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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:18 pm 
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Vindicarre wrote:

I believe it is illegal in CA (which is foolishness, as age DOES affect decision making abilities), but not everywhere else.


I called asked someone who knows, it is illegal for Personal Auto rating (and instead the calculation uses driver experience to arrive at the same factor) but I only work on Commercial Auto which CA still allows age as a direct measure for ROCs. My bad :)

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:21 pm 
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All of those articles, and pretty much all complaints about blacks supposedly being profiled are correllation-causation fallacy. Blacks are not more likely to be suspect because they are black but because they are more likely to be doing something suspicious.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:36 pm 
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Diamondeye wrote:
All of those articles, and pretty much all complaints about blacks supposedly being profiled are correllation-causation fallacy. Blacks are not more likely to be suspect because they are black but because they are more likely to be doing something suspicious.

Bull. Take NYC for example, since I happen to have the stats close to hand. Black people are about 7 times more likely than white people to be stopped by the NYPD under the stop-and-frisk program, and 88% of those stopped are released without arrest or charge. Let me say that again: 7 times more likely to be stopped; 9 out of 10 are completely innocent. And your explanation is that it's not racial profiling; it's just that black people (apparently even the 9 out of 10 that are completely innocent) tend to act suspiciously? Seriously?


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:54 pm 
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RD -- what percentage of white people frisked are released without arrest or charge?

All you've demonstrated so far is that random frisks are less likely to find evidence of crime than they are to find evidence of crime. I could have told you that.

In fact, that 1 out of 8 black people stopped ARE charged or arrested shocked me, and suggests that maybe there's some merit to the preference.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:10 pm 
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Well since blacks have a proven higher rate of crime then their population percentage, wouldn't it make sense they get stopped more frequently. What if the police are doing it in proven high crime neighborhoods? Are they profiling then, say by geography?

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:12 pm 
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Let's be clear, Stop and Frisk is a travesty against 4th Amendment rights.


Please continue.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:16 pm 
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http://city-journal.org/2013/eon0722hm.html

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There is no question that in some “contexts,” as Obama would put it, black males elicit heightened scrutiny. In some neighborhoods, shopkeepers do closely watch, if not actually trail, young black males who enter their stores. And there is also no question that being viewed with fear when you are free of any criminal intent is infuriating and can lead to a humiliating sense of being a second-class citizen. This is an experience that all Americans should regret.

But the overwhelming reason for such a reaction, where it exists, is astronomically higher rates of black crime. In New York City, blacks commit 70 percent of all robberies and 63 percent of all grand larcenies, though they are just 23 percent of the population; whites commit 4 percent of all robberies and a little over 10 percent of all grand larcenies, though they are 35 percent of the population. Every American city with a black population shows comparable disparities. In some “contexts,” black crime is even celebrated. Earsnot, a New York graffiti vandal glorified in the documentary Infamy, mocks the trusting retail managers who don’t follow him as he cases their stores for merchandise: “You have that customer-shopkeeper thing going on, and they have no idea that you’re stealing—no idea. Or, they know that you’re stealing, and they see you in there mad times, and they still can’t stop me because I’m so nice.” According to Infamy’s admiring producers, Earsnot and his crew “commit grand larceny” every day, a walking crime spree that has undoubtedly led many a floor supervisor to adopt exactly the defensive posture that Obama condemns.

The newly rechristened “bash mobs” that have been terrorizing pedestrians and workers in, among other locations, downtown Chicago, Washington, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, are a black phenomenon, though a squeamish press shrinks from pointing that out. Someone who has been attacked by, or is simply the witness of, rampaging black teens is unlikely to be blasé if he later sees a group of rowdy black youth approaching. Obama may think that a heightened pulse rate or a tightened grip on a purse is an overreaction to such gratuitous violence, but it is an inevitable one. Here is a proposal: For a good five-year stretch, blacks bring their crime rate down to white and Asian levels. Once it becomes widely understood that blacks are no more likely to steal, rob, rape, or shoot than whites or Asians, we’ll see if blacks still elicit the defensive reactions that Obama alleges in elevators and department stores.[[

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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:32 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
...Ta-Nehisi’s core point is that making such blanket warnings about an entire group of human beings is just dumb if you actually care about the safety of your kids. It puts the race/gender/age category before all other obvious contexts: neighborhood, street, school, college, inner city, distant suburb, daytime, night, crowded places, dark streets, and the actual observed behavior of the young black man.



No, see, this is why the whole argument doesn't work.

Profiling does not provide blanket warnings about entire groups of human beings. The arguments against profiling are a strawman arguments.

They are indicators. Very simplisticly...

Let's say factors W, X, Y, Z are common statistical indicators of a high likelihood of certain criminal activity. Conversely, factors A, B, C, and D are common statistical indicators of a low likelihood of the same criminal activity.

When put together, "If any 3 of W, X, Y and Z are true, and none of A, B, C, or D are true, pay extra attention to this individual."

That's profiling. Race is only going to be one of those factors.

Almost all decisions humans make are playing probabilities. We weigh risks against benefits, likelihoods and unlikelihoods. Our entire decision-making process is based on this. But now people are asking us to ignore areas where there is a potential for SIGNIFICANT statistical data to be had, in the name of political correctness. It's bullshit.

The FBI employs entire teams dedicated to profiling many aspects of potential suspects, to try to figure out what type of person they are likely searching for, when trying to solve a crime. This is not "quack-science." It's related to psychology (which is a little more on the "quack" side), but is far more testable and reliable. (And it uses statistics more than psychology, anyway. "8 times out of ten, this type of killer has been from a broken home." It doesn't mean they exclude the 20% long odds, either, it just changes the focus.)

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:52 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
All of those articles, and pretty much all complaints about blacks supposedly being profiled are correllation-causation fallacy. Blacks are not more likely to be suspect because they are black but because they are more likely to be doing something suspicious.

Bull. Take NYC for example, since I happen to have the stats close to hand. Black people are about 7 times more likely than white people to be stopped by the NYPD under the stop-and-frisk program, and 88% of those stopped are released without arrest or charge. Let me say that again: 7 times more likely to be stopped; 9 out of 10 are completely innocent. And your explanation is that it's not racial profiling; it's just that black people (apparently even the 9 out of 10 that are completely innocent) tend to act suspiciously? Seriously?

Tell me, in what neighborhoods in NYC do you think crime is highest, and what do the inhabitants look like.
Also, no charges filed means little. Many crimes are not charged because the burden of prosecuting them is greater than the benefit.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:53 pm 
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RD:

50% of the murders in the USA perpetrated by 3% of the population. Should we not take that into consideration?


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:54 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
Let's be clear, Stop and Frisk is a travesty against 4th Amendment rights.


Please continue.

Lets be clear: stop and frisk requires reasonable suspicion, and its not hard to get in the places its done.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:21 pm 
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The Fourth Amendment wrote:
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

The Fourth Amendment is hands down the most deliberate and clear of all the Amendments in the Bill of Rights.

The Constitutional standard for searches is by Warrant issued upon Probable Cause. The Fourth, in point of fact, explicitly DISALLOWS blanket searches.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:25 pm 
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If they're wrong about their "reasonable suspicion" 90% of the time, the "standard" under which "reasonable suspicion" is judged is so low as to be a joke.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:33 pm 
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Vindicarre wrote:
If they're wrong about their "reasonable suspicion" 90% of the time, the "standard" under which "reasonable suspicion" is judged is so low as to be a joke.


More like, they are so used to doing it that the standard has slipped. Eventually someone will take them to court and it will be corrected.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:34 pm 
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Khross wrote:
The Fourth Amendment wrote:
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

The Fourth Amendment is hands down the most deliberate and clear of all the Amendments in the Bill of Rights.

The Constitutional standard for searches is by Warrant issued upon Probable Cause. The Fourth, in point of fact, explicitly DISALLOWS blanket searches.


These are not blanket searches. The 4th amendment prohibits unreasonable searches without a warrant, not all searches without a warrant. The courts have spoken on this issue. Move on.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:51 pm 
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Diamondeye wrote:
These are not blanket searches. The 4th amendment prohibits unreasonable searches without a warrant, not all searches without a warrant. The courts have spoken on this issue. Move on.
The Courts have spoken in recent years directly contrary to the stare decisis that keeps Roe v. Wade in place. The Fourth Amendment prohibits ALL searches without a warrant and ALL searches without specifically named parties, objects, and locations. How recent Courts read that Amendment is decidedly at odds with the Constitutional Law in place before Terry v. Ohio. We're still paying for Earl Warren's nonsense.

Weeks v. United States (1914) created the Exclusionary Rule. William Howard Taft, however, destroyed the Fourth Amendment effectively in Carroll v. United States (1925) by creating and allowing the automobile rule, from which ALL of Warren's Fourth Amendment nonsense stems. Were it not politically incorrect to rewrite the Warren Court's decisions, the Supreme Court would have reversed most of the Fourth Amendment rulings during Rehnquist's tenure.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:00 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
These are not blanket searches. The 4th amendment prohibits unreasonable searches without a warrant, not all searches without a warrant. The courts have spoken on this issue. Move on.
The Courts have spoken in recent years directly contrary to the stare decisis that keeps Roe v. Wade in place. The Fourth Amendment prohibits ALL searches without a warrant and ALL searches without specifically named parties, objects, and locations. How recent Courts read that Amendment is decidedly at odds with the Constitutional Law in place before Terry v. Ohio. We're still paying for Earl Warren's nonsense.


No, as a matter of fact it does not. Period. Roe v. Wade is utterly irrelevant.

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Weeks v. United States (1914) created the Exclusionary Rule. William Howard Taft, however, destroyed the Fourth Amendment effectively in Carroll v. United States (1925) by creating and allowing the automobile rule, from which ALL of Warren's Fourth Amendment nonsense stems. Were it not politically incorrect to rewrite the Warren Court's decisions, the Supreme Court would have reversed most of the Fourth Amendment rulings during Rehnquist's tenure.


Except that they wouldn't have, and the Fourth Amendment wasn't "Destroyed" at all, nor does it prohibit all searches without warrant, use of capital letters notwithstanding. That's the interpretation of the courts. If you don't like it, go get yourself searched so you have standing to take up the issue.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:44 pm 
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Weeks v. United States in 1914 was the first time the Supreme Court addressed the Fourth Amendment in any major way. It created the Exclusionary Rule and clarified the scope of the Fourth Amendment. Stare decisis keeps Roe v. Wade in place; it was, in point of fact, the legal concept Rehnquist used for NOT overturning Roe v. Wade on multiple occasions. The concept of stare decisis holds that because the Court had not reversed or altered or limited the decision in Roe v. Wade, that its cultural and social prevalence denied the Court standing to do so. The time frame between Roe v. Wade and the first invocation of stare decisis in its maintenance was right at a decade. Weeks v. United States should still stand in its entirety, but it does not, largely because of Carroll v. United States and Taft's decision. In fact, Taft's decision is where the Courts justified Terry Stops and found precedent for them.

And on this matter, the Courts have been wrong since Ohio v. Terry.
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The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

The language here hasn't been altered by Amendment. And pursuant to even John Marshall's Court, the Supreme Court does not have grounds to rewrite the Constitution. This sentence is extremely didactic. It denies warrantless searches and provides the grounds for warrants to be issued. Reasonable suspicion isn't in there. And, amusingly, that's how every court and every law in our country applied the Fourth Amendment until Carroll v. United States.

The Weeks decision was rendered because of the use of illegally obtained evidence in courts. And since Weeks, the Federal government has used every mechanism it has to erode the Fourth. Reasonable suspicion and Terry Stops are an affront to the Fourth Amendment.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:22 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Weeks v. United States in 1914 was the first time the Supreme Court addressed the Fourth Amendment in any major way. It created the Exclusionary Rule and clarified the scope of the Fourth Amendment. Stare decisis keeps Roe v. Wade in place; it was, in point of fact, the legal concept Rehnquist used for NOT overturning Roe v. Wade on multiple occasions. The concept of stare decisis holds that because the Court had not reversed or altered or limited the decision in Roe v. Wade, that its cultural and social prevalence denied the Court standing to do so. The time frame between Roe v. Wade and the first invocation of stare decisis in its maintenance was right at a decade. Weeks v. United States should still stand in its entirety, but it does not, largely because of Carroll v. United States and Taft's decision. In fact, Taft's decision is where the Courts justified Terry Stops and found precedent for them.


Roe v. Wade has nothing to do with this.
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And on this matter, the Courts have been wrong since Ohio v. Terry.


There is no such thing as the courts being wrong. The Courts decide these natters. If you claim the courts are wrong, that's the end of the discussion. It's just putting your own opinion over that of the court.

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The language here hasn't been altered by Amendment. And pursuant to even John Marshall's Court, the Supreme Court does not have grounds to rewrite the Constitution. This sentence is extremely didactic. It denies warrantless searches and provides the grounds for warrants to be issued. Reasonable suspicion isn't in there. And, amusingly, that's how every court and every law in our country applied the Fourth Amendment until Carroll v. United States.

The Weeks decision was rendered because of the use of illegally obtained evidence in courts. And since Weeks, the Federal government has used every mechanism it has to erode the Fourth. Reasonable suspicion and Terry Stops are an affront to the Fourth Amendment.


It doesn't matter if the sentence is didatic. It also doesn't matter how it was applied prior to Terry because that is the first time that issue of law came up. It doesn't matter if the language was altered by amendment or not; the courts found that it is not an absolute prohibition. MEchanical construction of the wording is not important; the goal of the Constitution is not to satisfy academic ideas about grammar.

In any case:

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The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.[1]


It's unreasonable searches and seizures, not all of them. It does not say warrants are needed for a search, only describes the conditions for one to be issued.

Period. That is how the average person and the courts read it, that is what's right, that's the way it is, and if you want to have an different opinion fine, but no one is doing anything wrong by not adhereing to it.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:33 pm 
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Diamondeye wrote:
There is no such thing as the courts being wrong.


So when one court overrules another court's decision... what does that mean?


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:02 pm 
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Lenas wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
There is no such thing as the courts being wrong.


So when one court overrules another court's decision... what does that mean?


That the system is doing what it's supposed to be doing and evolving.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:04 pm 
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Lenas wrote:
So when one court overrules another court's decision... what does that mean?


Doc brown style Paradox.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:20 pm 
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Aizle wrote:
Lenas wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
There is no such thing as the courts being wrong.


So when one court overrules another court's decision... what does that mean?


That the system is doing what it's supposed to be doing and evolving.


The Constitution is not an evolving document.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:01 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
Aizle wrote:
Lenas wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
There is no such thing as the courts being wrong.


So when one court overrules another court's decision... what does that mean?


That the system is doing what it's supposed to be doing and evolving.


The Constitution is not an evolving document.

200 years of empirical evidence indicates the contrary.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 8:13 am 
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Diamondeye wrote:
DFK! wrote:
Aizle wrote:
Lenas wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
There is no such thing as the courts being wrong.


So when one court overrules another court's decision... what does that mean?


That the system is doing what it's supposed to be doing and evolving.


The Constitution is not an evolving document.

200 years of empirical evidence indicates the contrary.


This is true, albeit out of context. My response was direct to Aizle's statement that the [the Constitution] is "supposed to" evolve via court decision. No it isn't. But you're right, we've had 17 Amendments, which are the proper course of Constitutional evolvement.

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