The Glade 4.0

Yet another reason to never believe the numbers presented by the wise members of our gov't.

Hell, it was only off by ~50%, that's close enough for gov't work:

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"Dress cops up as soldiers, give them military equipment, train them in military tactics, tell them they’re fighting a ‘war,’ and the consequences are predictable." —Radley Balko

We should have a consolidated threat about California's economic problems.

Well they could not serve as a good example, so they will serve as a horrible warning.

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"Life isn't divided into genres. It's a horrifying, romantic, tragic, comical, science-fiction cowboy detective novel. You know, with a bit of pornography if you're lucky."
— Alan Moore

What part of "estimate" don't you understand Vindicarre?

What part of "not even **** close" don't you understand Aizle?


50% off isn't an estimate, it's a blind guess.

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“The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government.” - Thomas Paine

Do you know what an acceptable margin of error on any estimate is, Aizle?

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I estimate that my penis is 14" long.

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Holy shitsnacks!

ALOL @ the complete lack of comprehension.

Thanks guys.

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"Dress cops up as soldiers, give them military equipment, train them in military tactics, tell them they’re fighting a ‘war,’ and the consequences are predictable." —Radley Balko

Do you guys know how those estimates are done? And based off of what past metrics? And how is the data collected, and with what time variance?

Fact is we don't know from this article, yet apparently that's enough for Vindi to decide that it's yet another good example of the government being lousy at numbers.

Beyond all that, you're trying to guess the future, during one of the most turbulent economic periods in all our lives. Chances are that you're going to be off, probably wildly. Yet everyone is clammoring like bleeting sheep for an answer, so some poor bastards has to make their best guess.

But all estimates, even good educated ones are at the end of the day still a guess.

No they're not, they're estimates.


I have a business. We've been around for a hundred years, and in our first year we sold one thousand widgets. Every year we've sold one thousand more widgets than last year. Linear growth. I project or estimate that next year I'm going to sell one thousand more widgets than last year, based on my previous trend.

Your theory: Instead, I sell five hundred more, a difference in my estimate of 50%. I have 500 left that I've paid for, it's no big deal though, because it was just a guess that I made.

Reality: Instead, I sell five hundred more, a difference in my estimate of 50%. I have 500 left that I've paid for, and so now I have serious cash flow issues and may need to lay people off because I had only planned on having 0 left.

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“The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government.” - Thomas Paine

Way to miss the point.

Sure if you've had a hundred years of data, and have had a consistent linear growth, you're going to be able to make a pretty damn good guess at what next years sales will be.

However, you're STILL guessing at the future. The world economy could tank, a gas main could blow up your business, a new competitor could come on the market. All potentially affecting your sales figures and the reality of what happens.

Your scenario also appears to assume knowledge of all the data elements as well, which I'll tell you in the real world doesn't happen all that often. So you have to make assumptions, and sometimes those assumptions are wrong or only capture part of the picture.

Bottom line is that reality rarely works out as neatly as stuff looks on paper.

They've been doing this for decades, you'd think that they would have some established methodology that was effective. That's the problem, it would require cogent thought.

Please, read the goddamn article. They are not "guessing at the future", or "trying to guess the future", the "estimates" came out in 2010. Yes, "it's yet another good example of the government being lousy at numbers." A stellar example.

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"Dress cops up as soldiers, give them military equipment, train them in military tactics, tell them they’re fighting a ‘war,’ and the consequences are predictable." —Radley Balko

A had something I was going to say, but since Mr. Government didn't like my example, I'll just go with:

QFT

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“The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government.” - Thomas Paine

That's just it. The numbers they release are more about politics than indicators. They know this, and do it this way on purpose.

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

The numbers were in the ballpark...

...just not the same ballpark where the game was being played.

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In time, this too shall pass.

Or the same sport even. The numbers were like in Qwest Field, and the estimates were in the All England Club @ centre court

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Holy shitsnacks!

My father is an estimator. Now, while I don't know how these particular estimates are done, I do know how estimates are done. I also know what an acceptable margin of error is. Under 5% is what you're looking for. Sometimes the best you can do is get within 10%.

You have adopted the same attitude as Personnel ***** and her trained staff of HR monkeys. "It's just an guess. All you need is a ballpark figure." (Which 50% most certainly is not). This, by the way, is why my father still works there, while Personnel ***** has been gone for over ten years. Now it's fine that you don't understand the difference between a guess and an estimate. Most people don't. All the same, you don't understand the difference between a guess and an estimate.

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Buckle your pants or they might fall down.

The common thought in California politics is double whatever estimate is coming out of the Capitol. Two basic scenarios, first - don't let the public know how bad it really is until you can use the higher amount as a scare tactic, and two - people don't give the real numbers because California is so damn big no one has managed to find a way to accumulate all the data in a rapid time frame. A third one I consider a factor is that some of the guys/gals in charge hide their department/agency's red ink until they have some safety net, something lined up to jump to.

Most of us with out boots on the ground just keep doing our jobs hoping they don't cut our pay again or steal our pensions.

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The U. S. Constitution doesn't guarantee happiness, only the pursuit of it. You have to catch up with it yourself. B. Franklin

"A mind needs books like a sword needs a whetstone." -- Tyrion Lannister, A Game of Thrones

I say we let California fail. Then we nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

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Los Angeles Kings 2014 Stanley Cup Champions

"I love this **** team right here."
-Jonathan Quick

This.

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