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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:15 pm 
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Oh, I didn't mean to imply that I agreed that moving the goalposts was a justified term. However, focusing on that doesn't change the situation, which is still clearly not the way it's presented by Obama (and the media lets him get away with and supports).

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 7:49 pm 
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No disagreement. I was just responding to "what would you call that?"

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:23 pm 
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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/5/email-tells-feds-make-sequester-painful-promised/



The Obama administration denied an appeal for flexibility in lessening the sequester's effects, with an email this week appearing to show officials in Washington that because they already had promised the cuts would be devastating, they now have to follow through on that.

In the email sent Monday by Charles Brown, an official with the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service office in Raleigh, N.C., Mr. Brown asked "if there was any latitude" in how to spread the sequester cuts across the region to lessen the impacts on fish inspections.

He said he was discouraged by officials in Washington, who gave him this reply: "We have gone on record with a notification to Congress and whoever else that 'APHIS would eliminate assistance to producers in 24 states in managing wildlife damage to the aquaculture industry, unless they provide funding to cover the costs.' So it is our opinion that however you manage that reduction, you need to make sure you are not contradicting what we said the impact would be."

"This email confirms what many Americans have suspected: The Obama administration is doing everything they can to make sure their worst predictions come true and to maximize the pain of the Sequester cuts for political gain," said Rep. Tim Griffin, Arkansas Republican.

Mr. Brown, the official who sent the email and who is eastern regional director for wildlife services at APHIS, didn't immediately return a call Tuesday afternoon seeking comment.

APHIS is an agency within the Agriculture Department, and on Tuesday department Secretary Tom Vilsack was challenged on the email at a House committee hearing by Rep. Kristi Noem, who said she hoped the department wouldn't tie agencies' hands.

Mr. Vilsack said he hadn't seen the email, but said agencies are supposed to be trying to find ways to manage the impact of the cuts.

"If we have flexibility, we're going to try to use it to make sure we use sequester in the most equitable and least disruptive way," the secretary testified. "There are some circumstances, and we've talked a lot about the meat inspection, where we do not have that flexibility because there are so few accounts."

The administration earlier had warned that supplies of beef, pork and poultry could drop this year because slaughterhouse inspectors will have to be furloughed, and under federal law meat can't be processed without inspectors present.

Ms. Noem told Mr. Vilsack the email made it sound like the administration was sacrificing flexibility in order to justify dire predictions.

"I'm hopeful that isn't an agenda that's been put forward," the South Dakota Republican congresswoman told Mr. Vilsack.

The $85 billion in sequesters began Friday, and have hit most of the federal government, where employees will face furloughs.

But even amid the cuts, APHIS is still hiring new employees and interns.

Since Sunday the agency has posted 24 help-wanted ads including 22 student internships, one ad seeking a clerk in a New York office, and one ad seeking three "insect production workers" to grow bollworms in Phoenix.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:09 am 
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Rorinthas wrote:
What concessions has the wh made in your opinion? Honestly curious. The house has given tax increases when they wanted none, but I dont feel the white house has done the same

I disagree with that assessment, Rori. What tax increases have the Republicans agreed to that weren't going to occur automatically anyway (via the expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the temporary payroll tax cut)? In fact, the deal that was made last month prevented some of the tax increases that were scheduled to occur, so rather than giving something up, Republicans actually got something they wanted. Meanwhile, the White House has signed off on close to $3 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years.

This blog post from Ezra Klein nicely sums up my view of the reason there's been no deal to avoid the sequester:

Ezra Klein wrote:
The bottom line on American budgetary politics right now is that Republicans won’t agree to further tax increases and so there’s no deal to be had. This is not a controversial perspective in D.C.: It’s what Hill Republicans have told me, it’s what the White House has told me, it what Hill Democrats have told me. The various camps disagree on whether Republicans are right to refuse a deal that includes further tax increases, but they all agree that that’s the key fact holding up a compromise to replace the sequester.

But it’s unpopular for Republicans to simply say they won’t agree to any compromise and there’s no deal to be had — particularly since taxing the wealthy is more popular than cutting entitlements, and so their position is less popular than Obama’s. That’s made it important for Republicans to prove that it’s the president who is somehow holding up a deal.

This had led to a lot of Republicans fanning out to explain what the president should be offering if he was serious about making a deal. Then, when it turns out that the president did offer those items, there’s more furious hand-waving about how no, actually, this is what the president needs to offer to make a deal. Then, when it turns out he’s offered most of that, too, the hand-waving stops and the truth comes out: Republicans won’t make a deal that includes further taxes, they just want to get the White House to implement their agenda in return for nothing. Luckily for them, most of the time, the conversation doesn’t get that far, and the initial comments that the president needs to “get serious” on entitlements is met with sage nods.

I highly recommend reading the full post, as it contains a perfect (and, in context, quite amusing) example of this pattern in action.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:45 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Meanwhile, the White House has signed off on close to $3 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years.


Which "spending cuts" are those? Are they the usual "draconian cuts" that reflect the new "austerity" of merely reducing the growth of spending?

On a different note, gotta love the way the "sequestration" has become merely another political tool:

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From: FN-WHO-Visitors Office

Sent: Tuesday, March 05, 2013 2:04 PM

To: FN-WHO-Visitors Office

Subject: ***Important White House Tours Update***

ATTN Interested Parties,


Due to staffing reductions resulting from sequestration, we regret to inform you that White House Tours will be canceled effective Saturday, March 9, 2013 until further notice. Unfortunately, we will not be able to reschedule affected tours.

We very much regret having to take this action, particularly during the popular Spring touring season. For updates regarding this situation, please contact the White House Visitors Office 24 Hour Hotline at [phone number].

Sincerely,

White House Visitors Office


I think it would be wise for Obama not to make any golf outings campaign trips travel plans unless absolutely necessary.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:54 pm 
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The bottom line on American budgetary politics right now is that Republicans won’t agree to further tax increases and so there’s no deal to be had.


Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. Claiming "well they came from tax cuts that were gonna expire anyhow!" is disingenuous since the Republicans wanted NO tax increase of ANY kind.

As for the rest of his nonsense, no, the President really has not done any of that. He's totally full of ****.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:07 pm 
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Diamondeye wrote:
Claiming "well they came from tax cuts that were gonna expire anyhow!" is disingenuous since the Republicans wanted NO tax increase of ANY kind.

It's not disingenuous at all. The status quo absent a deal was a larger tax increase, so the deal gave Republicans something they wanted and cost them nothing. If my lease automatically increases my rent by 5% next year, and I tell my landlord I want NO increase at all, and he agrees to be nice and only raise my rent by 3%, in what world did I give something up? I was at -5% to start, and I ended up at -3%. I improved my position by 2%. It's the landlord who gave something up; he started at +5% and ended up at +3%, so he worsened his position by 2%.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:25 pm 
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I'd still like to know what "spending cuts" you reference RD. I understand that your answering it would be difficult, seeing as the Senate hasn't passed a budget in over three years in contravention of their Constitutional obligation. When you make "factual" statements in an attempt to refute others' statements, it only makes sense that you'd be willing to show the veracity of those "facts", even if they are difficult to defend.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:33 pm 
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Vindicarre wrote:

I think it would be wise for Obama not to make any golf outings campaign trips travel plans unless absolutely necessary.


So does Louis Gomer, who tried to get a rider passed to that affect. However it was thought to be petty and didn't make it out of committee #toolazytosource.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:50 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
Claiming "well they came from tax cuts that were gonna expire anyhow!" is disingenuous since the Republicans wanted NO tax increase of ANY kind.

It's not disingenuous at all. The status quo absent a deal was a larger tax increase, so the deal gave Republicans something they wanted and cost them nothing. If my lease automatically increases my rent by 5% next year, and I tell my landlord I want NO increase at all, and he agrees to be nice and only raise my rent by 3%, in what world did I give something up? I was at -5% to start, and I ended up at -3%. I improved my position by 2%. It's the landlord who gave something up; he started at +5% and ended up at +3%, so he worsened his position by 2%.


Cost them nothing? That's hilarious. They had to agree to a tax increase and there were no spending cuts in the January deal.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:59 pm 
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Rorinthas wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:

I think it would be wise for Obama not to make any golf outings campaign trips travel plans unless absolutely necessary.


So does Louis Gomer, who tried to get a rider passed to that affect. However it was thought to be petty and didn't make it out of committee #toolazytosource.



If only the high integrity journalist and reporters of the Bush years were still around to bring attention to this...

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 5:42 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
Claiming "well they came from tax cuts that were gonna expire anyhow!" is disingenuous since the Republicans wanted NO tax increase of ANY kind.

It's not disingenuous at all. The status quo absent a deal was a larger tax increase, so the deal gave Republicans something they wanted and cost them nothing. If my lease automatically increases my rent by 5% next year, and I tell my landlord I want NO increase at all, and he agrees to be nice and only raise my rent by 3%, in what world did I give something up? I was at -5% to start, and I ended up at -3%. I improved my position by 2%. It's the landlord who gave something up; he started at +5% and ended up at +3%, so he worsened his position by 2%.


You know what you lost? 3%. Because you weren't at -5% to start, because apartments are a competitive market.

Unfortunately, this analogy fails. You have to look at it from the perspective of worlds without competition, i.e. government.

I am Sen Schmuck from WV. I am an R. I want 0% tax increases, and ideally I really want a tax cut to win me votes. I know that cuts in rates aren't likely. So I can stonewall at 0% and lose, literally, nothing. My base knows I stuck to my guns to keep their taxes low.

You are Sen Feelypants from NY. You are a D. You want a 20%-on-the-top-end-0%-on-the-low-end progressive tax increase. I can stonewall at 20% and lose, literally, nothing. My base knows I stuck to my guns to punish those mean rich people and corporations.

So, 0% and 20%. If the midpoint and final deal was 10%, who lost? What if it was 5%? What if it was 15%? Mathematically, both sides compromise at 10% evenly, with R "winning" at 5% and D at 15%.

Politics doesn't work like that though. The side advocating at 0% loses anytime the number increases from 0%. The side advocating a number >0% wins anytime that happens, because they at least got the other side to "come up." And what's great, politically, is that if they don't come up to your number enough (usually at least half way), you can claim "they're being unreasonable," because they didn't "mean you in the middle."

Let's test the inverse to remove intellectual bias.

If you replace "tax rates" with "spending cuts" and swap the D and R percentages in the scenario above, it's the same thing.

R wants 20% cuts [I should point out that this is pretty much not true at all, but people perceive the R's to want cuts so let's run with it]. D wants increases (negative percentage), but can stonewall at 0% cuts. If the D's come up to 5%, who "lost" and who "won?"

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 6:45 pm 
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Vindicarre wrote:
I'd still like to know what "spending cuts" you reference RD.

Well, for starters, there's the $900 billion of specific cuts in the Budget Control Act and the additional $1.2 trillion of across-the-board cuts via sequestration, both of which I believe I noted upthread. (And by the way, if you don't think reducing the planned growth of spending counts as cuts, that's fine, but then you likewise can't use that planned growth in spending when estimating the future mountain of deficit/debt as a justification for cuts.)


Last edited by RangerDave on Wed Mar 06, 2013 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 6:54 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
You know what you lost? 3%. Because you weren't at -5% to start, because apartments are a competitive market.

The problem with that is I'm locked into a lease so the market in apartments is irrelevant and unless I can negotiate a new deal, my BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) is -5%. I ended up at -3%. So I'm 2% better off than I would have been without the deal.

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I am Sen Schmuck from WV. I am an R. I want 0% tax increases, and ideally I really want a tax cut to win me votes. I know that cuts in rates aren't likely. So I can stonewall at 0% and lose, literally, nothing.

No, you can't stonewall at 0%, because without a deal, the result in an automatic tax increase. Just like I was locked into a lease in the example above, the Rs are locked into a tax increase unless they can negotiate a new deal. If the automatic increase is, say, 10%, stonewalling means you end up with that 10% increase. Alternatively, if there's a deal on the table to reduce that increase to only 5%, then taking the deal improves your position. Now, you can choose to stonewall and then go on TV to demagogue the issue and proclaim your dedication to principle, and blah, blah, blah, and thus maybe "win" in the sense of gaining personal political advantage, but in policy terms, you lost and your constituents got stuck with a higher tax bill than they otherwise would have.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:04 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
I'd still like to know what "spending cuts" you reference RD.

Well, for starters, there's the $900 billion of specific cuts in the Budget Control Act and the additional $1.2 trillion of across-the-board cuts via sequestration, both of which I believe I noted upthread. (And by the way, if you don't think reducing the planned growth of spending counts as cuts, that's fine, but then you likewise can't use that planned growth in spending when estimating the future mountain of deficit/debt as a justification for cuts.)


Cuts across the board.

Republicans do not want across-the-board cuts because while defense is always on the chopping block, entitlements never are. Entitlements are Democrat vote-buying schemes wherein the Republicans "hate poor people" and are "racist" if they propose cuts to them.

By contrast, defense budgets have varied up and down over the years, but no matter how much they get cut the left always wants more cuts. This is to the point of idiocy such that we have no nuclear cruisers left because they "cost too much to operate" back when oil was under $40 a barrel. Yeah, more fossil fuel consumption was a great idea for both the environment and for a limited resource, but **** that ****! Why do we need a Navy at all? That's money that could be spent making sure poor people vote democrat "solving" social problems.

So in other words, yes, the Republicans got spending cuts to the part of government most likely to get cut regardless because we live in a nation that fantasizes that if its defenseless everyone will want to be friends, in order to get cuts to the parts of government that are near-untouchable, plus a tax increase.

Of course, the real travesty here is that the Senate is skating unnoticed. See, it's the job of representatives to seek personal political advantage because they represent the people. By doing what will get them re-elected at home, they are doing what they are Constitutionally supposed to do. The House holds the purse strings for this reason; they are supposed to be the initiator on budgets.

Senators, on the other hand are supposed to think about their states, and the President is supposed to have the national interest at heart. While no President except maybe Washington has been immune from partisan influence, Obama is among the worst. He is heaping blame on the party that hols the house of Congress with the power of the purse. That's their job as Representatives.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:41 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
DFK! wrote:
You know what you lost? 3%. Because you weren't at -5% to start, because apartments are a competitive market.

The problem with that is I'm locked into a lease so the market in apartments is irrelevant and unless I can negotiate a new deal, my BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) is -5%. I ended up at -3%. So I'm 2% better off than I would have been without the deal.


Lease agreements into which you're "locked in" cannot be changed midstream, unless you were a moron when you signed it. In which case, sucks to be you.

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Quote:
I am Sen Schmuck from WV. I am an R. I want 0% tax increases, and ideally I really want a tax cut to win me votes. I know that cuts in rates aren't likely. So I can stonewall at 0% and lose, literally, nothing.


No, you can't stonewall at 0%, because without a deal, the result in an automatic tax increase. Just like I was locked into a lease in the example above, the Rs are locked into a tax increase unless they can negotiate a new deal. If the automatic increase is, say, 10%, stonewalling means you end up with that 10% increase. Alternatively, if there's a deal on the table to reduce that increase to only 5%, then taking the deal improves your position. Now, you can choose to stonewall and then go on TV to demagogue the issue and proclaim your dedication to principle, and blah, blah, blah, and thus maybe "win" in the sense of gaining personal political advantage, but in policy terms, you lost and your constituents got stuck with a higher tax bill than they otherwise would have.


You're attempting to use the real situation in a philosophical debate. Poor use of logical constructs.

Within politics, there are different rules, and policy terms don't really matter in the game of politics. They only matter in practice. Politics and practice are different animals entirely.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:52 am 
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RangerDave wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
I'd still like to know what "spending cuts" you reference RD.

Well, for starters, there's the $900 billion of specific cuts in the Budget Control Act and the additional $1.2 trillion of across-the-board cuts via sequestration, both of which I believe I noted upthread. (And by the way, if you don't think reducing the planned growth of spending counts as cuts, that's fine, but then you likewise can't use that planned growth in spending when estimating the future mountain of deficit/debt as a justification for cuts.)


Sorry, RD, I thought you were talking about cuts in addition to the BCA and its provision for sequestration. I never imagined you believed reductions in increased future spending in exchange for a like amount of straight up increased spending would count as "cuts". The BCA was passed so that BO could raise the debt ceiling. In exchange for a reduction of the increase in future spending of $917B, BO got $900B in increased spending through an increase in the debt ceiling. The $1.2T reduction of the increased future spending that is "sequestration" was offset by another increase of the debt ceiling by, you guessed it, $1.2T. What BO did, in effect, by signing the BCA was say, "I'll agree not to spend $2.117T over the next ten years in exchange for the ability to spend $2.1T now."

Sure I won't use planned growth in spending as justification for cuts. It's not as if the current $16.666 trillion isn't enough incentive. You've thus far provided, as evidence of BO signing "cuts" results in, a reduction of the current debt of perhaps $5B, right? Next year, and for the seven after that you can look at the current debt and perhaps knock another $1.7B off each year. I'm sure that will comfort you.

At best, the "cuts" you've provided as evidence of your $3T claim amount to $17B in reduction to increases of year to year spending over 10 years; that is beyond the fact that even if you count these decreases in spending increases as "cuts", $917 + $1200 = $2.117T. Where's the other $883B in "cuts"?

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 15, 2013 4:27 pm 
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Kind of a late response, but here goes:

Vindicarre wrote:
Sorry, RD, I thought you were talking about cuts in addition to the BCA and its provision for sequestration. I never imagined you believed reductions in increased future spending in exchange for a like amount of straight up increased spending would count as "cuts".

I'll get to the "increased spending" part in a second, but I should note up front that yes, I do believe that reductions in future spending from the projected baseline, even if that still constitutes an increase over current spending levels, count as "cuts". It's not a cut to the 2013 budget; but it is a cut to the projected 20XX budgets.

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The BCA was passed so that BO could raise the debt ceiling. In exchange for a reduction of the increase in future spending of $917B, BO got $900B in increased spending through an increase in the debt ceiling. The $1.2T reduction of the increased future spending that is "sequestration" was offset by another increase of the debt ceiling by, you guessed it, $1.2T. What BO did, in effect, by signing the BCA was say, "I'll agree not to spend $2.117T over the next ten years in exchange for the ability to spend $2.1T now."

Raising the debt ceiling is not the same as raising spending. There was not a $2T increase in appropriations/spending over what was already approved. Raising the debt ceiling just allows for the spending that has already been approved to actually get spent (including servicing the existing debt). Having a debt ceiling that is not tied to budgetary appropriations is, frankly, the complete opposite of fiscal responsibility.

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It's not as if the current $16.666 trillion isn't enough incentive.

Actually, it's not. If the absolute value of the debt could be held static at $16.666 trillion, budget hawks would be dancing for joy, because the combination of inflation and GDP growth over the next 10 years would significantly reduce the real and proportional size of that debt. Current GDP is roughly $15.9 trillion. So, even ignoring inflation and assuming a reasonable 2.5% average GDP growth rate, the debt would drop from approximately 100% of GDP to only 80% of GDP, which is much more sustainable. Of course, given that we're running deficits, the debt is actually increasing, not holding steady, which is why this whole conversation revolves around projections for the future - both projections of future economic growth and, as I mentioned above, projections of future spending (so again, cuts in projected future spending are the point).

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that is beyond the fact that even if you count these decreases in spending increases as "cuts", $917 + $1200 = $2.117T. Where's the other $883B in "cuts"?

Sorry, the $3T included about $800-900 billion in cuts from budget deals earlier in fiscal 2011 (which includes the last 3 months of 2010).


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