Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Talya wrote:
Rorinthas wrote:
That's why we have a very careful and selective death penalty.
And yet at least 1/10 people executed probably didn't do it. (More like 2 to 3 out of 10.)
Yeah, I don't buy that. 20-30% is much too high I would think. For capital cases.
I think I'm in agreement on this. 10%, maybe 15% at the outside. But potentially better than 10%, too.
Now, here's a thought.
Wikipedia lists 1,245 executions in the U.S. since 1976, with an additional 3,252 currently on death row. We'll assume that we suddenly crack down on appeals, and execute all the remaining death row inmates. That's a total of 4,497 executed people since 1976. Wiki reports the
national murder rate over the last decade as 5.5 per 100,000 population. Given a population of 308 million (okay, that's probably high because it's the most recent census, but whatever, this is just back of the envelope stuff), that equates to just shy of 17,000 murders a year. Since our stats are for executions since '76, that's 25 years, for 423,500 murders in the time we've dished out 4,497 death sentences (or unresolved appeals that might still yield a death sentence that is carried out). Now, we'll take Taly's worst case estimate, and assume that 30% of them are innocent. That's roughly 1,500 innocent people we've killed, or might yet kill in the name of justice. So, if, over the last 25 years, 425,000 people were going to murder somebody, but only 1,500 of them had second thoughts due to a deterrent effect to capital punishment, we've broken even on "innocent lives capital punishment has taken vs. saved." 1,500 out of 425,000 isn't a big percentage. If around 1 in 300 murderers reconsider their actions, then the deterrent has netted lives saved, even by Taly's worst expectations of our justice system.
And that's not even trying to take into account other capital crimes. That's just straight murder, where the accounting is easy to deal with without making judgement calls about how many aborted kidnappings is worth an innocent life, etc.