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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:53 am 
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Thank you for providing something productive xeq.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:22 pm 
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Looking at past numbers of nominee filibusters isn't a very relevant indicator because prior to the 1968 election each party had its own conservative and liberal wing, and divisions tended to be more along post-Reconstruction lines.

Democrats have had this idea since 2006 that they're in the driver's seat and they can just have their way. This is not how Congress works. It is not a national body where having a majority of seats for your party means you have a national mandate to pass your agenda without any effort to negotiate with the other side. Democrats demonstrated that even when they were in control of the Presidency and both Houses they still could not pass anything, ostensibly because the Republicans filibustered it all. What this really means is that you still need to negotiate. Democrats didn't learn that lesson and lost the full control they had in 2010. Congress is set up the way that it is for precisely this reason - it is supposed to be nearly impossible to get your agenda passed with no negotiation whatsoever.

They doubled down on the "we won't negotiate" with the government shutdown in 2013. "We will not negotiate with you until you have passed a budget that gives us 100% of what we want to avert this crisis - and if you don't, we will blame you for the crisis, ignoring both our own obstinacy and the fact that the crisis is the only reason we would have any incentive to negotiate at all, rather than just wait until the next crisis and repeat." The portion before the dash was what Obama said in very close to precisely those words, and somehow the Democrats expected the part after the dash to go unnoticed.

When faced with this, it's unsurprising the Republicans filibustered so much - and seeing as people like Eric Holder and Lois Lerner were put in some of these positions, they really can't be blamed for it, either. The Democrats failed to realize that 2006 and 2008 were reactions to perceived Republican excesses, not an unlimited license for liberalism - "blue dog" democrats do not have a mandate for California/New York/Illinois liberalism from their home constituencies. They also failed to understand that if they refused to negotiate they really left the Republicans with no choice but to filibuster. The voters were obviously not offended by the Republican practice.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:00 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
overall, a randomly selected Republican is more likely to have his seat taken by a Tea Party challenger in a primary election than by a Democrat in a general election. This problem doesn't exist at all on the left, Democratic incumbents losing the nomination are almost unheard of.


Sigh.

In 2014, exactly 4 incumbent House Congresscritters lost their primaries.

Eric Cantor, Republican, lost to Dave Brat who received some support from some local Tea Partiers, but has refused to affiliate with the National Tea Party.
Ralph Hall, Republican, lost to John Ratcliffe, who was endorsed by the Tea Party, but only after the primary headed to a runoff.
Kerry Bentivolio, Tea Party Republican, lost to David Trott, a normal Republican.
John Tierney, Democrat, lost to Seth Moulton, seems to be a fairly normal Democrat.

I don't know how many republican incumbents lost to democratic challengers, but not very many lost their primaries.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:13 pm 
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It happened three times as often to the R as to the D.

That's statistically insignificant!

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:36 pm 
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Müs wrote:
It happened three times as often to the R as to the D.

That's statistically insignificant!


Huh? The assertion was that republicans are more likely to be defeated in primaries than general elections. How many republicans fell to democrats in the general? What about previous elections (i.e. elections when republicans didn't win everything)?


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:48 pm 
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As I read it, it was that the R is more likely to be primaried than the D is to be primaried.

With your examples, that follows. Three Rs got primaried, and only one D.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:55 pm 
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to make an accurate comparison of the 3 to one we need to know the Number of total Ds with primary challenges vs. the number of total Rs with primary challenges. There were more Rs up for re-election. I would imagine that more Rs also had more primary challengers because there is an opposition vs establishment dynamic in the Republican party that does not exist in the Democrat party at this time. The ratios are probably a lot flatter.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 10:33 am 
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Xequecal wrote:
These are the people that actually wanted the federal government to default rather than give in on anything.


The language of this sentence demonstrates, at best, a complete economic ignorance of the current situation, and at worst, a conscious choice to be ignorant of the current situation.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:03 am 
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Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Müs wrote:
It happened three times as often to the R as to the D.

That's statistically insignificant!


Huh? The assertion was that republicans are more likely to be defeated in primaries than general elections. How many republicans fell to democrats in the general? What about previous elections (i.e. elections when republicans didn't win everything)?


In THIS election I don't think any incumbent Republicans lost to Democrats. That certainly wasn't the case in 2006, 2008, or 2012.

Furthermore, Republicans putting a Tea Party candidate in place of a moderate Republican isn't actually a "problem." It may be a problem for Democrats but if Democrats can't beat Tea Party candidates despite them being "extreme", that really calls into question what positions the Democrats are taking. The Tea Party works because its a counter to the continuous leftward shift of the Democrats and their accompanying effect on Republicans. It's a natural effect, and was inevitable sooner or later. The 2006-2008 election cycle was just a catalyst because of the sudden, abrupt shift to the left rather than the slow trend. 2010 was a reaction to that - the Tea Party gained traction because of all the votes for Blue Dogs and Obama that realized they got way more than they bargained for.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:04 am 
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Rafael wrote:
Xequecal wrote:
These are the people that actually wanted the federal government to default rather than give in on anything.


The language of this sentence demonstrates, at best, a complete economic ignorance of the current situation, and at worst, a conscious choice to be ignorant of the current situation.



Not to mention that it perfectly describes the position of the Democrats as well. "If we go over this threshold, it will be our fault for not giving us everything we want!"

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:06 pm 
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Xequecal:

There are people who wanted the government to go into sequestration. There are still people who want the government to go into sequestration, and the stop gap passed earlier this year was precisely that: a stop gap to get both parties through the election cycle. Now they either have to **** or get off the pot: our government is toxic and needs serious work from a fiscal standpoint. But, there is one thing I'm absolutely certain of ...

You cannot borrow your way out of debt.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:45 pm 
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Khross wrote:
You cannot borrow your way out of debt.

You keep making that facile statement, even though it is demonstratively untrue. Be better than a bumper sticker, Khross.

*ETA: Of course, "Be better than a bumper sticker" is a perfect slogan for a bumper sticker, so I suppose I should get this beam out of my eye before casting stones at people from the front porch of my glass house. Or something like that.


Last edited by RangerDave on Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:47 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
You cannot borrow your way out of debt.
You keep making that facile statement, even though it is demonstratively untrue. Be better than a bumper sticker, Khross.
You cannot borrow your way out of debt. You may be able to play some fiscal shenanigans with your interest rates, but increasing your debt load only moves you further away from paying off your debt.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:02 pm 
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Diamondeye wrote:
Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Müs wrote:
It happened three times as often to the R as to the D.

That's statistically insignificant!


Huh? The assertion was that republicans are more likely to be defeated in primaries than general elections. How many republicans fell to democrats in the general? What about previous elections (i.e. elections when republicans didn't win everything)?


In THIS election I don't think any incumbent Republicans lost to Democrats. That certainly wasn't the case in 2006, 2008, or 2012.

Furthermore, Republicans putting a Tea Party candidate in place of a moderate Republican isn't actually a "problem." It may be a problem for Democrats but if Democrats can't beat Tea Party candidates despite them being "extreme", that really calls into question what positions the Democrats are taking. The Tea Party works because its a counter to the continuous leftward shift of the Democrats and their accompanying effect on Republicans. It's a natural effect, and was inevitable sooner or later. The 2006-2008 election cycle was just a catalyst because of the sudden, abrupt shift to the left rather than the slow trend. 2010 was a reaction to that - the Tea Party gained traction because of all the votes for Blue Dogs and Obama that realized they got way more than they bargained for.


The issue is not that "Democrats are losing to the Tea Party" it's that there are more seats now where the real competition is between a moderate Republican and a Tea Party Republican, than there are seats where the competition is between a Republican and a Democrat. There are, of course, many seats that the Republicans have no chance to win, but those Democrats generally aren't at risk of losing their seats to a far-left organization. If it were the case that more seats were competitive between, say, the Communist Party and the Democratic Party than were competitive between D and R, that would also be a big problem.

Khross wrote:
Xequecal:

There are people who wanted the government to go into sequestration. There are still people who want the government to go into sequestration, and the stop gap passed earlier this year was precisely that: a stop gap to get both parties through the election cycle. Now they either have to **** or get off the pot: our government is toxic and needs serious work from a fiscal standpoint. But, there is one thing I'm absolutely certain of ...

You cannot borrow your way out of debt.


People keep bringing this up and it's a complete non-sequitur. At what point did Obama/Democrats claim that their $1 trillion deficit would reduce the debt? Debt reduction was not a priority of the Obama or Bush administrations Also, complains about government spending are pretty cyclical in the US and are always directed at the party currently in power. When Bush was cutting taxes and war spending, it was the Democrats that ***** about the deficit every day.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:17 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
You cannot borrow your way out of debt.

You keep making that facile statement, even though it is demonstratively untrue. Be better than a bumper sticker, Khross.


All things remaining equal, you cannot borrow your way out of debt. There is nothing to suggest that monetization and deficit spending on the programs that are the status quo are substantially increasing economic productivity. Yes, borrowing against the dollar to invest in our own economy *could* increase productivity but that's not what is being suggested.

For all and intents and purposes, what Khross says is effectively true.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:24 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
People keep bringing this up and it's a complete non-sequitur. At what point did Obama/Democrats claim that their $1 trillion deficit would reduce the debt? Debt reduction was not a priority of the Obama or Bush administrations Also, complains about government spending are pretty cyclical in the US and are always directed at the party currently in power. When Bush was cutting taxes and war spending, it was the Democrats that ***** about the deficit every day.


The ultimate reason to go further into debt is reinvest in economic productivity to eventually be out of debt. Saying anything else is semantic bullshit. We didn't become economically prosperous by being a debtor nation.

What's being sold is the insistence that government programs will eventually lead us out of debt. There has been no real reason to believe what is being sold, as they only evidence on offer is just unrelenting insistence that "it will work!"

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Last edited by Rafael on Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:05 pm 
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Rafael wrote:
There has been no real reason to believe what is being sold, as they only evidence on offer is just unrelenting insistence that "it will work!"
Raf, that's definitely true, but there's plenty of evidence supporting the notion that government stimulus fails. Japan has been aggressively easing its currency values for almost 20 years. Japan has been fighting deflation for the better part of the last two decades, if not longer. And, yet, Japan cannot seem to borrow its way out of debt, either. The country is saddle with a ridiculous amount of wasteful government projects and other white elephants that were supposed to be direct economic stimulus. It didn't work. Japan's been an economic disaster by all heterodox measures for the last 3 decades. And we're talking about a consumer economy and society that makes most of the United States look downright anti-consumerism.

On the other hand, China is in the business of loaning money to people; they have the fastest growing industrial economy on the planet. In fact, China's economy is a run away freight train without enough track, but that's a different discussion.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:10 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
The issue is not that "Democrats are losing to the Tea Party" it's that there are more seats now where the real competition is between a moderate Republican and a Tea Party Republican, than there are seats where the competition is between a Republican and a Democrat. There are, of course, many seats that the Republicans have no chance to win, but those Democrats generally aren't at risk of losing their seats to a far-left organization. If it were the case that more seats were competitive between, say, the Communist Party and the Democratic Party than were competitive between D and R, that would also be a big problem.


The Tea Party is not the right-wing equivalent of the Communist party. It's the right wing of the Republican party given organized form because the baseline Republican party was ineffective in addressing liberal victim-advocacy tactics. Victim-advocacy was what resulted in Obamacare ("ZOMG! 40% with no health insurance!") and it was what got the Democrats some recovery from 2010 losses in 2012. ("War on Women" fabricated for the occasion, and held up long enough to get them through the election cycle.) The Democrats don't have an equivalent because in the current political "meta" there isn't room for one. The mainstream Democrat (i.e. representing the middle of the Democrat spectrum, not a center-left Democrat moderate) keeps continually shifting farther left. If it were the reverse, and Republicans were constantly shifting political discussion farther right through some means, you'd see a leftist equivalent of the Tea Party. It might be a separate organization or part of the Democratic party but it would fill the same function. It would not, however, be the Communist party for the same reason the Libertarian party has not gained traction even as the Tea Party attains prominence.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:17 pm 
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Rafael wrote:
Xequecal wrote:
People keep bringing this up and it's a complete non-sequitur. At what point did Obama/Democrats claim that their $1 trillion deficit would reduce the debt? Debt reduction was not a priority of the Obama or Bush administrations Also, complains about government spending are pretty cyclical in the US and are always directed at the party currently in power. When Bush was cutting taxes and war spending, it was the Democrats that ***** about the deficit every day.


The ultimate reason to go further into debt is reinvest in economic productivity to eventually be out of debt. Saying anything else is semantic bullshit. We didn't become economic prosperous to become by being a debtor nation.

What's being sold is the insistence that government programs will eventually lead us out of debt. There has been no real reason to believe what is being sold, as they only evidence on offer is just unrelenting insistence that "it will work!"


Not even that. We're basically being told that we just can't cut because.. well, it might mean the voters directly feel the consequences. Fear of cuts to social spending (including, at state and local levels, school spending) is one of the central victim-advocacy tactics of Democrats. If Democrats ever actually are forced to make real cuts in social spending, it will be "Read My Lips - No New Taxes" on steroids and powered by a Lockheed fusion reactor for them.

Being unable to spend government money on social justice is the absolute political worst-case scenario for the Democratic party. It could be bad news for Republicans too, if when the major cuts finally do happen it can be pinned on them, as their answer to Democratic social spending has (mostly) been "ok, but not quite THAT many dollars" because trying to push for real cuts makes them racist misogynist redneck assholes or something like that. Democrats, however, literally cannot survive as they have no political ideals that don't involve spending endless money to solve an endless supply of social injustice. Liberalism absolutely requires A) victims to help and B) money to spend helping them. Victims can be manufactured politically. Money has an upper limit to that based on actual economic activity. When it's reached...

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:50 pm 
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Rafael wrote:
The ultimate reason to go further into debt is reinvest in economic productivity to eventually be out of debt. Saying anything else is semantic bullshit. We didn't become economic prosperous to become by being a debtor nation.

What's being sold is the insistence that government programs will eventually lead us out of debt. There has been no real reason to believe what is being sold, as they only evidence on offer is just unrelenting insistence that "it will work!"


I've never seen the Obama spending increases actually sold as a way to reduce the debt in the future. It was always sold as essentially charity to create temporary jobs and keep people employed in order to prevent large swaths of people from becoming penniless during the recession.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:10 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
I've never seen the Obama spending increases actually sold as a way to reduce the debt in the future. It was always sold as essentially charity to create temporary jobs and keep people employed in order to prevent large swaths of people from becoming penniless during the recession.
It's a depression, and it's still going on, despite all statements by our government to the contrary. Artificial inflation is not real growth, and artificial inflation has immediate pricing impacts. You can watch the prices rise every time they buy another bundle of bonds.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:53 pm 
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Diamondeye wrote:
Not even that. We're basically being told that we just can't cut because.. well, it might mean the voters directly feel the consequences. Fear of cuts to social spending (including, at state and local levels, school spending) is one of the central victim-advocacy tactics of Democrats. If Democrats ever actually are forced to make real cuts in social spending, it will be "Read My Lips - No New Taxes" on steroids and powered by a Lockheed fusion reactor for them.


We can't cut because voters won't take responsibility for the consequences. That's the reality behind most social spending. Why does Social Security exist? It exists because even in an era where failing to save for retirement had far more dire consequences than it does today, people simply didn't do it. You can preach personal responsibility all you want but it eventually reaches a point where you're making the same mistake Communists do and assuming people are better than they are.

The fact is, we live in a country where over half the EMPLOYED population lives paycheck to paycheck. Hell, I just read an article where they polled Americans on their ability to afford a $2,000 unexpected expense on 30 days notice, and learned that almost half of Americans don't even have the available credit to cover that expense, let alone actual money in a bank account to do so. You can't just go and blame all this on government tax policies when Europeans with >60% tax burdens manage to save more than Americans do.

You can complain about the inefficiency and wastefulness of government meddling all you want, but the policymakers have to address this reality. Take health care for example. How are you going to provide health care to a population where the majority literally has negative savings? The thing about private health insurance is if you want it to work, it has to function as, well, insurance. Insurance is supposed to be a risk spreading mechanism. It's something you buy to cover yourself against catastrophes, where you need to spread the risk because you can't realistically ever afford to deal with the catastrophe yourself. Insurance is not supposed to cover all the little expenses that you already know about in advance, like routine doctor and dentist visits. When you use insurance for that, you're essentially doing the same thing as the idiot that buys the service plan and extended warranty plan at checkout at Best Buy. It's a gigantic money pit because the insurance company has to hire tons of bureaucrats to scrunitize claims and protect themselves from the absurd moral hazard associated with all their customers buying insurance against expenses they know they're going to have.

The problem is, we can't adopt a sane health insurance model that only protects you against big bills, you know, like every other kind of insurance does. Americans NEED full-coverage insurance because they simply don't have any money for unexpected bills. Without total coverage, a $300 bill to see a doctor, get a prescription, and then fill a prescription for a routine problem is something they just can't afford. This is why co-pays are so effective in controlling costs for insurance companies. Make them pay $30 to see a doctor and $30 to fill a presciption and many people won't, because it's a serious problem for them to come up with the $60 on short notice.

Americans spend their entire paycheck the instant they get it. This is actually why we have those terrible extended warranty plans in the first place. For your average American, if they want to buy something like a cell phone, they can't just go withdraw $500 and buy it. They don't have it. What they have to do is cut some expense out of their budget, and then save the $500 over a number of weeks to buy the phone. Now, they need that extended warranty because if something were to happen to the phone, they'd be left without a phone. They can't wait the weeks required to save up for another phone, because they need a phone. So it's much easier to just leave whatever they cut from their budget out and keep putting that money towards a $20/month insurance plan for the phone.

Why do you think we have government subsidized group plans for insurance? We have them because the government knows that if you don't essentially force companies who have employees that are remotely worth giving health insurance to buy it for them, the employees certainly won't do it on their own. If we dismantled the subsidized employer group plans and just had the employers pay every employee in cash what they were paying for health insurance before, that just results in a shitload more profits for China as all those people just go and consume more stuff. In addition, the minority that did save their money end up having to pay for everyone else's problems anyway when they end up in the hospital.


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That's a great rant X, and I agree that the US seems to save little. However when you compare the US savings rates to European rates with that much hyperbole, you invite scrutiny.

If the standard you use is that "Americans spend their entire paycheck the instant they get it" combined with "...it's a serious problem for them to come up with the $60 on short notice", I think you've veered off into fantasyland. You compare US savings rates with those of "Europeans", and make it seem as if "Europeans" are so much more frugal. That may be the case, but if Americans can't some up with $60 on short notice, then neither can say, Germans. If the US savings rate of disposable income is so terrible, please explain to me why the financial wealth per adult in 2011 was $132,822 in the US and $49,484 in Germany. Why did France only have $47,668? Doesn't that contradict your statements directly? Maybe you were only looking at part of the picture when you look at those savings rates "articles", and are forgetting to look at the income portion? Seeing as the "Disposable Income" in the US was well over double that of those in France and Germany, maybe that's part of the puzzle you're missing...

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:19 am 
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Xequecal wrote:
Rafael wrote:
The ultimate reason to go further into debt is reinvest in economic productivity to eventually be out of debt. Saying anything else is semantic bullshit. We didn't become economic prosperous to become by being a debtor nation.

What's being sold is the insistence that government programs will eventually lead us out of debt. There has been no real reason to believe what is being sold, as they only evidence on offer is just unrelenting insistence that "it will work!"


I've never seen the Obama spending increases actually sold as a way to reduce the debt in the future. It was always sold as essentially charity to create temporary jobs and keep people employed in order to prevent large swaths of people from becoming penniless during the recession.


Why is it important "to create temporary jobs and keep people employed"? Why not just give them traveler's checks in the mail every month?

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Vindicarre wrote:
That's a great rant X, and I agree that the US seems to save little. However when you compare the US savings rates to European rates with that much hyperbole, you invite scrutiny.

If the standard you use is that "Americans spend their entire paycheck the instant they get it" combined with "...it's a serious problem for them to come up with the $60 on short notice", I think you've veered off into fantasyland. You compare US savings rates with those of "Europeans", and make it seem as if "Europeans" are so much more frugal. That may be the case, but if Americans can't some up with $60 on short notice, then neither can say, Germans. If the US savings rate of disposable income is so terrible, please explain to me why the financial wealth per adult in 2011 was $132,822 in the US and $49,484 in Germany. Why did France only have $47,668? Doesn't that contradict your statements directly? Maybe you were only looking at part of the picture when you look at those savings rates "articles", and are forgetting to look at the income portion? Seeing as the "Disposable Income" in the US was well over double that of those in France and Germany, maybe that's part of the puzzle you're missing...


This is the table I used:

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/ ... 84x-table7

US at 4%, Germany at 9.6%, Switzerland is at 13.4%. The Euro area as a whole is double what we save.


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