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 Post subject: Not Enough Money
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 6:20 pm 
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Conservative commentator arguing for looser monetary policy. Excerpts posted without comment as food for thought, but I recommend reading the whole thing, since it's too long to fully quote, and there's more to it than the highlights below.

Almost all economists today agree that monetary policy during the Depression, especially its early stages, was disastrously tight, indeed that this contractionary policy is the principal reason the Depression became Great....More important — and more disturbing — is that it is not at all clear that we have learned from the mistakes of the 1930s. Those central bankers believed that money was easy because interest rates were low and the monetary base (the supply of money under the Fed’s control) had expanded. They worried that further easing would reduce confidence in the dollar. British economist R. G. Hawtrey, writing in the late 1930s, described the climate of opinion in his country at the start of the decade: “Fantastic fears of inflation were expressed. That was to cry ‘Fire! Fire!’ in Noah’s Flood.” The economy was actually deflating, not inflating. Under the influence of the “real-bills doctrine,” some central bankers believed that the money supply should respond only to traders’ need for credit. Anything else would only fuel speculative excess.

Today’s inflation hawks employ the same reasoning that those firefighters did. And they are not wholly wrong. Easier money can lead to a destabilizing run on the currency. Inflation can be associated with low real interest rates and an expanded monetary base. But not always: Not in the 1930s, and almost certainly not today, either. The late Milton Friedman, perhaps the most famous inflation hawk of his generation, spotted the fallacy in his analysis of 1990s Japan: Low interest rates can also be a symptom of an excessively tight monetary policy that has choked off opportunities for growth.

...That’s what happened during the recent crisis....{M}uch of what we think we know about the recession of 2007–09 is wrong. Not only has money not been loose since the crisis began, but tight money is the fundamental reason the recession was so severe and the recovery has been so halting....An alternative theory of the crisis goes something like this: While a recession may have been inevitable, it was the Fed’s passive tightening that made it a disaster. The recession began in late 2007, although many observers knew it only after the fact. The Fed passively tightened mildly in mid-2008. In the fall of 2008, the financial crisis caused velocity (and the money multiplier) to drop dramatically — in part, perhaps, because political and financial leaders were scaring everyone. The Fed did not act aggressively enough to accommodate the increased demand for money balances, and what had been a mild recession became a severe one.

...In warning about inflation, conservatives are crying “fire” in, if not Noah’s flood, at least a torrential rain. It may be that they are stuck not so much in the 1930s as in the 1970s — the time when conservatism forged much of its current outlook on economics, and a time when monetary restraint was badly needed. Conservatives also tend to think that loosening monetary policy is a kind of intervention in free markets, and therefore to be suspicious of it. But this is an error. Professor Hendrickson points out that in a system of free banking, with competitive note issue rather than a central bank, the desire for profit and the need for solvency would lead to the supply of banknotes roughly equaling the demand. In a fiat-money regime such as the one under which we, for better or worse, live, a central bank’s withholding of a sufficient supply of money is just as much of an intervention in the economy as its overproduction of it.

...We are not likely to see a second Great Depression. But it would be tragic if conservatives, moved by hostility to the Fed, led it to repeat, even on a smaller scale, the worst mistakes in its history.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 8:24 pm 
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He must be getting paid by one of the Fed banks someplace.

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 Post subject: Re: Not Enough Money
PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 9:04 pm 
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Just because he writes for the Nation Review (a neo-conservative rag that's strayed from Buckley's vision), one should never consider Ponnuru a conservative economist.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 7:02 am 
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All this proves is that both sides have idiots. Which I hope everyone already knew...

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 7:14 am 
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I listen to peoples words to determine if they are conservative, liberal or any shade in between. If you don't then retardation like this somehow becomes "conservative", people like Obama self label "moderate" and Pelosi gets to label anyone that differs as "extremeist". This is why we need to agree on definitions when discussion starts or there is no common point of refrence.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 8:09 am 
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Khross has said it before; I will say it again: read this book:

America's Great Drepression (PDF)

Read it. Read it, and if you don't agree with it, explain to the rest of us how the theory is incorrect. We've all gotten the memo that the Austrian explanation is unpopular -- show me how it is wrong.

The neo-keynesian interpretation of the Great Depression is potent piece of our modern economic mythology.

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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 8:26 am 
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Stathol wrote:
Khross has said it before; I will say it again: read this book:

America's Great Drepression

Read it. Read it, and if you don't agree with it, explain to the rest of us how the theory is incorrect. We've all gotten the memo that the Austrian explanation is unpopular -- show me how it is wrong.

But it's so hard to follow a link and click "add to cart."

Also, of course Austrian economics are unpopular. They tell you not to buy more than you can afford.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 8:27 am 
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But...that would involve paying. For a book.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 8:32 am 
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Actually I believe the mises.com has an online version available for free.

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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:13 am 
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Kaffis Mark V wrote:
But it's so hard to follow a link and click "add to cart."

Also, of course Austrian economics are unpopular. They tell you not to buy more than you can afford.


It's not that, Austrian economics are unpopular because they tell you you have to save 25% of all the money you make, at a minimum, so you can survive the severe downturns that result from following them (even if the average performance is greater) without any government intervention or assistance. Austrian economics says the government shouldn't pursure inflationary policies even during a depression, which means if you go into one with few savings or, god forbid, debt, you are ****. Remember the Long Depression predates the federal reserve and you'd have to get through such downturns without any help from the government.


Last edited by Xequecal on Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:15 am 
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Xequecal wrote:
Kaffis Mark V wrote:
But it's so hard to follow a link and click "add to cart."

Also, of course Austrian economics are unpopular. They tell you not to buy more than you can afford.
It's not that, Austrian economics are unpopular because they tell you you have to save 25% of all the money you make, at a minimum, so you can survive the severe downturns that result from following them (even if the average performance is greater) without any government intervention or assistance. Remember the Long Depression predates the federal reserve and you'd have to get through such downturns without any help from the government.
Well, considering that neo-Keynesians (who haven't even really read Keynes) don't understand the Long Depression, you might want to read a book on that subject as well. It was not nearly as economically unhappy as certain political ideologies make it out to be.

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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:23 am 
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Rynar wrote:
Actually I believe the mises.com has an online version available for free.

Well, so they do. I did not know that. Updated my previous post. There are really no excuses, now; if nothing else, just read the first chapter. That's 35 pages of medium type. The 2nd chapter (6 pages) is also worth reading for the Keynesians amongst us. Although we've really moved on to neo keynesianism for the most part, it's still pretty applicable to most of the talking heads.

Edit: Blargh. Misread the TOC. Pagecounts fixed.

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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:39 am 
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So, in sum:

Elmarnieh wrote:
Ad hominem

Khross wrote:
Ad hominem and No True Scot

Hopwin wrote:
Ad hominem

Hannibal wrote:
No True Scot

Stathol wrote:
Go read a book

Kaffis wrote:
Snark

Talya wrote:
Joke

Rynar wrote:
Get the book for free

Khross wrote:
Go read another book too

:P


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 Post subject: Re: Not Enough Money
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:43 am 
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RangerDave:

There's neither an ad hominem nor a no true scotsman fallacy in my post. Ponnuru isn't a conservative economist. He's a neo-Keynesian that leans towards the pro-Monetarist side of mainstream heterodox economics; or, if that's a little obscure, he prefers Chicago and Wharton to post-Mega Trends Harvard. In fact, if memory serves, Ponnuru has a B.A. in Journalism from Princeton ...

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Last edited by Khross on Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:44 am 
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Welcome to the Glade.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:45 am 
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Aizle wrote:
Welcome to the Glade.
Maybe you should know who we're talking about before you start trying to troll.

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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:50 am 
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RangerDave wrote:
Talya wrote:
Joke

:P


You thought that was a joke?

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 Post subject: Re: Not Enough Money
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:51 am 
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Khross wrote:
There's neither an ad hominem nor a no true scotsman fallacy in my post. Ponnuru isn't a conservative economist. He's a neo-Keynesian that leans towards the pro-Monetarist side of mainstream heterodox economics; or, if that's a little obscure, he prefers Chicago and Wharton to post-Mega Trends Harvard. In fact, if memory serves, Ponnuru has a B.A. in Journalism from Princeton ...

Yeah, I was mostly going for a tone of good-natured banter there. It just struck me as funny that there were a series of posts criticizing or at least undermining the article and/or author without actually engaging the ideas presented. I posted the article thinking, "Well here's a guy from the right side of the spectrum saying stuff that you usually hear from the left side of the spectrum. I wonder how that will affect the way the Glade responds to his points." And the response I got was, "Pfft! He's an idiot! He's not really a conservative! Here's a book that shows how everyone else is wrong!" Heh. Like I said, it just struck me as funny.

Also just to clarify - I called him a conservative commentator, not a conservative economist.


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 Post subject: Re: Not Enough Money
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:58 am 
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RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
There's neither an ad hominem nor a no true scotsman fallacy in my post. Ponnuru isn't a conservative economist. He's a neo-Keynesian that leans towards the pro-Monetarist side of mainstream heterodox economics; or, if that's a little obscure, he prefers Chicago and Wharton to post-Mega Trends Harvard. In fact, if memory serves, Ponnuru has a B.A. in Journalism from Princeton ...

Yeah, I was mostly going for a tone of good-natured banter there. It just struck me as funny that there were a series of posts criticizing or at least undermining the article and/or author without actually engaging the ideas presented. I posted the article thinking, "Well here's a guy from the right side of the spectrum saying stuff that you usually hear from the left side of the spectrum. I wonder how that will affect the way the Glade responds to his points." And the response I got was, "Pfft! He's an idiot! He's not really a conservative! Here's a book that shows how everyone else is wrong!" Heh. Like I said, it just struck me as funny.

Also just to clarify - I called him a conservative commentator, not a conservative economist.

I read the article and thought it was bullshit, hence why I said there are retards on both side.

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 Post subject: Re: Not Enough Money
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:00 am 
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Ponnuru is repeating what's popular, not what's correct; and, that's fine, but once you realize his commentary is an appeal to popularity, one should go looking at sources which dispute it. I've recommended America's Great Depression several times. It should be required reading.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:34 am 
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Talya wrote:
But...that would involve paying. For a book.


Put it on your credit card. :P

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:39 am 
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In order for me to decide to pay for a book, the book must typically be under $7, and be a hardcover that will look very good in my library. A few rare exceptions will apply.

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 Post subject: Re: Not Enough Money
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:52 am 
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Khross wrote:
Ponnuru is repeating what's popular, not what's correct; and, that's fine, but once you realize his commentary is an appeal to popularity, one should go looking at sources which dispute it. I've recommended America's Great Depression several times. It should be required reading.
The Great Depression was caused by corporate greed, and ended by FDR's wonderful welfare policies. Heil Roosevelt.

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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 11:43 am 
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Stathol wrote:
Khross has said it before; I will say it again: read this book:

America's Great Drepression (PDF)

Read it. Read it, and if you don't agree with it, explain to the rest of us how the theory is incorrect. We've all gotten the memo that the Austrian explanation is unpopular -- show me how it is wrong.

The neo-keynesian interpretation of the Great Depression is potent piece of our modern economic mythology.


Yeah, eventually. The trouble is, I would need to devote time (which I don't have) to reading this AND a book containing the opposing viewpoint.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 5:33 pm 
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:psyduck: It's like 200ish pages. I could probably read that in a few hours if I just sat down on concentrated on only that. You could watch a movie or two in that time.

I read on the toilet too.

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