The Glade 4.0

And that is exactly what causes the hyperinflation. Which we can no longer export. Because the dollar is no longer a global currency.

Are you following yet?

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

I feel it is important to point out that the United States produces more food per unit area than any other country in the world. The next closest is China, who is able to match the 1960s food production of the United States. In order to keep up with global population increases within the next thirty years, the world's farmers will need to meet a production level per unit area of double what the United States is currently producing.

Now, the American farmers appear to be on track to hit the necessary food production. When food prices start doubling, they are only going to remain at those levels for so long. Food shortages tend to fix themselves.

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Buckle your pants or they might fall down.

Reflection, surprise, terror. For the future.

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Well Ali Baba had them forty thieves, Scheherezade had a thousand tales
But master you in luck 'cause up your sleeves you got a brand of magic never fails...
...Mister Aladdin, sir, What will your pleasure be?
Let me take your order, Jot it down -You ain't never had a friend like me
█ ♣ █

Thomas Malthus to the rescue!

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

Lets see.

First we would see that governments are illiquid and that contracts are being refused to be followed as the powers that be craft the law they wish to serve whom they wish. We saw this with Obama's shafting preferred stock and bond holders.

Also:
http://www.businessinsider.com/national ... lan-2011-2

We will also see a dramatic change in base food futures and commodities.

http://escapetyranny.com/2011/02/15/inf ... ice-index/

All the while the government maintains its mask that inflation is not occurring. http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm

We will see an increase in jobless rates among prime employable but tricks will be used to hide jobless rates http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-0 ... -says.html and to take individual off unemployment roles earlier http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usu ... yment+rate

There will be a public outcry to pull in our spending. http://www.teaparty.org/ However only lip service will be paid as politicians scurry to protect their power and the cuts will be barely anything http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/b ... 00-billion

The tipping point will likely be an unsuccessful bond auction, a decision by OPEC, or a statement by European investors as a whole or China.

Once that happens (which is 2-5 years away) it will take about 2 weeks to a month before America fundamentally changes. Seizure of 401ks by the government will be likely, outlawing precious metal ownership, widespread and public discontent with police forces and military presence growing in the cities as food prices rise far beyond any welfare payments. Many city blocks are destroyed causing massive spikes in angry and hungry people with nothing to lose. These people get shipped to detainment camps to starve away from the public.

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"...but there exists also in the human heart a depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak to attempt to lower the powerful to their own level and reduces men to prefer equality in slavery to inequality with freedom." - De Tocqueville

Make our output predictions when petroleum based fertilizers are no longer an economically viable means to increase crop yields. Factor in transportation costs approx 5 times what they are currently along with an increase rate of taxation. Where do you see end consumer prices stabilizing?

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"...but there exists also in the human heart a depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak to attempt to lower the powerful to their own level and reduces men to prefer equality in slavery to inequality with freedom." - De Tocqueville

Why do you assume that the US will keep accumulating debt at current or in excess of current rates when creditors start demanding to be repaid in gold or yuan instead of in dollars 10 years down the line?

http://mst.edu/

Their biological engineering department is successfully producing oil from the algae found on the surface of Missouri lakes.

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Buckle your pants or they might fall down.

High levels of inflation are not occurring. People are buying T-bills at 3%, why would they do so if inflation was that high? They'd be paying the government to loan it money.

The Australian currency is stronger than the US atm.
Petrol is $1.60 per Litre

Back 3 years ago when I first visited the US, our dollar was alittle more than half yours.
Petrol was $1.20 per Litre...

There's been hyper inflation... lots of it, big coporations are still cutting jobs, housing prices are dorment and rentals have gone through the roof. Spending have been below the estimates for the second quarter, and thats just in Australia.

So no, it's not over yet.

Because the things we borrow to spend on won't go away? Unless you think that seniors are suddenly going to accept that they need to just die because they can't pay for their own medical care and have no savings (it was dollar denominated even if they did, and thus worth nothing), social security, welfare, etc.

Unless you think that all that societal climate will dramatically change, I suppose.

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"Aaaah! Emotions are weird!" - Amdee
"... Mirrorshades prevent the forces of normalcy from realizing that one is crazed and possibly dangerous. They are the symbol of the sun-staring visionary, the biker, the rocker, the policeman, and similar outlaws." - Bruce Sterling, preface to Mirrorshades

Does it make more sense to you now?

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"Dress cops up as soldiers, give them military equipment, train them in military tactics, tell them they’re fighting a ‘war,’ and the consequences are predictable." —Radley Balko

Whose retirement savings are denominated in dollars? Do you really save for retirement by just putting money in a bank account? Don't you have investments in like mutual funds or something? Saving actual dollars is dumb even in good economic conditions because even "regular" inflation will destroy you. If you have a mutual fund those corporate shares will be worth something in the new currency as well.

I'm a little confused. Are your mutual funds with a foregin company or not tied to the American Dollar somehow? Eventually, unless you don't live in the US, aren't you going to have to convert your retirement into an American Dollar at some point?

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A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself. ~ John Stuart Mill

Some thoughts.

1) Most of you have no concrete idea of what economic collapse means

2) You seem to think horrible things will happen to the U.S. in some abstract fashion that doesn't actually affect your day-to-day living

3) You don't know when or what will happen exactly, just that everything will spiral downwards (to the point where everything, of course, remains nearly the same).

4) 2 or 3% more unemployment does not mean economic collapse.

5) You use economic models like a drunk hipster uses astrophysics to predict asteroids hitting the Earth

The willows must scuttle carefully.
Proving, once again, that Everything Is Better With an Alyson Hannigan Avatar(TM).

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Sail forth! steer for the deep waters only!
Reckless, O soul, exploring, I with thee, and thou with me;
For we are bound where mariner has not yet dared to go,
And we will risk the ship, ourselves and all.

Why would you need to convert to the US dollar? If the US dollar crashes and burns and a new currency replaces it, just convert your retirement to that currency.

All of that is rather moot. If the dollar crashes, it's highly unlikely that any of your mutual funds will be worth a damn (in any currency) afterwards.

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Sail forth! steer for the deep waters only!
Reckless, O soul, exploring, I with thee, and thou with me;
For we are bound where mariner has not yet dared to go,
And we will risk the ship, ourselves and all.

Someone really needs to explain this. The US still produces goods and services that have trillions in value. That value doesn't go away even if the dollar collapses. Why would a company's shares become worthless if they still make something that people want to buy?

Oct. 13, 2012 at 10pm. (Yanno, since ya wanted specifics and all.)

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"Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own." Jesus of Nazareth

Ok you have funds which are simply a large aggregate collection of many peoples investments in a spectrum of companies. Your money is proportionally invested in these companies. Lets say you have a moderate risk fund so you have a wide spectrum of investments a small percentage are very low risk and a small percentage are very high.

In the event the dollar does collapse people will see their buying power plummet (as dollars buy less), this causes a buying panic of hard assets. In order to buy hard assets people sell paper assets (stocks). The sell off in stocks causes the stocks to devalue as the buyers (if any) get to pick the lowest bid which drives bids downward. The causes a panic sell off. You see the value of your investment plummet. The companies themselves suddenly seeing their stock prices dip begin to retract - hiring freezes, layoffs -in order to protect their capital. Every other company does the same (we saw all of this in 2008,2009). Imagine it happening much faster and the pace leave people no place to call the bottom. So we see companies going into hibernate mode - trying to cancel contracts if they require an outlay of money, ceasing building and expansion operations and the like. Imagine investing in Intel when no one is buying their products. Imagine investing in GM when no one is buying cars, Coke when no one is spending money on soda or heading out to McDonalds because its on the way. The falling stocks cripple the investment firms themselves as they lose reputation and clients. The stock prices of investment firms plummet.

Precious metals skyrocket so high end batteries and anything involving silver platinum or palladium in the manufacturing process comes under a crunch. Increasing costs of goods or inability to manufacture them causes a stall in business and a stall in the business that require those goods. Future markets are crazy volatile as people try to get required goods.

Oil prices tank as production halts and transportation slows because goods aren't flowing. Major refineries show layoffs as demand slows, one good thing is gas prices drop at the pump (for now).

These hiring freezes,layoffs, and business that go under because their supply fell out from under them add individuals to public services costs while reducing available tax income. Already bankrupt states are forced to break contracts, lay off workers, or close offices. Unions picket and protest and attempt to play hard ball but they find not only did no one bring the ball - the field has gone back to woodland. Unions spend their last amount of money trying to secure their income - in some states they succeed and taxation is increased - this adds to more businesses failing and more mortgages failing.

So yes, your stocks will lose value because they represent partial ownership of sick or dying businesses in a market where no one is buying because they want to get real assets.

If I owned all of IBM but no one was buying the stock or the products and services - how much would what I own be worth?

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"...but there exists also in the human heart a depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak to attempt to lower the powerful to their own level and reduces men to prefer equality in slavery to inequality with freedom." - De Tocqueville

The short answer is the end of this "that people want to buy?".

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"...but there exists also in the human heart a depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak to attempt to lower the powerful to their own level and reduces men to prefer equality in slavery to inequality with freedom." - De Tocqueville

Actually, Lex, since you're trying to lump me in with Elmo and making claims you don't understand; I feel you should probably stop talking ****. That said, dollar continued to decline in terms of real purchasing power and actual economic value throughout 2010. And, should one correct the DJI and S&P 500 for real inflation, you find that neither gained any demonstrable value through 2010. But, you know, you're trying to say I'm wrong when you don't what you're discussing. It's prudent to note that food, non-gasoline energy, and clothing continue to increase in price faster than wages; that the U.S. Work Force has shrunk by 19% since Obama took office; and that unemployment numbers including the underemployed, marginally attached, and economically discouraged is somewhere between 18% and 22%.

But, heh, you keep thinking your day to day life hasn't changed. I'll just point out that the average cost of a McDonald's combo has risen 27% in the last 18 months. Overall food costs continue to rise rather dramatically and production of fresh foods is down pretty significantly. As for the general investing bubble, I was pretty much dead on the money, considering November 2009 started a 5 month slide in average stock prices and shares in circulation. But, hey, you know, predicting irrational markets isn't exactly anything any one does well.

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This statement, in a vacuum, might be true. However...


How do they go about making any of those things? How will they buy their raw goods? How will they pay their employees? How will their prospective customers be able to buy their products? I don't think you've stopped to consider how these companies are supposed to continue to function in the presence of a complete currency collapse.

Moreover, we're really talking about stock prices here, not actual corporate value. So on top of all that, the simple answer is that the U.S. stock exchanges operates on the dollar system. You can't just sell (or buy) a share of FooCorp stock for 30 Euros. Sure, it might seem like that now but that's only because there's a whole chain of brokered transactions that you never see as the "end user". Somewhere down the line, a USD transaction has to take place. And when that step breaks down, well...

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Sail forth! steer for the deep waters only!
Reckless, O soul, exploring, I with thee, and thou with me;
For we are bound where mariner has not yet dared to go,
And we will risk the ship, ourselves and all.

Exactly. At the end of the day, a thing's value is only what someone else will exchange for it.

When economies regress towards agrarian, the luxury of investment ceases to exist as there is no room for trivial service exchange.

Additionally, this climate leads to conditions where there is no viable means of exchange in the first place. The government and system will move immediatly to protect itself, by making exchanges not made in its prefered currency illegal as part of its declaration of martial law. All mediums of exchange will either be without real value, or criminal to own or trade.

So explain to me again how the market will perform well?

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Ezekiel 23:19-20