Democrats are simultaneously blaming the tea party for the downgrade, accusing them of being terrorists and saying that S&P was wrong to downgrade the US rating. The first two are obvious political moves, tying your opponents to the mess is politics 101. The attacking S&P would seem to be a contradiction though. Republicans are framing Obama as abdicating leadership, first president to have a credit rating lowered, not putting forth any plans, not concentrating on jobs, not tackling entitlements and in fact making the situation far worse in his first 2.5 years. While I think the dems make a good point about bashing S&P for downgrading the US while keeping those toxic mortgage bonds AAA, they're full of it when it comes to saying they offered this or that and Republicans walked away. Nothing of any great substance was ever offered and we still dont have a budget from the administration. The debate was over how much MORE debt to incur, not how to reduce the debt. Obama has introduced a massive new entitlement and is afraid to offer specifics on existing ones, while at the same time his party gleefully bashes Ryan's plan and tries to scare the retired demographic with medicare cuts or social security checks not going out. |
Author: | RangerDave [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:22 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
Khross wrote: It's been 60 days since they put the U.S. on Credit Watch, and the U.S. has done nothing policy or praxis wise to improve the quality of its credit in that time. And what was happening 60 days ago that prompted them to put the U.S. on Credit Watch? The debt ceiling debate. |
Author: | Midgen [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:27 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
RangerDave wrote: Khross wrote: It's been 60 days since they put the U.S. on Credit Watch, and the U.S. has done nothing policy or praxis wise to improve the quality of its credit in that time. And what was happening 60 days ago that prompted them to put the U.S. on Credit Watch? The debt ceiling debate. Out of control spending... |
Author: | Khross [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:28 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
RangerDave wrote: And what was happening 60 days ago that prompted them to put the U.S. on Credit Watch? The debt ceiling debate. The debt ceiling debate wasn't even a major consideration 60 days ago. In fact, it wasn't even a major consideration last Tuesday. Any attempt to assert or state that the United States Government wasn't going to raise the debt ceiling is pure balderdash. Any worry that the U.S. government wasn't going to raise the debt ceiling was pure histrionics.S&P and Moody's both put the United States on Credit Watch because the United States is still spending money like a retarded hooker in a cocaine processing camp. |
Author: | Diamondeye [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:30 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
RangerDave wrote: Khross wrote: It's been 60 days since they put the U.S. on Credit Watch, and the U.S. has done nothing policy or praxis wise to improve the quality of its credit in that time. And what was happening 60 days ago that prompted them to put the U.S. on Credit Watch? The debt ceiling debate. Uh.. yes, exactly. |
Author: | RangerDave [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:31 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
Dash wrote: While I think the dems make a good point about bashing S&P for downgrading the US while keeping those toxic mortgage bonds AAA, they're full of it when it comes to saying they offered this or that and Republicans walked away. Nothing of any great substance was ever offered and we still dont have a budget from the administration. The debate was over how much MORE debt to incur, not how to reduce the debt. I really don't see how you can think this, Dash. Obama put a $4 trillion deficit reduction plan on the table, with a 3-1 cuts-to-revenues ratio that included entitlement reforms like raising the eligibility age for SS & Medicare, changing the cost-of-living index, cutting Medicare/Medicaid spending, etc., with the revenues coming mostly from reforming deductions rather than increasing rates. That's already a conservative-leaning plan (basically the same basic structure suggested by the Gang of Six and by Simpson-Bowles), and it was his opening offer. Imagine how much more conservative-friendly it would have become if Reps had agreed to work within that framework and negotiate the details. How is that not "of any great substance"? |
Author: | RangerDave [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:33 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
Midgen wrote: RangerDave wrote: Khross wrote: It's been 60 days since they put the U.S. on Credit Watch, and the U.S. has done nothing policy or praxis wise to improve the quality of its credit in that time. And what was happening 60 days ago that prompted them to put the U.S. on Credit Watch? The debt ceiling debate. Out of control spending... Setting aside for the the moment any objection to the "out of control" characterization - how was it different from the prior 60 days (or 60 months)? The only salient change in the last year has been the political situation. |
Author: | Hannibal [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:35 am ] |
Post subject: | |
I see why the dems never put anything in writing. Now they can say "we offered to cut (insert politically advantageous item) and the mean Republicans walked away". Utter crap. |
Author: | Uncle Fester [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:40 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
Dem response: "Oh only if we continued to raise the debt limit without debate, none of this would have happened! The future would be perfect! Those terrorist Tea party members ruined everything, this is their fault!" |
Author: | Uncle Fester [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:42 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
And the ****'tard in chief's response is.....wait for it....wait for it....spend more!!!! http://nation.foxnews.com/president-oba ... e-spending |
Author: | Uncle Fester [ Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:48 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: S&P Drops US Credit Rating |
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/ ... ors?page=1 Quote: The Democrats have suggested that Republicans’ refusal to accede to tax hikes is the main reason Standard & Poor’s felt it necessary to issue a downgrade, the first in American history, last Friday evening. In their assessment of Standard & Poor’s reasoning, the Democrats are acutely at odds with Standard & Poor’s. The credit-rating agency did not call for tax hikes in its assessment: “Standard & Poor’s takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.’s finances on a sustainable footing.” No position on tax hikes. But S&P, along with the other credit-rating agencies, has long taken a position on one aspect of our fiscal troubles: entitlement reform. From S&P again: “The plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.” Sounds like that S&P was worried about spending, current and future... |
Page 1 of 7 | All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ] |
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/ |