The Glade 4.0

Over the last 3 or so years, people here have been claiming that the economy will collapse, or at least be very destabilized. Here's some examples (I could find more from others as well):







So, what I'm asking is when will this collapse happen? When will the bubble explode? It didn't happen in 2010. This year? The next? 2050? I wouldn't make this thread if their positions had changed.

Before we jump down this rabbit hole, lets start out with some definitions. Get them on the table early..

Let's start with a clear definition of "economic collapse".

Then, lets define what you mean by "destabilized".

I guess defining 'explode' will probably be necessary too...

This is a good start...

I'd rather just hear their interpretations of collapse and if they will recant their positions by their own definitions.

It has already begun, and is irreversible.

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

Explain the outcome of this collapse in very clear terms, and when you expect the outcome to occur by.

Hyperinflation manifests itself slowly, and as we destroy our currency, which is also the worlds currency, we are beginnning to see the world pull away from it. This will drasticly disable our ability to export any of this inflation to other nations as they will no longer have to transact in dollars. Once our inflation is entirely internalized you will see drastic price jumps which range Americans out of the food and energy markets.

This is when you will know what suffering is.

As I said, it has already begun. As far as a time table goes? It' tough to say until you define your terms so I know what specifics you are looking for.

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

Well, let's look at Wikipedia has to say.



Do you expect these things to happen, such as civil unrest? Do you expect lots of banks or other financial institutions to fail? Will the stock market crash? If so by when? It seems that your definition of economic collapse might just be "stagnation".

I wish you would stop piddle-paddling around and define, clearly, in your own words exactly what specific indicators you are speaking to.

Also, your comment about stagflation lead me to believe you aren't reading.

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

He is already being pretty specific in what he's asking, Rynar.

No he's not. He is painting with broad brush strokes and generalities. I want him to list very specific benchmarks and clearly define them.

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.

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Well Ali Baba had them forty thieves, Scheherezade had a thousand tales
But master you in luck 'cause up your sleeves you got a brand of magic never fails...
...Mister Aladdin, sir, What will your pleasure be?
Let me take your order, Jot it down -You ain't never had a friend like me
█ ♣ █

He's not painting any kind of picture or making any statements. He is merely asking other posters to clarify their positions on a) when, specifically if possible, America will meet its eventual 'doomsday' and b) what the fallout of our crash will be, and how it will affect us all.

If these are questions that can't be accurately answered, just tell him.

I'll simply say this: what do you think would happen if Americans were priced out of the food and energy markets?

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

Understanding is a three-edged sword.

_________________
Well Ali Baba had them forty thieves, Scheherezade had a thousand tales
But master you in luck 'cause up your sleeves you got a brand of magic never fails...
...Mister Aladdin, sir, What will your pleasure be?
Let me take your order, Jot it down -You ain't never had a friend like me
█ ♣ █

We might have to start supporting ourselves?

Ok...

But what does that really mean when you are faced with sn immediate reality I'm which the cost of food and energy doubles in one day, day after day?

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

Food prices doubling every day would be an example of the second-worst hyperinflation ever to hit a country in human history, I highly doubt the US will ever fall that far. Remember that all current US debt can be paid in the US's own currency, we don't have war reparations or debts we have to source foreign currencies to pay off so there is no reason for the government to just start printing trillions of dollars every day. The US still produces trillions worth of useful things that can be traded for food and energy so even an economic default would turn itself around in a few years.

I'm not the one that's supposed to be entertaining a hypothetical here. Let me just stop you in your tracks by saying I have zero interest in the topic. I was just annoyed that Lex (broad, or stupid as his question is) was getting the runaround already.

Okay, Xeq. Let's back that down. What if food prices doubled every week? How do you think the American people would react?

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"Aaaah! Emotions are weird!" - Amdee
"... Mirrorshades prevent the forces of normalcy from realizing that one is crazed and possibly dangerous. They are the symbol of the sun-staring visionary, the biker, the rocker, the policeman, and similar outlaws." - Bruce Sterling, preface to Mirrorshades

That would be a catastrophe, but there's no reason for that kind of hyperinflation to occur.

Countries end up with hyperinflation when they have to pay large foreign debts in a foreign currency. The US can pay all its debts with its own currency, essentially giving the government the ability to simply erase all its debt whenever it wants. The dollar would be destroyed but the fact is Americans still produce trillions of dollars of goods and services and some currency would quickly spring up to represent that value so it can be traded. People are not going to start starving or be unable to buy basic food items. The trade deficit would just crash down to near zero and we'd have to start living as a whole on $500 billion less per year.

What do you think the dollar being destroyed means, Xequecal? Printing money to pay debt is what will CAUSE the hyperinflation.

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"Aaaah! Emotions are weird!" - Amdee
"... Mirrorshades prevent the forces of normalcy from realizing that one is crazed and possibly dangerous. They are the symbol of the sun-staring visionary, the biker, the rocker, the policeman, and similar outlaws." - Bruce Sterling, preface to Mirrorshades

Hyperinflation happens when you have to pay foreign debt in a foreign currency that you can't afford, so you desperately keep printing money to try and eliminate a small portion of the debt before the market reacts and devalues your currency again. Since the US can simply eliminate all its debt whenever it wants, it's not going to get stuck in the cycle of constantly having to print more and more paper to try and chip away at a huge debt, as was the case in Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe. The worst that can possibly happen is everyone just ditches the dollar and switches to something else. Our creditors will have to eat the loss and the new currency will definitely be much lower in value, but it will still represent the trillions of "dollars" worth of useful stuff the US makes and thus won't be worthless.

We can't afford to pay back our foreign debt in our own currency, which is why we'd have to print more of it. Even if we eliminate our debt, we've now done two things: massively inflated the amount of currency in circulation by printing more, and shattered all confidence in our currency's stability.

Now, suddenly, we can't trade in it without offering more than people think a given good is worth. That goes for domestic trade as well as international trade. Hence, more inflation.

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"Aaaah! Emotions are weird!" - Amdee
"... Mirrorshades prevent the forces of normalcy from realizing that one is crazed and possibly dangerous. They are the symbol of the sun-staring visionary, the biker, the rocker, the policeman, and similar outlaws." - Bruce Sterling, preface to Mirrorshades

/facepalm

Go back and read what I **** wrote earlier in the thread. America's special currency exemption is coming to an end.

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

Or we just ditch the dollar and switch to a different currency. Have the UN or the World Bank write up some rules for how the new currency should be managed to ensure stability and the problem is solved. Saying people wouldn't trust the new currency after the dollar disaster is like saying people wouldn't trust the Deutsche Mark after the Weimar Republic.



Yes, but when that happens, it won't be retroactive. All the debt accumulated up until that point, and all interest due, can still be erased.