Diamondeye wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
I've got a tiger rock you can have, but I'll need it back if the tigers show up.
This argument doesn't work, unless you can show me some evidence that terrorists would for some reason not exploit the ability to hijak or otherwise attack aircraft when the opportunity presents itself. The analogy does not work because while a rock bears no relationship to the presence of tigers, screening who and what goes onto an aircraft does, in fact, bear a relationship to what and who is on that aircraft. Your argument is akin to calling the village wall a tiger rock, and claiming it must not keep tigers away because there really are no tigers, despite the fact that the wall was built after a tiger attack.
The analogy I derives from the following:
A single bear wanders into town.
The residents of Springfield over react.
Homer declares that the town is infested by bears.
A bear patrol is instituted.
Homer stands outside and proclaims, “Not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol is working like a charm!”
Lisa explains: “That’s specious reasoning, dad.”
Lisa continues: "By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away."
Homer: "Oh, how does it work?"
Lisa: "It doesn't work."
Homer: "Uh-huh."
Lisa: "It's just a stupid rock."
Homer: "Uh-huh."
Lisa: "But I don't see any tigers around, do you?"
[Homer thinks of this, then pulls out some money]
Homer: "Lisa, I want to buy your rock."
[Lisa refuses at first, then takes the exchange]
Correlation does not imply causation. Just because two things occur together, does not mean that one caused the other. Lisa, in an attempt to explain to Homer his illogical belief, argues that as the presence of her rock is correlated with an absence of tigers, the former must have caused the latter.
You arguing that not having "regular terrorist incidents aboard aircraft is more than enough proof" that the TSA must have stopped the terrorist incidents is directly analogous to Homer arguing that as the Bear Patrol vans are correlated with an absence of bears, the former must have caused the latter.
I'll make it very clear:
Homer arguing that as the Bear Patrol vans are correlated with an absence of bears, the former must have caused the latter, is directly analogous to Diamondeye arguing that as the TSA presence is correlated with an absence of regular terrorist incidents aboard aircraft, the former must have caused the latter, is directly analogous to Lisa arguing that the presence of her rock is correlated with an absence of tigers, the former must have caused the latter.
Diamondeye wrote:
shuyung wrote:
Vindi has already responded to this, and I've made a similar comment to his in another thread where you claimed that the TSA is providing a valid and valuable service.
And Vindi is wrong, as I have pointed out, ebause his analogy is not appropriate.
As I have pointed out, I am not wrong, the two are directly analogous.
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"Dress cops up as soldiers, give them military equipment, train them in military tactics, tell them they’re fighting a ‘war,’ and the consequences are predictable." —Radley Balko