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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 11:47 am 
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Khross wrote:
15% of U.S. mortgages are currently in foreclosure.

27% of U.S. mortgages have negative equity.

Housing prices have reached 40 year lows when adjusted to 1958 dollars.

Housing prices continue to decline. Mainstream economists have started throwing around the "D-word" with regard to the house market, although it's following a fairly predictable pattern and isn't going to normalize any time soon.

By the end of the year, some of the outlying estimates have 60% of mortgages reaching the negative equity point. I'm more inclined to put that number in the 40% range, because it's going to take at least a decade for the housing market to actually bottom out, if it does.

There's a little over 600,000 acres of unfinished or abandoned residential development according to some conservative estimates; some of these developments have been idle since the Stagflation Recession of the 1970s.

Employment gains are nominal, most likely even fabricated because the current Department of Labor shifts goalposts faster than they put out reports. The safe estimate on discouraged workers (that is people who have stopped looking for work or who will never be employable again) is 16-18 million Americas between 18 and 50.

Real inflation is by all accounts in the double digits as food prices and energy costs continue to rise almost solely because of government imposed shifts in the pricing curves. In fact, the so-called volatile markets have been pushed so far away from their natural supply/demand relationships that it probably doesn't even make sense to study them anymore: they are not natural markets.


All of this should be easily referenced.

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And, yet, we have people screaming up and down that people are Doom Sayers and Naysayers ...


Regardless of where "reality" actually falls between "all is hunky dory" and "all is lost", there will be tons of people on either side of the line. There will always be folks overly pessimistic, and there will always be folks overly optimisitic.

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But, I'll just repeat what I've been saying for the last six months.

1. The United States government has a vested interest in lying to you about the economy.

2. Agents of the United States government have a vested interest in lying to you about the economy.


They are way too incompetent to pull off a grand conspiracy about this.

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3. The market manipulations, intrusions, and other financial fiascoes of the U.S. Government during the last part of the Bush Administration and all of the Obama Administration would be criminal if performed by any private citizen.


So would a great many things performed legitimately by the government. Printing money, for example. That does not necessarily mean it is bad for the economy.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 11:48 am 
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Hopwin wrote:
Khross, what effect, if any, do you think it would have if a massive protest against the Fed and our monetary policy were to take place by having everyone burn $1? It would be symbolic of course and you'd never get everyone to do it but if the money pool shrank by ~$350M would policymakers respond?


I think there is only something like 90 billion in actual, printed, circulating dollars. I believe most of that is overseas.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 12:42 pm 
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You know, I've said this before, but I'll say it again ...

Every time I write a monolithic post with adequate sourcing, none of you read the links or go through the citations. In fact, said posts generally some two word quip from a press secretary or the Associated Press that says the very thing I spent 10,000 words, 30 citations, and a whole lot of experience disproving while you guys gloat or say, "Well, that can't be right because some suit said so."

Or, to quote Captain Funk of the Obvious Awesome Stars ...
Quote:
Source? Why? You don't read them anyway.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:13 pm 
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If we're in a depression then why are the stocks so high?
Spoiler:
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Great Depression:

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:15 pm 
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Because the DJI, S&P 500, and NDI haven't been adjusted for inflation, currency declines, or actual loss of investments since the early 90s? That said, high stock prices, index averages, etc., aren't indicators in any way you've been lead to believe. There are any number of reason for an inflated paper market ...

Sort of like the inflated paper market that caused the recent financial crisis.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:16 pm 
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Doesn't the crash of real estate prices balance out the rising food/energy prices to result in the low levels of inflation that are reported?


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:19 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
Doesn't the crash of real estate prices balance out the rising food/energy prices to result in the low levels of inflation that are reported?
Not really, because housing prices were asymmetrical in the first place: the value of the item was not the actual economic cost of the item over the duration of a loan, for instance.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:21 pm 
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It doesn't make sense to me that there's a secret depression and every mainstream number is a massive conspiracy to hide the depression. I looked at some numbers and it looks slightly bad, but nothing comparable to the Great Depression.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:32 pm 
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Lex Luthor wrote:
It doesn't make sense to me that there's a secret depression and every mainstream number is a massive conspiracy to hide the depression. I looked at some numbers and it looks slightly bad, but nothing comparable to the Great Depression.
Have you been paying attention to the European Union and the Euro? Are you evaluating debt to GDP ratios, employment ratios, wage indices, production rates, etc? Or, are you simply looking at the mainstream analysis of the Great Depression and listening to the talking heads in American media and going ...

It's not that bad?

The fact that people keep thinking it takes a conspiracy to lie to the public demonstrates a gross misunderstanding of government and national policy, particularly with regard to economics.

The government lies to you.
The government has a vested interest in lying to you.
The government wants to stay in power.

We can look at the 2010 American general election and see that the economy is potent stuff. And, yet, despite all the promises made to get elected or stay elected, policy has not changed; the situation has not changed; and the direction of action has not changed.

Never mind that the housing market is worse than it was during the 30s right? Never mind that there are new complications in the housing market no one dares speak of ... (like how the average house in the Collinwood burg of Cleveland is now worth less than the asking price in 1967 even if its in pristine condition).

The government lying to the people is not a conspiracy: it's a necessary fact of operation.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:33 pm 
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Khross wrote:
You know, I've said this before, but I'll say it again ...

Every time I write a monolithic post with adequate sourcing, none of you read the links or go through the citations. In fact, said posts generally some two word quip from a press secretary or the Associated Press that says the very thing I spent 10,000 words, 30 citations, and a whole lot of experience disproving while you guys gloat or say, "Well, that can't be right because some suit said so."

Or, to quote Captain Funk of the Obvious Awesome Stars ...
Quote:
Source? Why? You don't read them anyway.


If you're going to blame your laziness on other posters, you should at least provide justification. If "every time" you write a referenced post, people ignore it, you should be able to link some examples.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 2:27 pm 
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Arathain Kelvar wrote:
If you're going to blame your laziness on other posters, you should at least provide justification. If "every time" you write a referenced post, people ignore it, you should be able to link some examples.
http://www.gladerebooted.org/viewtopic.php?p=75959#p75959

And just in case you miss the important part ...

Click HERE

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Last edited by Khross on Thu Apr 21, 2011 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 2:29 pm 
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Heh - I remember that post. It took me 3 sittings to read through and digest.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:12 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Every time I write a monolithic post with adequate sourcing, none of you read the links or go through the citations. In fact, said posts generally some two word quip from a press secretary or the Associated Press that says the very thing I spent 10,000 words, 30 citations, and a whole lot of experience disproving while you guys gloat or say, "Well, that can't be right because some suit said so."

Might I suggest a middle ground between "trust me" and TL;DR?


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:20 pm 
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You can suggest it. What do you think the odds are it will work?

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:20 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Arathain Kelvar wrote:
If you're going to blame your laziness on other posters, you should at least provide justification. If "every time" you write a referenced post, people ignore it, you should be able to link some examples.
http://www.gladerebooted.org/viewtopic.php?p=75959#p75959

And just in case you miss the important part ...

Click HERE


LMAO! Dude, you seriously need to lighten up.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:21 pm 
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Khross wrote:
<snip of a bunch of stuff I agree with>

But, I'll just repeat what I've been saying for the last six months.

1. The United States government has a vested interest in lying to you about the economy.

2. Agents of the United States government have a vested interest in lying to you about the economy.

3. The market manipulations, intrusions, and other financial fiascoes of the U.S. Government during the last part of the Bush Administration and all of the Obama Administration would be criminal if performed by any private citizen.

4. We're in a depression, and it's not getting better any time soon.

And I agree with most of this too...

HOWEVER...

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And, yet, we have people screaming up and down that people are Doom Sayers and Naysayers ...
You're not screaming doom and gloom, and I find it kinda interesting that you see yourself on that side of the fence. Nobody claimed everything was rosy, but a collapse of the system isn't being writ large anywhere except in the imaginations of a few.

Your characterization is accurate, as far as it goes, but due to lumping the entire US housing market together when in reality some places are just fine and others are incredibly depressed.... jobs for certain sectors being depressed while other sectors are actually booming... you're painting the entire US with one brush. Sorta like grading the class by averaging all the students grades. It ignores the high achievers and burdens everyone with the results of the underachievers. It's not a fair method of evaluation.

The US has problems, and it's economy is not going to win a beauty contest...but in this day and age, it's still one of the best of the bunch. We're in a good position in that the folks that own our debt need us more than we need them. "Too big to fail" seems to be the order of the day, and while I personally don't believe that, enough do and that insulates the US from the more dire of some folks predictions. If Congress gets off it's *** and trims spending by 40% or more, we'd be golden. Less than that... well, less golden. I do believe that there will be a reckoning though.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 7:24 am 
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Lex Luthor wrote:
It doesn't make sense to me that there's a secret depression and every mainstream number is a massive conspiracy to hide the depression. I looked at some numbers and it looks slightly bad, but nothing comparable to the Great Depression.


Its not a secret- its data. I look at the unemployment numbers and realize the manipulation. The drop under 9% was due to the gov deeming that X amount of jobs were just not available anymore so those jobs were taken out of the pool. So the recalculation made the unemployment rate drop. Its going to happen again closer to election time as Obama tries to make the case that his policies are working.

And that's just one of the things.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:36 am 
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Wikipedia:

Image

So you're saying this is a lie? I'm surprised you're in the conspiracy theory crowd.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:38 am 
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It's not a conspiracy theory to call such things a lie, Lex.

How many people are employed in the United States?

What's the total population between 18 and 63?

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:44 am 
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Khross wrote:
It's not a conspiracy theory to call such things a lie, Lex.


Calling mainstream data a lie is a conspiracy theory.

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How many people are employed in the United States?

What's the total population between 18 and 63?


Wikipedia has a graph for this too:


US Labor Participation Rate 1948-2011
Participation rate is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort (national population of the same age range).


Image

It looks like we went from 67% at the high to 64%. Not really a depression.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:57 am 
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Except those graphs don't answer the questions I asked, Lex.

Do you know how they calculate participation rate? Do you know how the Bureau of Labor Statistics generates that data?

You keep trying to bait people with loaded language, but you don't even know what data we're discussing, because you've assumed the mainstream data is correct and a priori acceptable.

So, why don't you answer my questions first ...

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:05 am 
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HUGE graph behind spoiler showing the US employment to population ratio:
Quote:
Employment consists of all persons who, during the reference week (the calendar week including the twelfth day of the month), (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees, worked in their own business or profession or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of the family, or (b) were not working but had jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent because of vacation, illness, bad weather, childcare problems, maternity or paternity leave, labor-management dispute, job training, or other family or personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off or were seeking other jobs.

The civilian noninstitutional population consists of persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities and homes for the aged) and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

Spoiler:
Image


We're about back to the rates as they were in the 80's. It's been worse, but it looks like it'll pass up the worst I've ever seen here in not to long.

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Last edited by Taskiss on Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:09 am 
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The graph's a little more accurate, but it doesn't tell the whole story; which is kind of the problem with participation rate calculations and the non-institutional non-farm workforce calculations in the United States.

Any idea what caused the dramatic rise over the 20 years between 1970 and 1990, Taskiss?

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Last edited by Khross on Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:12 am 
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Khross wrote:
The graph's a little more accurate, but it doesn't tell the whole story; which is kind of the problem with participation rate calculations and the institutional non-farm workforce calculations in the United States.

Any idea what caused the dramatic rise over the 20 years between 1970 and 1990, Taskiss?

It was a service sector job increase due to a shift away from manufacturing, and at the same time there was a huge change in the distribution of income.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:17 am 
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Taskiss wrote:
Khross wrote:
The graph's a little more accurate, but it doesn't tell the whole story; which is kind of the problem with participation rate calculations and the non-institutional non-farm workforce calculations in the United States.

Any idea what caused the dramatic rise over the 20 years between 1970 and 1990, Taskiss?
It was a service sector job increase due to a shift away from manufacturing, and at the same time there was a huge change in the distribution of income.
That's part of it ...

You're missing the most obvious part though.

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