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Rynar
PostPosted: Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:15 pm 
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/42209447

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US Approaching Insolvency, Fix To Be 'Painful': Fisher
Published: Tuesday, 22 Mar 2011 | 3:22 PM ET

The United States is on a fiscal path towards insolvency and policymakers are at a "tipping point," a Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday.

"If we continue down on the path on which the fiscal authorities put us, we will become insolvent, the question is when," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said in a question and answer session after delivering a speech at the University of Frankfurt. "The short-term negotiations are very important, I look at this as a tipping point."

But he added he was confident in the Americans' ability to take the right decisions and said the country would avoid insolvency.

"I think we are at the beginning of the process and it's going to be very painful," he added.

Fisher earlier said the US economic recovery is gathering momentum, adding that he personally was extremely vigilant on inflation pressures.

"We are all mindful of this phenomenon. Speaking personally, I am concerned and I am going to be extremely vigilant on that front," Fisher said in an interview with CNBC.

Fisher added that the U.S. Federal Reserve had ways to tighten its monetary policy other than interest rates, including by selling Treasurys, changing reserves levels and using time deposits.

He added that he does not support the Fed embarking on an additional round of quantitative easing.

"Barring some extraordinary circumstance I cannot forsee...I would vote against a QE3," Fisher told CNBC. "I don't think it's necessary. Again, we have a self-sustaining recovery."

--Annette Weisbach contributed to this story.

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Wwen
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 22, 2011 8:08 pm 
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Recovering to the tipping point? Are we failing upward?

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darksiege
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:59 am 
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This is why we are stockpiling dry rations, dry goods, etc.

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Darksiege
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Lex Luthor
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:03 am 
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darksiege wrote:
This is why we are stockpiling dry rations, dry goods, etc.


Really? Only reason you'd need that is for an enormous natural disaster, not an economic situation. If there was any dire need for food you can bet the whole country would work really hard to alleviate these issues.
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Elmarnieh
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 6:07 am 
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Lex Luthor wrote:
darksiege wrote:
This is why we are stockpiling dry rations, dry goods, etc.


Really? Only reason you'd need that is for an enormous natural disaster, not an economic situation. If there was any dire need for food you can bet the whole country would work really hard to alleviate these issues.



How many days of sub caloric intake can you "work really hard"? How do you do that without existing seed? How long after planting is the fastest growing crop going to be edible - going to be sustainably edible?

How fast after food prices rise and riots start are food shipments into the area going to stop since they will be looted?

Lets say you aren't expecting a full collapse but a slow slide. That means food prices will rise and dry goods store for years so why not stockpile now while goods are relatively cheap and available?

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Taskiss
PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 6:52 am 
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Rynar wrote:
Quote:
US Approaching Insolvency, Fix To Be 'Painful': Fisher
Published: Tuesday, 22 Mar 2011 | 3:22 PM ET

The United States is on a fiscal path towards insolvency and policymakers are at a "tipping point," a Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday.

"If we continue down on the path on which the fiscal authorities put us, we will become insolvent, the question is when," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said in a question and answer session after delivering a speech at the University of Frankfurt. "The short-term negotiations are very important, I look at this as a tipping point."

But he added he was confident in the Americans' ability to take the right decisions and said the country would avoid insolvency.
People get near a microphone and they can't help themselves.

"the sky is falling, it's just a matter of when. But I'm sure we won't let the sky really fall"

Wwen wrote:
Recovering to the tipping point? Are we failing upward?


Oh my. Falling upward... the sky won't fall, we're going to do a "bug on the windshield" on it!

We're doomed. I suggest kool-aid.

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Arathain Kelvar
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:35 am 
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Economists are to recessions what geologists are to earthquakes.

/wet pants
"OMG it's the big one! We haven't seen anything like this in most of a century! This is fantas- I mean, this is a terrible tragedy."
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Khross
PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:45 am 
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If we were in a recession, they might be right. We're not. The economic situation is indeed dire and is the consequence of decades of bad social, economic, and political policy. Where things land when it all shakes out, that's nearly impossible to predict, but it's not going to be pretty.

Two of the three largest economies in the world are run by governments leveraged at 200% of GDP or more (Japan and the United States). Japan just took another serious blow (the Earthquake/Tsunami) in face of 20 years of problematic economic situations. Their recession/localized depression from the early 1990s still hasn't worked itself out. Some of their markets (housing) haven't seen gains since 1992 or 1993, despite rising demand. The United States, and much of the Western World, continues to deal with the fallout of all sorts of complex financials and financial "hoodoo" (used solely because most of the trade vehicles are just beyond complex). The U.S. is facing its third consecutive "jobless recovery" according to the talking heads. And we're still measuring employment against the 1997 peak. The problem here is we continue to incorrectly state the employment situation, inflation, and GDP in the United States.

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Last edited by Khross on Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

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FarSky
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:50 am 
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Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Economists are to recessions what geologists are to earthquakes.

/wet pants
"OMG it's the big one! We haven't seen anything like this in most of a century! This is fantas- I mean, this is a terrible tragedy."

Or meteorologists are to hurricane season?
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Screeling
 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:51 am 
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FarSky wrote:
Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Economists are to recessions what geologists are to earthquakes.

/wet pants
"OMG it's the big one! We haven't seen anything like this in most of a century! This is fantas- I mean, this is a terrible tragedy."

Or meteorologists are to hurricane season?

Yet there were people predicting the country's current predicament when things were fine. When these same people that were right say it will get worse, people ignore it.

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RangerDave
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:31 am 
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Screeling wrote:
Yet there were people predicting the country's current predicament when things were fine. When these same people that were right say it will get worse, people ignore it.

The problem is, they've been predicting it for decades. Stopped clock and all that. I just keep picturing an elderly man with one of those "The end is nigh!" sandwich boards shouting, "See?! I was right! I was right!" when an asteroid hits in 2050.
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Screeling
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:11 pm 
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Yeah, but there's always loony people out there. What about the people that were right this time? You're saying every one of those guys just got lucky and something finally stuck?

Seriously, do you believe it even possible for financial collapse to happen? If so, how would you see it playing out and what indicators would we see?

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Arathain Kelvar
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:23 pm 
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Screeling wrote:
Yeah, but there's always loony people out there. What about the people that were right this time? You're saying every one of those guys just got lucky and something finally stuck?

Seriously, do you believe it even possible for financial collapse to happen? If so, how would you see it playing out and what indicators would we see?


Problem with this is nobody's ever 100% right or 100% wrong on these things.

If, for example, an economic collapse happens, but people aren't dying in the street being nibbled by rats, then both sides are at least partially correct.

More likely, it will be somewhere between a financial collapse and the current situation, and everyone will have claim to some level of "correctness".

It's not that black and white.
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Screeling
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:15 pm 
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You completely avoided my last question. Should I assume you don't believe economic collapse possible?

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RangerDave
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:17 pm 
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Screeling wrote:
Yeah, but there's always loony people out there. What about the people that were right this time? You're saying every one of those guys just got lucky and something finally stuck?

No, I'm just saying (a) it's hard to tell ahead of time who's right and who's a loon, and (b) even in hindsight, it's hard to tell who was right because they were wise and who was right because they got lucky. As a result, I tend to be skeptical about extreme predictions generally.

Screeling wrote:
Seriously, do you believe it even possible for financial collapse to happen?

I do, but in keeping with my skepticism about extreme predictions, I think it would look more like the Great Depression than Road Warrior.
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Arathain Kelvar
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 1:48 pm 
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Screeling wrote:
You completely avoided my last question. Should I assume you don't believe economic collapse possible?


Did not mean to dodge. It's certainly possible. In fact, I'd consider a "double dip" likely.

I think a "collapse" is unlikely. I think Elmo's version of a collapse, and the specific results of this, are borderline nonsense. I say borderline, because anything's possible.
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Taskiss
PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:18 pm 
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Attachment:
GDP.png
GDP.png [ 19.71 KiB | Viewed 1238 times ]

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Lex Luthor
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:35 pm 
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There's no point in posting that Taskiss, people will use pseudo-logic to say why it isn't true.
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Arathain Kelvar
PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:43 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
Attachment:
GDP.png


LMAO, man. With your knowledge of some of the folks on this board, and how they will respond, posting that could almost be considered trolling.
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Khross
PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:48 pm 
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Ok, here's a chart that says GDP was down in 2010 by roughly 2.5%.

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Taskiss
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:51 pm 
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That's a long way from a collapse.

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Khross
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:57 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
That's a long way from a collapse.
That assumes I agree with Elmo. I'm fairly certain I've been rather consistent in my observations on this matter.

1. The United States is in a depression and has been since at least 2007.

2. The United States is in an economic situation far worse than the government will admit.

3. The United States is in a precarious situation with regard to international currency reserves.

4. The United States is over-leveraged.

5. The U.S. Government lies about GDP, Inflation, and Unemployment.

Now, it really doesn't matter to me that most of you trust our government on these matters, but it does annoy me when you consistently think I agree with Elmo on outcomes.

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Lex Luthor
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 3:03 pm 
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I don't think -2% is a depression. For example if you have a farm that typically produces 100 of whatever product per day, and then one day it only produces 98 (oh no!), I wouldn't say it's collapsing.
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Khross
PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 3:10 pm 
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Lex Luthor:

-2% GDP would bother me, except for the fact that there's all sorts of asymmetrical pressure on U.S. production and consumption at the moment. That said, the biggest difference between BLS.gov numbers and Shadowstats.com is whether or not you consider immobile inventory an asset or liability. Goods produced that cannot currently be sold are held on the books as assets. Whether or not the profit gains are realized, those items are valued well above their production costs when it comes to government growth numbers.

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Corolinth wrote:
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Taskiss
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2011 3:15 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Taskiss wrote:
That's a long way from a collapse.
That assumes I agree with Elmo.

No, it's an observation of what you posted in context with the focus of this thread.

I know the difference between someone frowning and shaking their head worriedly when faced with the current economic situation, and someone running around like a chicken with it's head cut off.

It's in the eyes. Definitely in the eyes.

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