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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:25 am 
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Dunno. Act real awkward?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:33 am 
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I think they should tally those instances and then divide that number by the overall percentage of registered voters who vote in that election. Then you'd have a good estimate on the amount of fraud occurring. If it's a lot then you'll have a pretty solid argument for stricter ID requirements.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:44 am 
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Amanar wrote:
What do they do if that person shows up to vote later?

Get confused, make a stink, and tell the real person that they're wrong.

It's not like they can demand ID to prove it's them, right? Hell, even if the person pulls out their ID to help prove their insistence that they are who they say they are, the poll workers probably wouldn't look out of fear that they're doing something wrong, right?

And even if they do, what happens to the fraudulent person? It's not like there's any record of THEIR identity to go after them.

As for tallying those instances as an indicator of fraud -- you're assuming that the majority of eligible voters will vote. Elections for the past two decades or so have proven that's not the case.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:48 am 
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Kaffis, that's why I said "divide that number by the overall percentage of registered voters who vote in that election." Although that may not be the correct statistical way to estimate the overall occurance of fraud in this instance, but I assure you there is a way. That's what statistics is made for.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:36 am 
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Amanar wrote:
Yeah, it doesn't extend to the entire Republican party... because I was just pointing out one specific example that I thought was especially damning. There's a bunch of other examples in that short article RD posted, and you can easily find shit-tons more online. And once again I don't care if it's Republicans or Democrats doing the intimidation, the point is there is a long history of it, along with many other voter-suppression tactics going all the way back to poll taxes and literacy tests.


I don't particularly care about "shit-tons" of examples online; you can find all kinds of inane, inaccurate, or outright fabricated **** online. Even RDs article is questionable by, in the example you cited, trying to expand the Louisiana example (a state notorious for all kinds of corruption) to the entire nation. Then again, there's the fact that this example is 30 years old is only marginally more relevant than poll taxes or literacy tests in the 1800s.

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I know they aren't watched 24 hours a day. It's not like they're all in some central location where they can be easily locked up and monitored. There are so many thousands of polling places all over the country, you don't think a determined group could infiltrate a single one?[ /quote]

Most polling places are not dedicated polling places; they're things like schools, city halls, and community centers and wouldn't store them anyhow. They'd be stored at a board of elections or something, so on a county by county basis they are stored centrally ,and there's this nifty thing called a burglar alarm. They don't need to be watched 24 hours a day; they aren't nuclear weapons.

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...all that sounds pretty doable to me. A lot more reasonable than a scenario where democrats organize mass voter fraud among thousands of people that's completely undetectable and not a single person involved makes a peep about it. Sounds like conspiracy theory bullshit to me.


You are hilarious. Not only is that not "doable", aalmost any one of those elements, especially those surrounding creating the device, entail nearly insurmountable technical challenges, especially if you want the device to be undetectable. You are claiming its "doable" on nothing more than intuition and because its convenient to this hacker nonsense you seem to want to hang your hat on.

It would be far easier to simply recruit people to vote fraudulently. Most of them don't need to be in on the scheme, they just need to buy into going and voting a 2nd time or even taking money to go vote and some fast talker to get them to do it.

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Also, a lot of you guys are acting like you can just walk up to a polling station and say "Hi, I'm Bob Smith and I'm here to vote" and get handed a ballot. Are there any states that are actually like this? In my experience you must at least have voter registration card to vote. So if you wanted to vote multiple times, you'd have to get the info on other people are register for them to get their cards. And then hope they don't register themselves, in which case they'll probably notice something is up. Sounds like a lot of work to me.


You just go get a bunch of illegals to register. As for voter registration cards, ohio doesn't have them. You just say "I'm bob smith and I'm here to vote.". If bob smith or jose gonzalez or whoever is on there, they get to vote. This is why fraudulent registration is a concern, especially since any attempt to quality control the roles is met with shrieks of outrage. Its very easy to talk about "conspiracy theories" when you just pretend everyone involved has to know the whole story, or pretend technical challenges are "doable" with handwavium.

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I also don't think these ads in the original article should be illegal or anything. I just think it's bullshit that you guys are acting like the purpose of them is to educate people about voter fraud or some bullshit like that instead of discourage the people in those areas from voting.


The purpose is to remind people in those areas that taking that deal to go vote twice, or that its legal to vote (or even just not a big deal) if you're not a citizen, or let yourself get talked into something involving voting more than once is vote fraud. Poor minorities are also the least educated. These are the people that most need the message, because they are most likely to not know or not care.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:43 am 
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The fact of the matter is that individual voter fraud is a low risk to personal reward crime, and it will never be commonplace absent an organized scheme.


The penalties for vote fraud a vast compared to any potential benefit in any election.

Compare with theft, where the individual receives an immediate and personal gain. Your paranoia about it happening absent some outside organized scheme (church, union, company etc) so unlikely to tip any election, and so unlikely to create a shift in real benefits to individuals that the crime on any sort of significant scale simply won't happen.

Short of rigging vote machines or actual counts (In which case targeting election officials or the like is a FAR FAR more likely scheme) the crime is all risk for nearly zero reward.

Its not going to happen.

Voter intimidation however, does have the potential to swing districts.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:47 am 
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http://dailycaller.com/2011/07/29/missi ... ter-fraud/

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:52 am 
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And you suspect that these billboards are somehow going to prevent organizations from attempting such schemes? That they're somehow unaware that they're committing crimes that they could be prosecuted for?

These billboards are NOT there to scare people into not committing the crime. They're to scare legit voters away from the polls.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:55 am 
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Penalties only matter for people who:
1. Consider risk
2. Have an even moderate chance of being caught
3. If caught cannot depend on the political system which gains advantage due to their crime in making it go away

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:57 am 
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Amanar wrote:
Kaffis, that's why I said "divide that number by the overall percentage of registered voters who vote in that election." Although that may not be the correct statistical way to estimate the overall occurance of fraud in this instance, but I assure you there is a way. That's what statistics is made for.

But if there's a low voter turnout, the chances of collisions caused by fraud are lower, too. So trying to estimate such fraud by tracking collisions is... a pretty awful metric.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:03 am 
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http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/04/18/pj ... committee/


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Unfortunately, the Justice Department has not brought a single case under Section 8 of the National Voter Registration Act. Indeed, when I was at the Voting Section, political appointees expressed open and outright hostility to enforcing Section 8. Former Voting Section Chief Christopher Coates testified under oath that he recommended eight Section 8 investigations into various states, but that the political appointees overseeing the Voting Section simply said the Obama administration would not enforce Section 8 to require the removal of ineligible voters.5 Coates also testified that political appointees announced to the entire Voting Section in November 2009 that the Obama administration would never enforce Section 8 to require states to purge ineligible voters. Coates’ testimony was given under oath, and I can corroborate his account because I was also an eyewitness. Dozens of other eyewitnesses to these instructions exist.

With over 150 counties across the nation with more voters on the rolls than could possibly be eligible to vote, the outright refusal to enforce Section 8, a provision that was part of a carefully crafted compromise by Congress in 1993, threatens the integrity of the elections in November 2012.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:12 am 
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Amanar wrote:
If it's a lot then you'll have a pretty solid argument for stricter ID requirements.


Can you specifically pinpoint why you have a problem with an ID requirement to vote?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:22 am 
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Vote fraud is a very high personal risk-reward crime for a poor person or illegal immigrant. An extra 50 or even 20 bucks can mean a lot, especially with low risk of detection. People are willing to suck cock for $20 or less, they'd certainly cast a vote or three.

If minorities are, in any way, intimidated by a mere billboard that simply points out that an act is illegal, that is entirely a product of living in the past and creating this magical evil white conservative whose every action is dictated by racism. If people do not know the vote thay are casting is legal, they shouldn't cast it. It is not the responsibility of the right to take the word of the left that there no opportunity for fraud on the flimsy excuse that poor minorities can't be expected to know how to vote legally, or because they are "intimidated" due to fears the left goes out of its way to inflame.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:10 am 
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Diamondeye wrote:
Vote fraud is a very high personal risk-reward crime for a poor person or illegal immigrant. An extra 50 or even 20 bucks can mean a lot, especially with low risk of detection. People are willing to suck cock for $20 or less, they'd certainly cast a vote or three.

Can you imagine if some shady policitcal party filled a bus with people by offering them $100 per day and drove them from polling station to polling station to vote multiple times for known dead voters? Imagine how many more times you could do that if you allowed early voting?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:35 am 
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DFK! wrote:
Can you specifically pinpoint why you have a problem with an ID requirement to vote?

It's simply an unnecessary barrier to voting.

Hopwin wrote:
Can you imagine if some shady policitcal party filled a bus with people by offering them $100 per day and drove them from polling station to polling station to vote multiple times for known dead voters? Imagine how many more times you could do that if you allowed early voting?

I can imagine the absolute shitstorm that would follow after word got out.

Diamondeye wrote:
Vote fraud is a very high personal risk-reward crime for a poor person or illegal immigrant. An extra 50 or even 20 bucks can mean a lot, especially with low risk of detection. People are willing to suck cock for $20 or less, they'd certainly cast a vote or three.

Do you have any evidence of this sort of thing occurring?

Kaffis Mark V wrote:
But if there's a low voter turnout, the chances of collisions caused by fraud are lower, too. So trying to estimate such fraud by tracking collisions is... a pretty awful metric.

... that's the whole point of adjusting the number based on the turnout. If the turnout is 50% and you catch 15 instances of these collisions, you can estimate there's about 30 instances total. If the turnout is 10%, you can estimate around 150.

Diamondeye wrote:
You are hilarious. Not only is that not "doable", aalmost any one of those elements, especially those surrounding creating the device, entail nearly insurmountable technical challenges, especially if you want the device to be undetectable. You are claiming its "doable" on nothing more than intuition and because its convenient to this hacker nonsense you seem to want to hang your hat on.

Uh, did you read the article I linked? These "nearly insurmountable technical challenges" have already been surmounted. It's already been done!


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:38 am 
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Early voting bothers me. I see it as open season for abuse/fraud.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:00 pm 
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Amanar wrote:
DFK! wrote:
Can you specifically pinpoint why you have a problem with an ID requirement to vote?

It's simply an unnecessary barrier to voting.


So you believe in universal suffrage but don't believe in identity confirmation?

Those beliefs cannot be fully reconciled.

The inability to reconcile them only increases as other methods for voting (such as mail in ballots or early voting) are put in place to increase suffrage.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:37 pm 
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I love it. "Do you have any evidence? Just ignore the fact that the left systematically blocks anything that might actually detect voter fraud as 'intimidation'".

The catch-22 the left has set up is incredible.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:17 pm 
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We can easily detect voter impersonation using the method I described above. If you impersonate someone who is living and that person later tries to vote (or already voted before you) it will be detected. If you impersonate someone who is dead it can be detected by going back through the voter rolls after the election and cross-referencing them with death certificate records, as many studies have done. What the hell is stopping us from detecting it?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:18 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
So you believe in universal suffrage but don't believe in identity confirmation?

Those beliefs cannot be fully reconciled.

We have a system of identity confirmation and it's working just fine. Why change it?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:58 pm 
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Amanar wrote:
We can easily detect voter impersonation using the method I described above. If you impersonate someone who is living and that person later tries to vote (or already voted before you) it will be detected. If you impersonate someone who is dead it can be detected by going back through the voter rolls after the election and cross-referencing them with death certificate records, as many studies have done. What the hell is stopping us from detecting it?


It was already explained what the problem with this is. As for dead people, attempts to purge dead voters in the past have met with all sorts of opposition.

I don't know what these "many studies" are but when states have actually attempted to purge rolls, the opposition has been stiff.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:36 pm 
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Purging voter rolls is not detecting fraud, it's trying to prevent fraud. Also, the states already regularly purge their rolls for dead people. There is only opposition when it's done in a retarded way that results in the purging of a bunch of people who aren't dead.

Not sure what your problem is with the other half of my statement about living people, I don't see anything in this thread where you dispute that.

Voter ID laws also do not help detect fraud, they merely help prevent it. So where is the opposition to detecting voter fraud?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:14 pm 
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Amanar wrote:
DFK! wrote:
So you believe in universal suffrage but don't believe in identity confirmation?

Those beliefs cannot be fully reconciled.

We have a system of identity confirmation and it's working just fine. Why change it?


Tautological fallacy.


As stated by many others in this thread, we do not have a system that is "working just fine," because methods to judge it's success cannot exist within the current system.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:41 pm 
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What method to judge it are you proposing that is not being implemented?


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Amanar wrote:
Purging voter rolls is not detecting fraud, it's trying to prevent fraud. Also, the states already regularly purge their rolls for dead people. There is only opposition when it's done in a retarded way that results in the purging of a bunch of people who aren't dead.


States do not regularly purge their voter rolls.

Quote:
Not sure what your problem is with the other half of my statement about living people, I don't see anything in this thread where you dispute that.


Kaffis already pointed out that the problems with this. Technically, the fraud might still be detected but in such a way that nohing could be done about it and it would almost certainly be allowed to stand.

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Voter ID laws also do not help detect fraud, they merely help prevent it. So where is the opposition to detecting voter fraud?


They certainly do help to detect it. It is much easier to detect someone committing fraud if they must present ID.

Oh, wait. Maybe you mean that it won't be detected because it will be prevented. In that case, the law has still worked.

It is highly disingenuous to argue that a law doesn't help detect something because the behavior would no longer be there to detect with the law in place. The fact is that it would help to detect the behavior; it would just also help reduce it.

As to the opposition to collecting data, there isn't any opposition to collecting data except on the left. Your method just doesn't work. That's evidenced by the screeching when voter roll purges are attempted. It has nothing to do with ways being "Retarded" or them being conducted "regularly"; this is just you making up nonsense in order to support handwave arguments, just like your "it's pretty doable" to mess with voting machines. You don't know. You're just saying whatever is convenient to your position.

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