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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:40 am 
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Part of the issue in pricing is less competition in certain state exchanges:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... s/2986795/

I'm wondering if it's a case of "they'll never jump into those markets" or "they're just going to wait and see and evaluate down the road".

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:27 am 
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The Simpsons reference about halfway through (4:45-5:55 for the TLDW crowd) was pure gold. :D


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:43 am 
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Xequecal wrote:
What's causing the huge price increases for group plans, anyways? It was already illegal for them to discriminate based on pre-existing conditions so they didn't get hit by that part at all.


Lifetime maximum removal.
Requirement to carry youths.
Limits on actuarial variance.
Restrictions on how premiums are set.
Increases in mandatory coverages.

More that I can't think of off the top of my head.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:03 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
What's causing the huge price increases for group plans, anyways?

The fact that it's a Heritage Foundation "study"? I'm not expressing any opinion on the underlying issue of whether premiums will ultimately increase, decrease or stay roughly the same for most people. I'm just saying that I would take stats from a Heritage study about as seriously as I take stats from a Michael Moore movie.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:27 pm 
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RD, the numbers are right there. Should be easy enough to disprove. Why insist on basing your whole belief system on a logical fallacy?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:33 pm 
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Because socialized medicine has to work. It's sort of like how the war on terror had to work for Bush.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:34 pm 
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Healthcare.gov is a disastrous failure on a technical level, yet cost more to implement than the Internet-As-People-Know-It (Google, Yahoo, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook). No one should be hopeful about anything in this bill after we spent $600+ million dollars on a website that doesn't work.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:01 pm 
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Vindicarre wrote:
RD, the numbers are right there. Should be easy enough to disprove. Why insist on basing your whole belief system on a logical fallacy?

The numbers aren't "right there". Heritage, like everyone else at this point, is estimating, averaging, assuming, etc. to come up with what they consider to be illustrative numbers.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:08 pm 
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The Heritage foundation data is comparing individual insurance plans pre-Obamacare to the exchange plans now. It's not surprising there are large price increases because they got hit by the pre-existing condition regulations and now are mandated to cover every single unhealthy person that couldn't get insurance before. I mean honestly, what did people expect?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:17 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
RD, the numbers are right there. Should be easy enough to disprove. Why insist on basing your whole belief system on a logical fallacy?

The numbers aren't "right there". Heritage, like everyone else at this point, is estimating, averaging, assuming, etc. to come up with what they consider to be illustrative numbers.


I see numbers "right there" in the chart. If you believe their "estimates" are incorrect, attack their "estimates" (I'm sure there are numerous ObamaCare-backers putting up their own numbers, right?), not their ideology. It's sloppy logic, and you're better than that.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:23 pm 
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All of the ACA's affordability projections were based on a single, national risk pool and a de facto single payer implementation. The Exchanges and regulations should have normalized the insurance packages and created a commodity insurance market for the American population: a big box retailer for health insurance. Payers, that is insurance providers, would negotiate contracts to provide services on the various exchanges with the governing entities, allowing the payers to spread risk over the entire national market, because no payer would be offering coverage their competitors did not. It didn't work that way. Instead, because of all the post-passage amendments and alterations, exemptions and large risk pools were carved out of the Exchange markets. More importantly, the ACA doesn't change how we license health insurance payers outside of Medicaid/Medicare in the first place. This means there are states without underwriters; states losing underwriters for their group plans; and limited Exchange penetration for various geographically remote and demographically sparse areas of the country.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:31 pm 
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Vindicarre wrote:
I see numbers "right there" in the chart. If you believe their "estimates" are incorrect, attack their "estimates" (I'm sure there are numerous ObamaCare-backers putting up their own numbers, right?), not their ideology. It's sloppy logic, and you're better than that.

It's not sloppy logic to discard a scale that repeatedly gives erroneous measurements.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:45 pm 
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It is if you have no idea if the measurements are inaccurate.

It is if you need a scale and don't replace the scale.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:45 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
I see numbers "right there" in the chart. If you believe their "estimates" are incorrect, attack their "estimates" (I'm sure there are numerous ObamaCare-backers putting up their own numbers, right?), not their ideology. It's sloppy logic, and you're better than that.
It's not sloppy logic to discard a scale that repeatedly gives erroneous measurements.
Should we use the Brooking's Institute?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:56 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Should we use the Brooking's Institute?

I would consider them more likely to be accurate (or at least less inaccurate) than Heritage, yes.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:01 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
Should we use the Brooking's Institute?
I would consider them more likely to be accurate (or at least less inaccurate) than Heritage, yes.
Thanks for validating Vindi's point; you're letting your confirmation bias drive your dismissal of the Heritage study. I don't really have a dog in that particular race, I'm just pointing out you're aligning with ideology not accuracy on the reporting agent for the data.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:52 pm 
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Khross wrote:
RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
Should we use the Brooking's Institute?
I would consider them more likely to be accurate (or at least less inaccurate) than Heritage, yes.
Thanks for validating Vindi's point; you're letting your confirmation bias drive your dismissal of the Heritage study. I don't really have a dog in that particular race, I'm just pointing out you're aligning with ideology not accuracy on the reporting agent for the data.

*shrug* You're welcome to think so, but there's really no comparison. Brookings may have technocratic and center-left instincts, but it aims for honest analysis. Heritage, on the other hand, is openly dedicated to advancing a conservative agenda. Those are very different sources of bias with very different implications for the credibility of the institution.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:04 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
Thanks for validating Vindi's point; you're letting your confirmation bias drive your dismissal of the Heritage study. I don't really have a dog in that particular race, I'm just pointing out you're aligning with ideology not accuracy on the reporting agent for the data.
*shrug* You're welcome to think so, but there's really no comparison. Brookings may have technocratic and center-left instincts, but it aims for honest analysis. Heritage, on the other hand, is openly dedicated to advancing a conservative agenda. Those are very different sources of bias with very different implications for the credibility of the institution.
Strobe Talbott and Laura Tyson ...

Want me to go on? Whatever Brookings was before the Reagan Presidency, it's not that now. Center-left is pretty forgiving. Pro-European wealth distribution and a driving force behind the deleterious nature of multiculturalism in the United States would be more "honest" ...

Hell, Brookings pretty much defined itself in the Modern Era by objecting to deficit reduction measures after the Reagan Presidency.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:05 pm 
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For **** sake.

From the click-through:

Heritage wrote:
Methodology

The Heritage Health Insurance Microsimulation Model (HHIMM), in concordance with insurer data compiled by Mark Farrah and Associates, is used to create a snapshot of what it looks like to shop for insurance prior to exchange implementation. This data is used to build weighted average premiums within the rating areas, similar to the process described in the most recent release from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).[2]

First, we use expected age distribution in the individual market from the HHIMM. Next, we use census data for the county populations in order to scale up to the state level, creating something that is roughly comparable to the weighted averages presented by HHS.[3] This comparison is different from others in that, rather than comparing specific plans, it is designed to capture the difference in premium levels between the exchange and what could be acquired in the market.

This paper is meant to provide a necessary segue to HHS’s data summary, creating an apples-to-apples comparison of exchange data to what the costs are for individuals. Effectively, we have used the same methods that were employed to provide summary data on the exchange markets to prior insurance data in order to get the closest comparison.

Some state-based exchanges have data releases that are more limited than the 36 federal exchanges. For state exchanges, some premiums must be estimated. As is the case with all studies built to address the changes in exchange premiums, it is important to note that when more data becomes available, results could vary slightly.

This study considers the data as released by HHS. States with little data released are omitted from this study.[4]

This analysis represents the change in unsubsidized rate levels. The purpose of this research is to provide further details on the changing premium levels across the country. With this in mind, it is true that many people will have the opportunity to lower their personal monthly costs within the exchanges if they qualify for subsidies.


Do you have a problem with that methodology? Yes or no.

If Yes: why?
If No: shut the **** up.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:27 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Center-left is pretty forgiving. Pro-European wealth distribution and a driving force behind the deleterious nature of multiculturalism in the United States would be more "honest" ...

Eh...to-may-to / to-mah-to. ;)


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:32 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
Do you have a problem with that methodology? Yes or no.

Not on its face, but there's plenty of wiggle room in there, and like I said, I simply don't trust Heritage to be honest and reasonable in those gray areas.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:49 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
DFK! wrote:
Do you have a problem with that methodology? Yes or no.
Not on its face, but there's plenty of wiggle room in there, and like I said, I simply don't trust Heritage to be honest and reasonable in those gray areas.
But you trust the think-tank driving DC's Borrow-Your-Way-Out-Of-Debt Strategy?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:51 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
DFK! wrote:
Do you have a problem with that methodology? Yes or no.

Not on its face, but there's plenty of wiggle room in there, and like I said, I simply don't trust Heritage to be honest and reasonable in those gray areas.


Such as?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:42 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
Do you have a problem with that methodology? Yes or no.

Yes, because Heritage Institute is trying to argue that the Affordable Care Act is not affordable.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:10 pm 
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Oh, it's very affordable for those who are getting it for free (or dramatically reduced rates).

For the rest of us.. not so much...


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