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DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard?
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Author:  Müs [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:17 pm ]
Post subject:  DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard?

DE, question for you. (And anyone else that wants to chime in really)

Is NK, and KJU a credible threat to the US? I have my own reasoning on this, and am interested in what y'all think.

Author:  Talya [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Müs wrote:
DE, question for you. (And anyone else that wants to chime in really)

Is NK, and KJU a credible threat to the US? I have my own reasoning on this, and am interested in what y'all think.


NK isn't even much of a threat to SK at this point. Without China's backing, we'd really be better off if he'd do something to give SK an excuse to invade.

Author:  DFK! [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Interesting opinion piece on exactly this topic I read yesterday:

http://sofrep.com/18785/the-north-korean-threat/

Quote:
The North Korean Threat

by Nicholas Irving · April 1, 2013 · Posted In: Op-Ed



Over the years, the United States has had its fair share of threats from North Korea. As of Friday, March 29, 2013, North Korea has issued yet another “grim” warning to the United States as their leader Kim Jong-un signed an order to put its nation’s rockets on a combat-ready status. A photo was then released to media outlets called, “US mainland strike plan.” In the photo, charts and pictures show rocket trajectories impacting Hawaii, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, and Austin Texas.

In the meantime, the United States also conducted their own regular military training exercises amid the threats. Two B-2 bombers, capable of carrying both a conventional and nuclear payload, conducted aerial operations in South Korea, dropping dummy munitions. Whether we are calling it a military exercise or not, I believe that it is a true way of flexing our military muscle.

Bluff or Not?

With so many threats thrown at us in the past years, and North Korea yet to fulfill their absurd rhetoric, I would like to go ahead and call their bluff. Although North Korea does in fact have long range missile capabilities, as far as being able to hit a target in the Continental United States, not so much. North Korea’s most potent long range missile, that we are aware of at this point, is known as the Taepodong-2. The Taepodong-2 is a long range, 2-3 stage missile, giving it a maximum effective range of 2,500 statute miles (2 stage), or 2,800 statute miles (3 stage). This missile would be capable of hitting Alaska at best.

But there is one big problem. On July 5, 2006, when the North Koreans tested this missile, it failed mid flight, approximately 40 seconds after launch. With this being said, it would be almost impossible for North Korea to land a missile in our backyard, unless they had some help from their neighboring big brothers, which is highly unlikely. Getting around our current surveillance would be quite the challenge.

The Deceleration of War?

On Saturday, March 30, 2013, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un issued a statement saying, “From this time on, the North-South relations will be entering the state of war and all issues raised between the North and the South will be handled accordingly.” As we all know, the United States has military bases located in South Korea, and most, if not all, have been in the region for quite some time.

Looking back to November 23, 2010, North Korea did in fact shell the South Korean island Yeonpyeongdo, so they are very capable of doing so again. Whether they will or not, no one can say with 100% certainty.

What If?

If North Korea was capable of successfully launching a missile with a trajectory headed for the United States, there are a few defense systems they would have to outsmart. On March 14, 2013, the United States beefed up its ICBM defense by deploying an additional 14 ground based interceptors to Alaska and California missile silos. Not only did we beef up our missile defense system here in the states, we also stacked up a few more in South Korea, the PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capabilities – 3). These missile defense systems are a surface to air missile battery capable of hitting missiles in flight from the ground with a hit rate that exceeds 70%, depending on who you ask.

Dealing With North Korea

This has been an ongoing topic not only throughout the military, but is also widely talked about amongst civilians. When dealing with North Korea, there are a ton of options I’m sure we have on the table, but due to their constant asinine threats, is it something we should take seriously?


Read more: http://sofrep.com/18785/the-north-korea ... z2Q5u3fqen

Author:  Arathain Kelvar [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Talya wrote:
Müs wrote:
DE, question for you. (And anyone else that wants to chime in really)

Is NK, and KJU a credible threat to the US? I have my own reasoning on this, and am interested in what y'all think.


NK isn't even much of a threat to SK at this point. Without China's backing, we'd really be better off if he'd do something to give SK an excuse to invade.


That's ridiculous. Seoul is within range of artillery hidden in the mountains. Last report I heard said NK could hit Seoul with 500,000 artillery rounds within the first hour of a conflict. That would mostly level Seoul before anyone can really effectively respond.

NK would be crushed, but the loss to the South would be staggering.

Author:  Aizle [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:44 pm ]
Post subject: 

I believe there is some credible threat to Seoul because of it's proximity to the border. But beyond NK's ability to really screw up that city, they aren't that huge of a threat.

The big issue will be if KJU is unhinged enough to do a scorched earth policy with their nuke if they end up losing a war I would think. I'm not sure how good our intel is on how many they have, where it is and if it works.

Er: Arathain beat me to the punch on Seoul.

Author:  Khross [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Someone at the Pentagon seems to think the threats possess some degree of credibility, based on changes on deployment patterns and phase-ops in the USAF.

Author:  Diamondeye [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

The credibility of the threat they present depends a lot on which of their threats you're talking about.

They can do extremely serious damage to Seoul with chemical and conventional artillery munitions, although 500,000 rounds per hour seems exceedingly high since only their longest-ranged artillery and rockets can reach Seoul. It's close to the border but it's not so close that mortars or medium-range artillery can hit the city. I would like to know how that figure was obtained.

They present a real risk to Japan; they have numerous ballistic missile systems that could reach Japanese cities within a few minutes. These could carry chemical warheads.

As for nuking Alaska, Hawaii, or San Francisco.. well, they haven't had a great deal of success with the tests of their longest ranged missiles, but they haven't tested a great deal. Smart money is not to just laugh at them and assume they'd fail. Reaching Alaska and Hawaii, and possibly even California with a missile is a pretty significant probability.

Defending against the missile attack is probably not going to be that hard, however; even if they can fire multiple missiles there's probably not enough to totally saturate the GMD system. Even then, it could be supplemented with Aegis ships armed with SM-3 near the target areas; although I don't know that SM-3 is all that reliabile yet against intercontinental systems, each ship can carry enough to just spam them at anything that survives GMD.

One could, however, slip through since despite the sophistication of these systems, no one has ever actually defended against intercontinental ballistic missile attack before. The closest is the use of Patriot in Desert Storm, and the system of the time wasn't really made for that.

At this point its pretty unlikely that North Korea has a nuclear device small enough to fit on a missile, and may not yet have the means to make a reliable re-entry vehicle either.

However, if one does slip through that could still mean nerve gas, or even just high explosive supplemented with high-mach-number kinetic energy. A few hundred dead are a real possibility in either case. Or we could be totally wrong about his ability to put a nuclear warhead on them, and then we could be looking at 40 kilotons over Honolulu or Juneau or Fairbanks, or San Francisco.

The credibility comes not from the likelihood that this will happen, but from the consequences if it does. So, it's credible, but not strongly so. It's more in the manner of we shouldn't simply scoff at it.

The other aspect comes from whether he's serious or not. There is no way at all Kim can win against either the U.S. or South Korea. He cannot stop a retaliatory strike if he DOES use a nuke. A first strike does him no good at all; it just gets him wiped off the face of the earth.

So why he's threatening one is a mystery. I think it's a combination of 2 things - A) spring is here and he needs to distract the population from low food supplies after the winter depleted them and B) he also may be thinking that if he can establish a credible nuclear capability, he can start cutting conventional forces and maybe improve his economy a bit. I don't think he really wants to fight; even if he's only fighting the South he's going to lose. I do think, however, that he could perceive himself as being under much more imminent threat of attack than he actually is, and thereby "use it rather than lose it" when no one else thinks things are at that level. That could be bad, because it could give him the element of surprise.

Author:  Arathain Kelvar [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Diamondeye wrote:
They can do extremely serious damage to Seoul with chemical and conventional artillery munitions, although 500,000 rounds per hour seems exceedingly high since only their longest-ranged artillery and rockets can reach Seoul.


I don't know how the figure was obtained, but it's worth noting that the figure was 500,000 in the first hour, not per hour.

Author:  Hopwin [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
They can do extremely serious damage to Seoul with chemical and conventional artillery munitions, although 500,000 rounds per hour seems exceedingly high since only their longest-ranged artillery and rockets can reach Seoul.


I don't know how the figure was obtained, but it's worth noting that the figure was 500,000 in the first hour, not per hour.


It came from Foreign Policy Magazine.

Quote:
North Korea experts Victor Cha and David Kang posted on the website of Foreign Policy magazine late last month that the North can fire 500,000 rounds of artillery on Seoul in the first hour of a conflict.


http://www.businessinsider.com/why-no-o ... war-2013-4

They support DE's assertion too:

Quote:
North Korea's most threatening weapons are its 170 mm Koksan artillery guns, which are 14 meters long and can shoot conventional mortar ammunition 40 kilometers (25 miles). That's not quite enough to reach Seoul, which is 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the DMZ. But if they use rocket-assisted projectiles, the range increases to about 60 kilometers (37 miles). Chemical weapons fired from these guns could cause even greater mayhem.

Even so, not everyone believes North Korea could make good on its "sea of fire" threats. Security expert Roger Cavazos, a former U.S. Army officer, wrote in a report for the Nautilus Institute last year that, among other things, North Korea's big guns have a high rate of firing duds, pose more of a threat to Seoul's less populated outer suburbs, and would be vulnerable to counterattack as soon as they start firing and reveal their location.

Author:  Diamondeye [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

I found the 500,000 rounds in the first hour quote, but it seems to refer to the "greater Seoul area", not the city itself. That's still significant though because including its metropolitan area there are about 25 million people in and around the city. It's about 35 miles from Seoul to the DMZ, and the DMZ itself is a little over 2 miles wide.

That means the city proper can only be attacked by long-range systems like 240mm rockets (M-1991 240mm rocket in particular, and possibly the M-1985 240mm) and the 170mm howitzer while using rocket-assisted projectiles.

However, it's unlikely these weapons would simply target Seoul itself or the surrounding areas indiscriminately. Some might do that, but these weapons could be profitably used against airfields and other SK military targets that are around Seoul and in between it and the DMZ. This is especially true of the shorter and medium ranged systems. While many of these targets might technically fall inside the "greater Seoul area", targeting priorities aren't really conveyed by the 500K/1st hour figure.

I doubt very much that more than 10% of the rounds fired would be targeted on downtown Seoul, and those that are would be aimed mostly at government facilities.. to the best of the ability of the accuracy of these systems. However, those rounds would also be the most likely to have chemical warheads, and would be of the largest caliber available in order to reach that far so.. it's still be nothing nice. The other 450,000 rounds would fall in the "greater Seoul area" but a great deal would be targeted on military forces and their support facilities. These artillery pieces are a key part of NK war strategy, so eliminating the infantry forces that can get close and destroy them quickly would be a priority.

I imagine that a large amount of that 500,000 rounds comes from mortars and small caliber howitzers that have a very high rate of fire. These weapons could only hit targets in the direct vicinity of the DMZ, but that could easily be called part of the "greater Seoul area"; 35 miles from downtown of NYC is definitely part of its metropolitan area. These are direct support weapons that can easily respond to movements by SK or US forces engaging NK positions.

It also explains why it's 500,000 the first hour. Artillery can almost always fire faster than stores can be replenished. For example, the Paladin fires 4 rounds/minute for the first 2 minutes and 1 round/minute per minute afterwards. (Wiki says 6 and 3, but it was 4 and 1 when I was in a Paladin unit, so unless there's been a doctrinal change, Wiki is wrong) Because the rounds weigh between 95 and 140 pounds depending on type and are entirely handled manually, that means you have to start refilling the howitzer when it has 2/3 of its ammunition remaining. The M992A2 ammunition carrier must also be refilled with 2/3 remaining as well. That means you need to have flat racks of ammo rolling to the battery pretty much when the gun chief yells "FIRE!" for the first round.

The flat rack holds about 170 rounds so it can easily refill the gun and carrier with 50 rounds left over, but then the truck is not moving back to get more unless it can just dump the rounds, lift the flat rack, and start rolling, so depending on how frequent the fire missions are and how far away the ammunition holding area is, the battery may not have any ammunition left before the second turn of the ammo carrier. Of course, if the battery is moving it will fire less often, and its likely specialty rounds like illumination and smoke might remain, but that just means killing munitions deplete faster since some space was taken up with utility ammo. NK isn't likely to use much in the way of smoke screens or illumination, but still they need to get new ammo to the guns somehow, and those trucks in the open are easy prey to A-10s or F-16s.

Author:  RangerDave [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Diamondeye wrote:
Or we could be totally wrong about his ability to put a nuclear warhead on them, and then we could be looking at 40 kilotons over Honolulu or Juneau or Fairbanks, or San Francisco.

I have to say, I'm increasingly of the opinion that we should take NK out before they have that capability for sure.

Author:  TheRiov [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:36 am ]
Post subject: 

Their saber rattling would seem to be making it easier for the US to justify such an action. Even China is fed up with their BS.

Author:  DFK! [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

RangerDave wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
Or we could be totally wrong about his ability to put a nuclear warhead on them, and then we could be looking at 40 kilotons over Honolulu or Juneau or Fairbanks, or San Francisco.

I have to say, I'm increasingly of the opinion that we should take NK out before they have that capability for sure.


In which case, you risk the arms proliferation that happens in the wake of regime-toppling. And, unlike we were told in Iraq, for North Korea that means potential proliferation of chemical and nuclear materials.

No, peaceful integration of North Korea over time (a la China) is the solution. The problem is that that seems unlikely.

Author:  Talya [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

RangerDave wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
Or we could be totally wrong about his ability to put a nuclear warhead on them, and then we could be looking at 40 kilotons over Honolulu or Juneau or Fairbanks, or San Francisco.

I have to say, I'm increasingly of the opinion that we should take NK out before they have that capability for sure.



I agree. Especially because the west could provide nominal support and let SK do most of the work.

Author:  Elmarnieh [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:22 pm ]
Post subject: 

Just try to arrange a deal where China gets half of NK and SK gets the other half.

Yeah China wants a barrier but the upper third of the peninsula could be enough of a physical barrier.

Just send in a Chinese Army battalion to parade in front of dear leader to be used as propaganda and have the envoy shoot him in the head as it goes by and turn the weapons on associated leaders. Boom regime change. Secure Pyongyang and draw up split agreement with SK later.

Author:  Diamondeye [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Talya wrote:
RangerDave wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
Or we could be totally wrong about his ability to put a nuclear warhead on them, and then we could be looking at 40 kilotons over Honolulu or Juneau or Fairbanks, or San Francisco.

I have to say, I'm increasingly of the opinion that we should take NK out before they have that capability for sure.



I agree. Especially because the west could provide nominal support and let SK do most of the work.


'That's essentially what's going to happen if the balloon goes up anyhow now, because we only have one brigade, some aircraft, and reinforcing elements in the area, plus naval assets. The ROK army has 520,000 active personnel, all better fed, trained, and equipped than the North Koreans. By the time we could start putting units across the Pacific, the fight would be pretty well decided.

If China were to come in, they'd definitely feel the pain before overrunning SK, and that's something we'd (somehow) have to deal with, but I don't think they'd do that. China has always had a different attitude towards the idea of South Koreans on its border as opposed to US forces.

DFK! makes a good point about proliferation. There's the temptation to believe that the West won't ever attack a country that has nuclear weapons just because of the off chance of losing a city, a carrier battle group, or even a lot of troops to a nuke. If we pre-empt NK acquisition of nukes, there's real risk of reinforcing that perception; that we only want non-proliferation as a means to keep smaller nations nice and invadable.

On the other hand, nonproliferation and the idea of getting rid of nukes is a pipe dream anyhow. If you get rid of them, the country that can build 5 nukes is now king of the world, and everyone will always know the biggest nations can build one whenever they want.

By shrinking nuclear arsenals, we've brought nuclear war down into the realm of winnable. Note the lack of quotes; there can be a winner and a loser; large nations can expect to survive a nuclear war at present with sufficient cohesion to attempt national rebuilding. That situation will only increase as arsenals shrink farther. We've traded away the near-certainty that nuclear war would not happen for a vast decrease in the destruction if it does happen, from "back to the 1600s" down to merely appalling.

Author:  Khross [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 4:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Just so you know, DE, our presence in SK is rather elevated at the moment. And a few airplanes is a bit of an understatement at the moment ...

Author:  Diamondeye [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

At the moment yes, that's correct. There are annual surges for exercises like Foal Eagle, and due to the current tensions, we have more assets in the area than normal. However, a major deployment of heavy land forces would take quite some time. For example, to move the 1st Cavalry Division from Fort Hood to Korea would mean railoading the entire division set of equipment to Beaumont or Galveston, loading it on ships, and then sailing it to Korea. That.. you're looking at 3 weeks easy, maybe more between time to raiload, load the ships, and then sail and unload. Moving the men is easy; they fly. There's most likely a few brigade sets of prepositioned equipment there as well, and light forces (most notably the 82nd Airborne) could be there in 72 hours. The Marines could possibly fast sealift a few Regimental Combat Teams to SK in pretty short order too. However, all that would still be damn small compared to the South Korean Army. We don't have a major annual deployment exercise to Korea like we used to with REFORGER, and unfortunately over the last 10 years we've kind of lost focus on this sort of thing.

Author:  Diamondeye [ Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

It seems there's a new report out in the last few hours that NK is believed to now have the ability to produce a nuclear warhead small enough for a missile.

Author:  Aegnor [ Fri Apr 12, 2013 5:47 pm ]
Post subject: 

**** just got real.

Author:  Müs [ Fri Apr 12, 2013 6:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re:

Aegnor wrote:
**** just got real.


Image

Author:  Müs [ Wed Apr 17, 2013 12:25 am ]
Post subject: 

I will say, that sometimes the comments on articles provide much needed amusement.

http://www.naturalnews.com/039881_North ... siles.html
Some Hippy Wackjob wrote:
If only people really understood how nukes really work and their relation to the harmonic positioning of the Sun (otherwise you get a dirty bomb) in order for them to explode correctly.

This illusion of nuke wars is a joke and is basically near impossible because they already can calculate the needed positioning for a detonation in advance. This why they placed them in subs and left them roaming the ocean ordered to reach certain locations at an exact moment in time. These subs are needed to at these calculated locations at exact times in-order for the bomb to reach the correct detonation location for it to be in harmonic relation with the Sun.

This is why when they dropped the bombs on Japan the bombers were circling above the cities for sometime before dropping the bombs in-order to get the timing right and target location exact. Because if it's a conventional bomb like they say, they didn't need to do that, they could've dropped it anywhere and they didn't need to spend months in the desert practicing dropping bombs into a 300 yard circle.

Anyone who wants to understand these principles can read up on Bruce Cathie, as he's been predicting bombs tests for the last 50 years.


Yeah, people really understand how nukes work.... and that's not how.

Author:  Arathain Kelvar [ Wed Apr 17, 2013 11:26 am ]
Post subject: 

/facepalm

Author:  TheRiov [ Wed Apr 17, 2013 11:31 am ]
Post subject: 

I can't read comment sections on news articles. I start weeping for the future of the human race.

Author:  Khross [ Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: DE: NK, KJU... Credible threat or Saber Rattling Tryhard

Those comments are posted by people sympathetic to your general political bent, TheRiov.

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