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PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:16 am 
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http://ca.news.yahoo.com/payrolls-await ... 36073.html

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth accelerated more than expected in July as private employers stepped up hiring, a development that eased fears the economy was sliding into a fresh recession.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 117,000, the Labor Department said on Friday, above market expectations for an 85,000 gain. The unemployment rate dipped to 9.1 percent from 9.2 percent in June, mostly the result of people leaving the labor force.
The payrolls count for May and June was revised to show 56,000 more jobs added than previously reported. The report was the first encouraging piece of economic data in some time.
"While I do not think this sounds the all-clear signal, it does quell some of the conversation that the U.S. is falling back into a recession," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.
"There are still plenty of headwinds, like Europe. This report pulls us back from the ledge a little bit."
Fears that the U.S. economy might be sliding back into recession, coupled with Europe's inability to tame its spreading debt crisis, have roiled global financial markets. Economists see the odds of a U.S. recession as high as 40 percent.
U.S. stock index futures rallied more than 1 percent on the report, while prices for Treasury debt slid. The dollar trimmed losses against the yen.
Top policymakers at the Federal Reserve will sift through the report when they meet on Tuesday but are not expected to announce any new measures to support the sputtering recovery.
The U.S. central bank has cut interest rates to zero and spent $2.3 trillion on bonds. Policymakers have said they want to see how the economy fares before taking any further action.
GROWTH HAS STALLED
U.S. growth stalled in the first half of 2011, fanning fears of a new downturn. Gross domestic product grew at a 1.3 percent annual pace in the second quarter after a scant 0.4 percent rise in the first three months of the year.
A stand-off between Democrats and Republicans over raising the country's debt ceiling poisoned the atmosphere for employers and consumers. The economy's poor health has eroded President Barack Obama's popularity among Americans and could hurt his chances of reelection.
The borrowing limit was raised this week in a deal that relied on spending cuts. Economists estimate the budget cuts and expiring stimulus -- including a payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits -- could subtract more than a percentage point from GDP growth next year.
PRIVATE HIRING STEPS UP
All the gains in non-farm employment in July came from the private sector, where payrolls rose 154,000 -- an acceleration from June's 80,000 increase and more than the 115,000 expected by economists.
Government payrolls dropped 37,000 in July, a ninth straight month of job losses. The drop was mostly due to a government shutdown in Minnesota that left thousands of state workers without pay checks during the survey period for July payrolls.
With looming budget cuts at the federal government level and state and local governments still tightening their belts, the burden of job creation falls on the private sector.
Within the private sector, most of the job gains were concentrated in the services sector. Temporary help -- a harbinger of permanent hiring -- rebounded modestly after declining for three straight months.
Manufacturing payrolls rose 24,000 after increasing 11,000 in June. Most the gains came from the auto sector. Construction employment increased 8,000 after dropping 5,000 in June.
The average work week was steady at 34.3 hours, but average hourly earnings rose 10 cents.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Additional reporting by Julie Haviv in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)


Cool, maybe the country isn't really falling apart.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:25 am 
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Uhhh..."The unemployment rate dipped to 9.1 percent from 9.2 percent in June, mostly the result of people leaving the labor force."

This means that so many people have been out of work for so long that they are considered "unemployable".

That isn't good news - you need to look at jobless rate not unemployment.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:34 am 
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Less jobs available now then at beginning of Obama's term.
High unemployment.

Things getting better.

Yeah not quite.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:26 am 
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Not good, but a step in the right direction.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:55 am 
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Did you see the revised numbers?

Still think it's beginning to rebound?

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:13 am 
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I'm waiting for the preliminary August numbers of zero jobs created to be revised downwards.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:26 am 
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Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Not good, but a step in the right direction.
You said this last month (July), but last July's numbers were revised ... to negative job growth last week. So is it still going to be a step in the right direction when the 51,000 layoffs they didn't count this week are put back into the equation?

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:27 am 
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Khross wrote:
Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Not good, but a step in the right direction.
You said this last month (July), but last July's numbers were revised ... to negative job growth last week. So is it still going to be a step in the right direction when the 51,000 layoffs they didn't count this week are put back into the equation?


Are you asking me if negative job growth is a step in the right direction?


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:48 am 
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No, he's asking if you'd like to reassess your previous analysis in light of additional data, and if maybe you'd like to consider being more careful in the future.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:52 pm 
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Contradicted with.

http://nation.foxnews.com/unemployment/ ... e-stuck-91

Quote:
U.S. employment growth ground to a halt in August as sagging consumer confidence discouraged already skittish U.S. businesses from hiring, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to provide more monetary stimulus to aid the economy.

Nonfarm payrolls were unchanged, the Labor Department said on Friday, the weakest reading since September. Nonfarm employment for June and July was revised to show 58,000 fewer jobs.

Despite the lack of employment growth, the jobless rate held steady at 9.1%. The unemployment rate is derived from a separate survey of households, which showed an increase in employment and a tick up in the labor force participation rate.

While the report underscored the frail state of the economy, the hiring slowdown probably will not be seen as a recession signal as layoffs are not rising that much.

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011 ... z1WopPhdtL

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:31 pm 
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Where do you guys even find this "revised data" that shows job growth every month has been negative? I can't find it on the BLS site and I've had no luck every time I've looked other than sites that are essentially blogs that scream "bias" on every page. The BLS says the June and July growth was revised downward, but according to them it was still positive.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 12:11 pm 
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shuyung wrote:
No, he's asking if you'd like to reassess your previous analysis in light of additional data, and if maybe you'd like to consider being more careful in the future.


Well, IF it was actually negative job growth, then I would say it is not a step in the right direction (/obvious). I'm not with Khross on the whole more jobs would be a bad thing....

As far as my previous analysis - what analysis? Responding to the article that more jobs is a step in the right direction? You're getting a bit loose on "analysis" I think.

As far as being more careful - careful about what? Responding to information posted? Really? Should I withhold all comments, no matter how generic, until a specified amount of time has passed, to be sure the data contained in the post I'm responding to hasn't changed? How about I just base my response on the information provided and not worry about it? Then, if new information comes out in the thread, I'll perhaps make a new post based on the new information.

Now, regarding my reassessment, I'll say that negative job growth is a step in the wrong direction, and positive job growth is a step in the right direction. Which is this? I should be more careful and not decide yet. I haven't seen any citations identifying this negative job growth, nor how it was calculated. Once this is provided, I'll need to give it an appropriate grace period to make sure it isn't changed. ;)


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:23 pm 
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http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... ng-history

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Over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1AD were produced from 2001 to 2010, according to an updated version of Angus Maddison's figures.


Hm... if some people in the Glade are correct... this trend will suddenly screech to a halt?

The collapsists here are funny.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2011 4:23 pm 
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Information without context is meaningless. You know lex, like "saved or created"

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2011 6:14 pm 
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Not to mention GDP is harder to compare the farther back in time you go. How do you compare the value of a horse and buggy and all the products made for that technology with an iPad?

Also, who was tracking production in 1AD?

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2011 9:06 pm 
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Wwen wrote:
Not to mention GDP is harder to compare the farther back in time you go. How do you compare the value of a horse and buggy and all the products made for that technology with an iPad?

Also, who was tracking production in 1AD?


Think about when skyscrapers and advanced technology started to appear. It corresponds with the graph. Global energy usage does also. A lot more stuff is getting done now than ever before.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2011 9:30 pm 
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There are more people now and improved ways of producing thngs. Thats a very broad. I'm not arguing for or against it as a sign of collapse or whatever, I just don't think it's a good argument against. Not enough data to make a real judgement.

And other things I said are still valid. How the hell do you put in US dollars something that was produced in the 1st century? The ratio is probably close enough to the truth, but the data they used to get there is likely 75% bullshit, because there can't be enough data to accurately measure such a thing.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 12, 2011 12:57 am 
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Most tasks in the 1st century took a great amount of manual human effort, since they did not have automobiles, cheap commoditized tools, and so on. So back then it might take forty people to gather crops from a large field over a few weeks, instead of one guy driving a large combine on a sunny afternoon in 2011. Thus this one guy is able to produce a large amount of economic activity in comparison.

One software developer who writes code for Apple will have that work replicated into the homes of millions of people. There was no parallel to that in Roman times.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 12, 2011 10:00 am 
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I guess Lex is still thinking of a Mad Max type collapse or some descent into utter anarchy. However we are seeing collapses in certain areas. Remember all those jobs that spring up due to increased economic activity? Yeah theyre the first ones to go when economic activity contracts- like how it's been doing. In almost every area we are seeing losses outpace growth- jobs most troubling of all. With the US being a consumer based economy, less consumers or less people being able to consume compounds the problem.

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