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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:23 pm 
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I just figured Monty was actually an alter ego of yours, and that after all these years you had finally tripped up. That would have been so epic.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:25 pm 
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Sigh.

In short -

"Very Likely" = over 90% certainty.

Then I went on to list the statements of two out of dozens of international major scientific organizations that have all agreed on what I have argued.

You are trying to argue that it's irrational to think that the consensus is correct, and rational to conclude that the statements from scientists entirely outside of that research are correct.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:25 pm 
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Aegnor wrote:
I just figured Monty was actually an alter ego of yours, and that after all these years you had finally tripped up. That would have been so epic.


Do you have any idea how confused that would have made me during the Capulet postings?

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:46 pm 
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Monte wrote:
You are trying to argue that it's irrational to think that the consensus is correct


No she's not.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:50 pm 
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Monte wrote:
Taly wrote:
Ignoring scientists for what you suggest is like ignoring scientists for being members of the IPCC (which is sorely tempting, but not logical.)


I'm sorry, it's not. Those scientists are directly involved in the study of the subject. They are not part of a corporate funded think tank that's stated goals involve less regulation of the private sector.


And who funds the IPCC?

edit= fixed broken quote tag


Last edited by Ladas on Thu Sep 17, 2009 2:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 1:17 pm 
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Talya wrote:
I believe it's fairly obvious we're discussing "Human Induced Global Warming" here, as opposed to the natural cycles of warming and cooling that HIGW-proponents often claim do not exist.
This is precisely why the distinction must be made. You get elitist environmentalist pricks who ignore the natural warming and cooling cycles. You also get ignorant redneck poons who, because they so oppose the radical liberals, will believe that there are no natural warming and cooling cycles, which is equally problematic insofar as coming to a real solution.

Monte wrote:
Anything short of 100% is still worthy of debate, still needs to be questioned.
No, it is not, and no it doesn't. If you light a match underneath a penny, there is not a 100% chance that it will stay on the ground. And yet, nobody questions that it will stay still. There is a distinct, non-zero probability that the penny will jump to the top of a building. Random motion of the copper atoms that make up the penalty make that probability very small, but it is not zero.

There is a distinct, non-zero probability that all of the air particles in the room you're currently sitting in will be in the far corner, and you will suffocate. Again, the random motion of air particles makes this probability very small, but it is not zero.

There is not a 100% chance that you can breathe, right this instant. Somehow, I don't think you are willing to debate whether or not you are capable of breathing. I also don't think you'd wish to debate whether or not we can make pennies leap tall buildings in a single bound. Both of these probabilities are short of 100%. Furthermore, the probability that God does not exist is not 100%. We don't have enough information to calculate the probability, so it could in fact be far greater than flying pennies or people suffocating in a room full of air at STP. Yet you don't seem to be willing to accept Jesus as your personal Savior. That seems mighty hypocritical given your stance on HIGW.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 2:17 pm 
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Monte wrote:
Sigh.

In short -

"Very Likely" = over 90% certainty.

Then I went on to list the statements of two out of dozens of international major scientific organizations that have all agreed on what I have argued.

You are trying to argue that it's irrational to think that the consensus is correct, and rational to conclude that the statements from scientists entirely outside of that research are correct.


She's not arguing that it's correct to conclude either side is correct. In any case, a consensus is not "all the people who agree with one side of the issue."

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 5:57 pm 
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I remember when Global Cooling was a "fact" and we needed to change things immediatly. Now it's just shifted another way to fit the political- not the global- climate.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 6:07 pm 
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Monte wrote:
or to not have any credentials what so ever as climatologists.


I've always found this "sticking" point to be somewhat humorous. We all do know that the greenhouse effect and global warming have portions of other sciences in them right? Sciences such as biology, chemisty, and geology, among others. Hell, right up until the very end of the two processes, climatology is hardly involved at all.

The end result of these does affect climate more, but saying that someone isn't credible as a source for global warming just because they don't have climatologist credentials isn't showing the whole picture.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 9:02 pm 
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Ladas wrote:
Monte wrote:
Taly wrote:
Ignoring scientists for what you suggest is like ignoring scientists for being members of the IPCC (which is sorely tempting, but not logical.)


I'm sorry, it's not. Those scientists are directly involved in the study of the subject. They are not part of a corporate funded think tank that's stated goals involve less regulation of the private sector.


And who funds the IPCC?

edit= fixed broken quote tag



Generally the nations involved, the UN, etc.

So, is there some agenda there? If so, what would it be?

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 9:34 pm 
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Monte wrote:
Generally the nations involved, the UN, etc.

So, is there some agenda there? If so, what would it be?


The only thing more dangerous, more evil, more power hunger, and more agenda driven than megacorporations and religion -- governments themselves -- and you have to ask that question?

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 9:58 pm 
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I disagree with your premise. People are evil, power hungry, and agenda driven. People in Corporations often drive governments to their horrors, as do people in religions. Government is a tool.

Anyway.

Someone above said that HIGW proponents often argue that there are no natural heating and cooling patterns? What? No they don't. They know such patterns exist. They also know this trend is outside of those patterns, which is why it's such a concern.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:22 am 
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Monte wrote:
I disagree with your premise. People are evil, power hungry, and agenda driven. People in Corporations often drive governments to their horrors, as do people in religions. Government is a tool.

Anyway.

Someone above said that HIGW proponents often argue that there are no natural heating and cooling patterns? What? No they don't. They know such patterns exist. They also know this trend is outside of those patterns, which is why it's such a concern.


If people are this way, then it equally applies to people in activist groups, anti-corporate organizations, and people who are not involved in religion.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:29 am 
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And the evil, power hungry, driven people will congregate where they can gain the most power. IE Government.

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But master you in luck 'cause up your sleeves you got a brand of magic never fails...
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:27 am 
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Talya wrote:
And the evil, power hungry, driven people will congregate where they can gain the most power. IE Government.


According to Monty, however, all people are evil and power-hungry. I'm fairly sure this is accurate since he posted this:

Quote:
People are evil, power hungry, and agenda driven.


right down to the italics.

So, that should mean everyone is drawn to government.

Wait a sec... I think we may be onto something here.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:32 pm 
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Since we yet have global warming thread on these boards, and this being the only thread so far that has become hijacked to the subject, I thought this was a really interesting article from Reuter's about the Artic ice melting to its third smallest area since 1979

While it could easily be argued that 40 years of records is far to small to track trends of this longevity, it was still an interesting read, and certainly chock full of claims about this is the impact of climate change.

A few snippets from the article:

Quote:
The lowest point on record was reached in September 2007, and the 2009 minimum ranks as the third smallest behind last year's level. But scientists said they do not consider the slight upward fluctuation again this summer to be a recovery.


What I thought was equally interesting, for those following the topic in general, was this article, also on Reuters, regarding the surprising readings on the amount of energy actually being emitted by the sun during this "quiet" period.

Some snips, with interesting correlations to the other article in this thread:

Quote:
"The Sun continues to surprise us," said Sarah Gibson of the center's High Altitude Observatory and lead author of the study. "The solar wind can hit Earth like a fire hose even when there are virtually no sunspots."

Scientists previously thought the streams of energy largely disappeared as the solar cycle approached the minimum.

Gibson and the team, which also included scientists from NOAA and NASA, compared measurements from the current solar minimum interval, taken in 2008, with measurements of the last solar minimum in 1996.

Although the current solar minimum has fewer sunspots than any minimum in 75 years, the Sun's effect on Earth's outer radiation belt was more than three times greater last year than in 1996.


Quote:
As the number of sunspots fell over the past few years, large holes lingered in the surface of the Sun near its equator. The high-speed streams that blow out of those holes engulfed Earth during 55 percent of the study period in 2008, compared to 31 percent of the study period in 1996.

A single stream of charged particles can last for as long as 7 to 10 days, the study says.

"The new observations from last year are changing our understanding of how solar quiet intervals affect the Earth and how and why this might change from cycle to cycle," said co-author Janet Kozyra of the University of Michigan.


Last edited by Ladas on Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:46 pm 
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Ladas wrote:
, also on Reuters, regarding the surprising readings on the amount of energy actually being emitted by the son during this "quiet" period.


Wait... so Jesus is causing Global warming?

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:55 pm 
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Bleh. Don't know what is wrong with me these last few days. Read one of my other responses to Monte and couldn't believe how badly I had worded some of the sentences.

I didn't bother to fix that one, but did this post.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:25 pm 
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Hmm. JIGW--that's a good theory. Someone make a mathematical model to support that.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:38 pm 
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I think Revelation does indeed predict Jesus-induced climate change.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2009 3:46 pm 
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Talya wrote:
FoxNews just got someone worth watching!


Which is funny, considering that the entirety of their programming model is built around the talk radio format of marketing personalities.

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