shuyung wrote:
I know you have deep philosophical problems with the concept, but I do not find it at all unseemly that a private research effort can make a breakthrough that a bureaucratic white elephant can't.
Also, you seem to think that "small team" means something like "3 people with a couple of laptops and twine". I suspect that "small team" means something wildly different to Lockheed.
Indeed, "small team" probably means "significantly smaller than the F-22 production team." The SR-71 was developed by a "small team" too.
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I tend to agree with Xeq on this one, if only from a physics perspective. I certainly hope it's true though. I don't care where it comes from or who develops it.
The problem isn't the physics, its the engineering. There's a quote from the ITER team to the effect of "we want to put the sun in the box, the problem is making the box." Lockheed is claiming to have a method for making a box that will be viable for actual production 10 years from now.
It shouldn't be hard for anyone to believe they are "farther ahead" by trying a different method, either. That's often how engineering breakthroughs happen - by trying a different method for approaching a problem. ITER is largely locked into their way of building a reactor; it's not made out of legos where you can constantly tear it down and rebuild it to try different approaches. If Lockheed took a different path that simply worked better, and stopped trying any path that wasn't working as soon as that was apparent, they wouldn't be locked in to one approach until they found one that works.
ITER is the sunk costs fallacy. They've put all this money into making it happen, so they keep throwing money at it to make it work because admitting failure means all that money is gone - and it's reinforced by the political need to make "international cooperation" work.
If this technology works, it will mean huge improvements for everyone- and the research money came from Lockheed's defense contracts. Defense money is, more often than not, money well spent. The desire to be able to blow up things faster, more easily, and (in this case) without as many fuel tankers produces tangible benefits much sooner than throwing it at social programs - and international cooperation projects like this are just social spending dressed up in the lingerie of physics.