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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:45 pm 
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I was shocked by this but I guess no one wants to talk about it in the media since it is not an election year.

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The release of the June Jobs' Report Friday was something of a relief for the markets. The Labor Department reported that the economy gained 195,000 jobs in June, which beat economists' expectations. The Department also reported that the economy gained 70,000 more jobs in April and May than it originally estimated. The report, however, also provides clear evidence that the the nation is splitting into two; only 47% of Americans have a full-time job and those who don't are finding it increasingly out of reach.

Of the 144 million Americans employed last month, only 116 million were working full-time. Friday's report showed that 58.7% of the civilian adult population of 245 million was working last month. Only 47% of Americans, however, had a full-time job.

The market's positive reaction to Friday's report is another sign of how far our economic expectations have fallen. If today the same proportion of Americans worked as just a decade ago, there would be almost 9 million more people working. Just in the last year, almost 2 million Americans have left the labor force. With a majority of the population not holding a full-time job, it isn't surprising that economic growth has been so weak.

In June, the number of Americans who wanted to work full-time, but were forced into part-time jobs because of the economy, jumped 352,000 to over 8 million.

The Jobs' Report is increasingly measuring only a part of the American economy. While Friday's report was better than expected, it only measures those who are working or actively looking for work. There is a growing number of Americans slipping through the cracks of the job market.


and in related news 10% of the workforce are now temps.
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Recovery woes: America's second-largest employer is a temp agency
In the first quarter of 2013, U.S. staffing companies employed an average of 2.86 million...
Behind Wal-Mart, the second-largest employer in America is Kelly Services, a temporary work provider.

Friday's disappointing jobs report showed that part-time jobs are at an all-time high, with 28 million Americans now working part-time. The report also showed another disturbing fact: There are now a record number of Americans with temporary jobs.

Approximately 2.7 million, in fact. And the trend has been growing.

In the first quarter of 2013, U.S. staffing companies employed an average of 2.86 million temporary and contract workers, according to the American Staffing Association. This represents a 2.9 percent growth from the same period in 2012. For just the month of June, there was a 6.7 percent growth in the number of staffing jobs than last year.

Temp jobs made up about 10 percent of the jobs lost during the Great Recession, but now make up a tenth of the jobs in the United States. In fact, nearly one-fifth of all jobs gained since the recession ended have been temporary.

It's a sad state of affairs for our country. While part-time and temp jobs reached highs last month, full-time jobs decreased by another 240,000. The recovery, or lack thereof, is being fueled by a shift from full-time to part-time work

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:54 pm 
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No link provided for the first quote, so I'll ask:

How are the defining adults? Is this everyone over the age of 18?

If so, I'd think the numbers are a bit less shocking.

Especially if you assume there are still a reasonably large number of single earner/single primary earner households, where only one of two people would be working full time/at all.

Of the couples I know, probably half are single income, or one or the other works part time to supplement one income.

With that in mind, coupled with my question about the age range, I'd say it's a very good bullet point to say "47% of adults work full time", but it might not be that weird when you think about it.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:58 pm 
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I googled, here is the first link I found (not the same as the story above but same message and data source which is the Bureau of Labor Statistics)

http://www.policymic.com/articles/53093 ... a-recovery

This story contains more bad news:

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record 70.4 million Americans — or 20% of the country — are now on Medicaid, at a cost of $404.1 billion (both federal and state spending). A record 47.8 million Americans – or 15% of the country – are now on food stamps at a cost of $74.6 billion. A record 10.9 million Americans are now collecting Social Security disability payments with a deficit tab of $31.2 billion. That’s a cost of more than half a trillion dollars for those three programs alone.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:12 pm 
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So, quick check on the statistics in the front post, via methodology from the DLS:

The %s you cite count everyone 16 and older. That includes kids in highschool, as well as people in their 90s, as there is no upper cutoff.

Of the labor market surveyed (243,000) 88,000 (36%) are not in the labor force- neither employed nor unemployed. Some of those are people who have been unemployed long enough to stop looking for work, but also includes kids not working, college students not working, and the retired.

Of the ~10.5% of the employed populace that works part time, 7.5% are employed part-time for non-economic reasons (ie, are choosing to work part-time for reasons other than they can't find full-time work).

So yeah, 47% is a "shocking" number, but only really out of context, imo, considering that roughly 43.5% of the remaining population is largely made up of non-working spouses, part-time spouses, kids from 16-24 that are in school, and those from 65-105 that are retired.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:28 pm 
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I suppose you could look at it that way, or you could look it from a broader perspective like only 63% of the population was employed in 2007:

http://stateofworkingamerica.org/charts ... ion-ratio/

The only key development in that time was the "Great Recession" and the "Great Recovery" which resulted in a net labor partipation rate reduction of 6%.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:32 pm 
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I don't have the time, but it would be interesting to see which subsection of the population took the biggest hit.

Perusing the DLS stats, it would seem that the primary decrease in employment is for those under 25- likely, kids and college students that were working part time who have been pushed out of those jobs by adults in search of employment.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:41 pm 
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Just as a for-instance, the decrease in employment for those 16-19 years old in the time period you cite is about 10%, relative to the 5% overall decrease in employment rate.

Hard to sus out the details for 20-24 without more time than I have to play with the data atm, but I'd expect something similar.

In other words, percentages without discussion of (a) methodology and (b) demographics are political talking points and things for the media to hype up far more than they are really useable data.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:47 pm 
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More stats:

Also interesting that (since you started this off mentioning part-time work) that since 2000, the increase in part-time workers has only been ~2% of the working population. So over 10 years, not a lot of replacing full-time positions with part-time ones.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:38 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
I suppose you could look at it that way, or you could look it from a broader perspective like only 63% of the population was employed in 2007:

http://stateofworkingamerica.org/charts ... ion-ratio/

The only key development in that time was the "Great Recession" and the "Great Recovery" which resulted in a net labor partipation rate reduction of 6%.


I feel like that should be pretty high from a historical perspective.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 6:14 pm 
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True but if Khross were around he'd point out the workforce doubled when women entered the workforce in numbers and the advent of the dual income family.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 6:45 pm 
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They may be employed full time, but what are the numbers on underemployed? ;)

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:00 pm 
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How many of the 53% that are not employed full time are retired?

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:02 pm 
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Heh, skipped all my stats posts eh DE?

Generally, depending on retirement age, 13-18% of that 53% are retired.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 6:37 am 
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That's all true. It's still larger than its ever been (since 1948).

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 6:56 am 
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More damning to me is that 10% of the working population is now labelled as "temps" and that in June alone we lost 240,000 full-time jobs in exchange for 360,000 part-time jobs. Do you believe a quarter of a million people last month alone opted to go from full-time to part-time Nephyr? It seems unlikely to me but that is biased very strongly by the circle of people I know.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:40 am 
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The Work Force calculations used to have an upper bound on age (Social Security's maximum benefit age for Generation X, which had been 67 since the mid 90s), which was used and maintained through our George W. Bush's Administration. The BLS has made several substantive changes to their metrics and reporting under Obama, all of which give the appearance of better employment health than is a reality.

Long story, short, Nephyr: those numbers are more damning than Hopwin thinks, particularly since median wages calculations that are corrected for the all of the Fed's QE nonsense, are dropping.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 11:57 am 
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Oh, I'm not arguing that the numbers are particularly good. I just don't like the use of out-of-context percents (ie, OMG! Only 47% of the population is employed full time!)

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 1:07 pm 
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To say nothing of the ambiguity with this statement:
NephyrS wrote:
Generally, depending on retirement age, 13-18% of that 53% are retired.

Is the 13-18% meant to be an absolute figure, or a fraction of the 53% that are unemployed?

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 1:33 pm 
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Müs wrote:
They may be employed full time, but what are the numbers on underemployed? ;)


**** 'em. What about us poor saps that are OVERemployed?


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 1:47 pm 
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Corolinth wrote:
To say nothing of the ambiguity with this statement:
NephyrS wrote:
Generally, depending on retirement age, 13-18% of that 53% are retired.

Is the 13-18% meant to be an absolute figure, or a fraction of the 53% that are unemployed?


To be more specific, of the population at large, 13% are over 65, and 16.2% are over 62, and another ~ 2% are between 60 and 62. And then there are those that retire earlier.

So, depending on the retirement age, somewhere between 13-18% of the unemployed are retired.

If they're retired, they can't be working full time, so they would have to be part of the 53%. Hence, it's an absolute figure that's a portion of a second figure.

But yes, it's not 13-18% as a fraction of 53%, but rather 13-18% of that 53%.

Retired individuals, from my reading of the methodology, would be included in either the 43.5% of the population "not in the labor force" if they aren't working at all, or in the ~10.5% of the population that is working part-time for non economic reasons.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:15 pm 
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What about people by your definition who are retired but employed?

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:22 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
What about people by your definition who are retired but employed?


Um, they're clearly holding up jobs and careers that should be going to young people, duh.

:roll: :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:32 pm 
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Well I am just saying if you want to exclude from the workforce everyone who is older than 65 because technically they can retire then you just eliminated every employee of Wal-Mart.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:48 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
Well I am just saying if you want to exclude from the workforce everyone who is older than 65 because technically they can retire then you just eliminated every employee of Wal-Mart.


No dispute. Just sarcasm.

And many people "retire" at 62, or 55, or hell, 38, 43, or 48 for non-college government workers.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:02 pm 
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So true.

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