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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:12 pm 
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/ ... EM20141015


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(Reuters) - Lockheed Martin Corp said on Wednesday it had made a technological breakthrough in developing a power source based on nuclear fusion, and the first reactors, small enough to fit on the back of a truck, could be ready for use in a decade.

Tom McGuire, who heads the project, said he and a small team had been working on fusion energy at Lockheed's secretive Skunk Works for about four years, but were now going public to find potential partners in industry and government for their work.

Initial work demonstrated the feasibility of building a 100-megawatt reactor measuring seven feet by 10 feet, which could fit on the back of a large truck, and is about 10 times smaller than current reactors, McGuire told reporters.

In a statement, the company, the Pentagon's largest supplier, said it would build and test a compact fusion reactor in less than a year, and build a prototype in five years.

In recent years, Lockheed has gotten increasingly involved in a variety of alternate energy projects, including several ocean energy projects, as it looks to offset a decline in U.S. and European military spending.

Lockheed's work on fusion energy could help in developing new power sources amid increasing global conflicts over energy, and as projections show there will be a 40 percent to 50 percent increase in energy use over the next generation, McGuire said.

If it proves feasible, Lockheed's work would mark a key breakthrough in a field that scientists have long eyed as promising, but which has not yet yielded viable power systems. The effort seeks to harness the energy released during nuclear fusion, when atoms combine into more stable forms.

"We can make a big difference on the energy front," McGuire said, noting Lockheed's 60 years of research on nuclear fusion as a potential energy source that is safer and more efficient than current reactors based on nuclear fission.

Lockheed sees the project as part of a comprehensive approach to solving global energy and climate change problems.

Compact nuclear fusion would produce far less waste than coal-powered plants since it would use deuterium-tritium fuel, which can generate nearly 10 million times more energy than the same amount of fossil fuels, the company said.

Ultra-dense deuterium, an isotope of hydrogen, is found in the earth's oceans, and tritium is made from natural lithium deposits.

It said future reactors could use a different fuel and eliminate radioactive waste completely.

McGuire said the company had several patents pending for the work and was looking for partners in academia, industry and among government laboratories to advance the work.

Lockheed said it had shown it could complete a design, build and test it in as little as a year, which should produce an operational reactor in 10 years, McGuire said. A small reactor could power a U.S. Navy warship, and eliminate the need for other fuel sources that pose logistical challenges.

U.S. submarines and aircraft carriers run on nuclear power, but they have large fission reactors on board that have to be replaced on a regular cycle.

"What makes our project really interesting and feasible is that timeline as a potential solution," McGuire said.

Lockheed shares fell 0.6 percent to $175.02 amid a broad market selloff.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:18 pm 
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There goes Lockheed ruining the environment with nuclear power.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:54 pm 
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So Lockheed for some reason wouldn't bankroll his fusion power reactor, so now he's "going independent." Nope, there's absolutely no way this is a scam like the last 500 guys who went looking for "independent funding" for their fusion power scams!

What baffles me is how venture capitalists keep handing money to these people. Fusion power is like the perpetual motion machine of the 21st century, people should know better by now.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:04 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
So Lockheed for some reason wouldn't bankroll his fusion power reactor, so now he's "going independent." Nope, there's absolutely no way this is a scam like the last 500 guys who went looking for "independent funding" for their fusion power scams!

What baffles me is how venture capitalists keep handing money to these people. Fusion power is like the perpetual motion machine of the 21st century, people should know better by now.


What are you talking about? He's not leaving Lockheed.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:26 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
What baffles me is how venture capitalists keep handing money to these people. Fusion power is like the perpetual motion machine of the 21st century, people should know better by now.
Ummmm ...

Let me fill you in a few things: stellarators, tokamak, and inertial containment fusion. It's not an issue of making fusion happen; we've been able to do that for 60 years or thereabouts. It's an issue of getting more energy out of the system than you put in to make the reaction happen.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:46 pm 
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Tom McGuire, who heads the project, said he and a small team had been working on fusion energy at Lockheed's secretive Skunk Works for about four years, but were now going public to find potential partners in industry and government for their work.


If they actually have a working fusion power reactor it's the biggest breakthrough of the 21st century, but for some reason they need outside assistance. And a "small team" at Lockheed, in complete secret of course, managed to pull off what nobody else has in like 60 years?

I'm still calling scam.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:08 pm 
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First of all, that's what a skunk works is. You feed in every last piece of tech and a whole bunch of smart people, and see what they can produce. While they're doing that, you shoot anybody who crosses the fence without proper ID.

You also don't seem to understand the ramifications of producing something like this. If true, demand will so far outstrip even Lockheed's facilities that they have to rope in partners.

I'm all for being skeptical, but at least have a modicum of sense when you're doing it.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:10 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
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Tom McGuire, who heads the project, said he and a small team had been working on fusion energy at Lockheed's secretive Skunk Works for about four years, but were now going public to find potential partners in industry and government for their work.


If they actually have a working fusion power reactor it's the biggest breakthrough of the 21st century, but for some reason they need outside assistance. And a "small team" at Lockheed, in complete secret of course, managed to pull off what nobody else has in like 60 years?

I'm still calling scam.


Dude, the entire rest of the article goes on to talk about LOCKHEED doing stuff with the project. He was doing it at the Skunk Works, which is basically where Lockheed does secret work. That's where the SR-71 was developed, for example. The company is "going public" in the sense of not hiding the project any more.

Why would Lockheed stake their reputation on a science scam? They're the biggest defense contractor out there; they have a lot to lose from that.

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First of all, that's what a skunk works is. You feed in every last piece of tech and a whole bunch of smart people, and see what they can produce. While they're doing that, you shoot anybody who crosses the fence without proper ID.

You also don't seem to understand the ramifications of producing something like this. If true, demand will so far outstrip even Lockheed's facilities that they have to rope in partners.

I'm all for being skeptical, but at least have a modicum of sense when you're doing it.


This.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:26 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
Fusion power is like the perpetual motion machine of the 21st century, people should know better by now.


Sure, except one of them is impossible and the other has natural occurrences in every direction around us as far as we can see.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:42 pm 
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I'm skeptical because it does not seem possible that a "small team" created not only a working fusion reactor that already has practical applications, but also apparently managed to miniaturize it as well, while literally no one else anywhere has ever even come close to building one that produces more power than it consumes, or can sustain the fusion reaction for more than a few milliseconds.

The ITER project has been delayed for literally two decades due to various problems and is going to cost about five times as much as Lockheed's annual operating income, and their theoretical DEMO plant that they're planning to build after ITER is shown to work would be less of a breakthrough than this thing is. I'm expected to believe that a "small team" in a secret lab made the whole thing completely and utterly superfluous?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:47 pm 
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That's pure awesome if it's true. (And no, nothing in the article indicates he's leaving Lockheed. This is a Lockheed project.)

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:50 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
The ITER project has been delayed for literally two decades due to various problems and is going to cost about five times as much as Lockheed's annual operating income, and now I'm expected to believe that a "small team" in a secret lab made the whole thing completely and utterly superfluous?


So it's your contention that since ITER hasn't achieved fusion with their reactor idea, it isn't possible? What if their idea is just shitty and the people at Lockheed have a better one? Some of the greatest scientific discoveries were made by individuals with unique ideas, not big teams with too much money and bad ideas.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:57 pm 
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Lenas wrote:
Xequecal wrote:
The ITER project has been delayed for literally two decades due to various problems and is going to cost about five times as much as Lockheed's annual operating income, and now I'm expected to believe that a "small team" in a secret lab made the whole thing completely and utterly superfluous?


So it's your contention that since ITER hasn't achieved fusion with their reactor idea, it isn't possible? What if their idea is just shitty and the people at Lockheed have a better one? Some of the greatest scientific discoveries were made by individuals with unique ideas, not big teams with too much money and bad ideas.


I didn't say it was impossible, it just doesn't seem plausible that these guys are just THAT far ahead of everyone else. This, like, gives them a bigger lead over the whole field of physics than Einstein had when he discovered relativity.

EDIT: Now that I think about it, the analogy with perpetual motion was a bad one. I was going for, "has had about as many people publish scams claiming they've built a working perpetual motion machine," not "is impossible like a perpetual motion machine."


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:25 pm 
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I know you have deep philosophical problems with the concept, but I do not find it at all unseemly that a private research effort can make a breakthrough that a bureaucratic white elephant can't.

Also, you seem to think that "small team" means something like "3 people with a couple of laptops and twine". I suspect that "small team" means something wildly different to Lockheed.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:57 pm 
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Remember, ITER is the EU's great achievement of big multi-government spending. That a private American firm might achieve what they can't is offensive to Europeans.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:00 pm 
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Yes, and France is seriously offended when American wines win European blind tasting competitions in Europe with French judges. Some of the best California wines regularly win those competitions, not exclusively, but when they don't win they almost always place well. Europeans being offended by Americans is nothing new.

If this breakthrough is true, it is nothing to be offended at. Embarrassed perhaps, but not offended. Scientific breakthroughs happen where they happen.

The manner in which the announcement was made makes me think Lockheed is looking for a sure thing and there are a lot of kinks to work out. Outside investors would lower Lockheed's risk and they know they have no hope of keeping the patent in the box once the product comes out. It is too game changing. China for example will reverse engineer it, and build it cheaper and less safe, but cheaper and the world will buy it.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:30 am 
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I tend to agree with Xeq on this one, if only from a physics perspective. I certainly hope it's true though. I don't care where it comes from or who develops it.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:39 am 
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I think some people are getting confused with cold fusion. We are powered by a giant fusion reactor. It isn't fiction from a physics perspective.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:21 am 
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Xequecal wrote:
I'm skeptical because it does not seem possible that a "small team" created not only a working fusion reactor that already has practical applications, but also apparently managed to miniaturize it as well, while literally no one else anywhere has ever even come close to building one that produces more power than it consumes, or can sustain the fusion reaction for more than a few milliseconds.


A small team backed by the resources of one of the world's largest defense contractors, responsible for some aircraft that were aviation miracles in their time.

Look at the underlined portion. This is the problem. You're relying on what seems intuitively possible to you. Skepticism should never be based on "how things seem to me."

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The ITER project has been delayed for literally two decades due to various problems and is going to cost about five times as much as Lockheed's annual operating income, and their theoretical DEMO plant that they're planning to build after ITER is shown to work would be less of a breakthrough than this thing is. I'm expected to believe that a "small team" in a secret lab made the whole thing completely and utterly superfluous?


Yes? The fact that one team is beating their heads against the wall does not somehow mean that breakthroughs from other sources utilizing different approaches are not possible, or for that matter even unlikely.

ITER is an international project between numerous nations with disparate strategic interests and the normal international quibbles over funding. It has all the vices of government projects anywhere, aggravated by the number of governments involved.

Lockheed is a corporation with a focused profit motive and no such encumbrances, and they also have the benefit of knowing about the problems ITER is experiencing and therefore to try something else. They could have quietly terminated this program at any time, and chose not to. They might be wrong, but there's no reason to think it's a scam or that they have anything other than a sincere belief that they're on to something - and they did say that they are still 10 years away from anything practical as a working model. Lockheed is not out to scam the government out of a few billion dollars; the inevitable legal consequences would doom them. They want to sell the government reactors at a billion dollars apiece to put aboard every ship the Navy has. -which would be a bargain at twice that when we think about the benefits of freeing the Navy from reliance on oil.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:03 am 
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From a physics perspective its not hard to understand how one gets energy out of a sustained fusion reaction. It might be hard to understand from an engineering perspective.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:24 am 
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Xequecal:

The American private sector has been proving the European big government funding model wrong for centuries.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:39 am 
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shuyung wrote:
I know you have deep philosophical problems with the concept, but I do not find it at all unseemly that a private research effort can make a breakthrough that a bureaucratic white elephant can't.

Also, you seem to think that "small team" means something like "3 people with a couple of laptops and twine". I suspect that "small team" means something wildly different to Lockheed.


Indeed, "small team" probably means "significantly smaller than the F-22 production team." The SR-71 was developed by a "small team" too.

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I tend to agree with Xeq on this one, if only from a physics perspective. I certainly hope it's true though. I don't care where it comes from or who develops it.


The problem isn't the physics, its the engineering. There's a quote from the ITER team to the effect of "we want to put the sun in the box, the problem is making the box." Lockheed is claiming to have a method for making a box that will be viable for actual production 10 years from now.

It shouldn't be hard for anyone to believe they are "farther ahead" by trying a different method, either. That's often how engineering breakthroughs happen - by trying a different method for approaching a problem. ITER is largely locked into their way of building a reactor; it's not made out of legos where you can constantly tear it down and rebuild it to try different approaches. If Lockheed took a different path that simply worked better, and stopped trying any path that wasn't working as soon as that was apparent, they wouldn't be locked in to one approach until they found one that works.

ITER is the sunk costs fallacy. They've put all this money into making it happen, so they keep throwing money at it to make it work because admitting failure means all that money is gone - and it's reinforced by the political need to make "international cooperation" work.

If this technology works, it will mean huge improvements for everyone- and the research money came from Lockheed's defense contracts. Defense money is, more often than not, money well spent. The desire to be able to blow up things faster, more easily, and (in this case) without as many fuel tankers produces tangible benefits much sooner than throwing it at social programs - and international cooperation projects like this are just social spending dressed up in the lingerie of physics.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:12 am 
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There's a whole lot of information in the article about what Lockheed is doing for anyone who knows enough about fusion to actually comment on the viability of their project. I'm not one of those people, but I know enough about fusion to suspect they have come up with a hybrid device of some type; however, I wouldn't even begin to know exactly what they're doing. Lockheed is Lockheed. The Skunk Works is the Skunk Works. These are the people who brought you the SR-71 Blackbird and the U-2 Dragon Lady. Individuals like Clarence "Kelly" Johnson worked for Lockheed's Skunk Works. They are incredibly good at solving problems most people don't ever consider.

Lockheed is one of exactly 3 companies I'll give credibility to on fusion breakthroughs. General Electric and IBM are the other two.

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Last edited by Khross on Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:06 pm 
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Skunk Works Reveals Compact Fusion Reactor Details

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:03 pm 
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Khross wrote:
There's a whole lot of information in the article about what Lockheed is doing for anyone who knows enough about fusion to actually comment on the viability of their project. I'm not one of those people, but I know enough about fusion to suspect they have come up with a hybrid device of some time, but I wouldn't even begin to know exactly what they're doing. Lockheed is Lockheed. The Skunk Works is the Skunk Works. These are the people who brought you the SR-71 Blackbird and the U-2 Dragon Lady. Individuals like Clarence "Kelly" Johnson worked for Lockheed's Skunk Works. They are incredibly good at solving problems most people don't ever consider.

Lockheed is one of exactly 3 companies I'll give credibility to on fusion breakthroughs. General Electric and IBM are the other two.


^^This

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