The Glade 4.0

Western Canada Growing season in review – 2010

Bruce Burnett
Director of weather and market analysis
Canadian Wheat Board

Dry soils were the main concern early in the season as western Saskatchewan and central and northern Alberta were still recovering from the drought that occurred in the previous crop year. Unexpectedly, excessive moisture became the largest threat to crop production during May and June as near-record to record rainfall amounts covered most of the Prairie region. The excess rainfall resulted in the largest abandoned acreage in Western Canada since the early 19702, when government programs intentionally idled acreage. The wet conditions persisted through most of the growing season and into harvest, which resulted in downgraded crop quality. The net result of the growing season is a smaller-than-average crop, with a larger-than-normal portion falling into the lower grades.

The 2010 planting season began on a positive note with above-normal temperatures and an early start to planting in the southern and western growing areas. Dryness in central and northern Alberta and in west central Saskatchewan was of greatest concern, as the region had not recovered from an extensive drought in 2009. Temperatures were one to five degrees above normal on the eastern Prairies and close to normal in western regions. The warm temperatures allowed planting to start in mid-to-late April. A series of late-season rain and snowstorms helped replenish moisture in previously dry areas in early May. Seeding progress was ahead of normal by the beginning of May, with 15 per cent of the overall crop planted by May 3. Progress continued in most areas through the third week of May, with about 64 per cent of the crop planted by May 25. A series of storms during late May and early June dropped between 50 and 200 millimetres of precipitation over most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, delaying planting and causing flooding in fields that had been previously planted. Overall planting progress stopped with just over 80 per cent of the western Canadian crop sown.

Wet, cool conditions persisted through July and August, with slow crop development of later-planted crops. Temperatures were the coolest in the western areas of the Prairies, while Manitoba and parts of eastern Saskatchewan were closer to normal. Crops entered the reproductive stage in late July and early August, which is about three to four weeks behind normal. The cooler temperatures allowed crops to move through the reproductive stage without significant stress. Dry conditions persisted in the northern growing areas of Alberta during July, which caused stress to crops in the Peace River region. The Peace River region of Alberta and British Columbia experienced drought conditions for most of the growing season and was the only western region to report above-normal temperatures

The wet, cool conditions continued into September, further delaying the onset of harvest and causing quality degradation in eastern regions that had just started harvest activity. A severe frost was reported in the middle of September in Alberta and western Saskatchewan, which caused damage to immature crops. The frost date was close to average, but the temperatures were extremely cold (-2 to -5 C) during the event. Dry, warmer weather during the last week of September allowed the harvest to resume in the eastern Prairies, while western areas continued to mature and dry-down for harvest. Mostly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures were reported across the entire Prairie region during October, which allowed for a rapid completion of the harvest. The dry weather allowed harvest to near completion by the end of the month.

The loss of area due to excess moisture has resulted in a significant drop in production of the major crops from 2010. Despite the heavy rains during the year, crop yields have been average to slightly-above average for wheat, durum and barley. Total wheat production for Western Canada is currently estimated at 21 million tonnes*, while barley output is expected to reach only seven million tonnes. Spring wheat production is estimated at 17.1 million tonnes, while durum production is expected to decline to three million tonnes. Spring wheat yields are forecast to reach 2.7 tonnes per hectare, which is significantly lower than last year. Durum yields are expected to be similar to last year at 2.4 tonnes per hectare. Barley yields are also expected to be similar to last year at 3.2 tonnes per hectare. The quality of the wheat and barley crops is below average, due to poor weather during the growing season. The main quality concerns have been downgrading due to mildew, frost damage and fusarium damage. Most of the downgrading is directly linked to the delayed development of the crop and the excessive moisture present through most of the growing season.