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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:17 pm 
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I just don't see how doing this is going to help curb spending, quite to the contrary, I'd immagine the poverty level will be set somewhere around $40,000, adding tons of new spending and being the spring board to a ton of new programs.

The bolded added is mine.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/02/AR2010030202316.html

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New formula to give fresh look at U.S. poverty

By Amy Goldstein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, March 3, 2010; A02



The Obama administration Tuesday embraced an alternative way of defining what it means to be poor, stepping gingerly into a long-running debate over whether to revise the method that has been used to measure poverty for decades.

Under a "Supplemental Poverty Measure" announced by the Commerce Department, the government is augmenting, but not replacing, the formula that determines how many people are considered to be in poverty, taking into account a wider range of expenses and income to try to create a truer portrait of which Americans are financially fragile.

The old definition, developed in the mid-1960s using data from a decade earlier, was based on the cost of food and a family's cash income. The new one, acknowledging that food has become a smaller share of poor families' costs, will also consider expenses such as housing, utilities, child care and medical treatment. In gauging people's resources, the new method will include financial help from housing and food subsidies, in addition to money from jobs and cash assistance programs.

The way poverty is defined is at once arcane and politically volatile, because the number of people who are considered poor has broad implications for the nation's economic self-image and the way billions of federal dollars are distributed for Medicaid, welfare, food stamps and other aid programs.

While they are adopting a second formula, administration officials are largely sidestepping that political minefield by deciding to retain the old one as the basis for the official federal poverty line -- the threshold underlying eligibility rules for assistance programs.

Instead, the second formula "provides us a different angle on who is in economic need," said Rebecca M. Blank, Commerce's undersecretary for economic affairs, who had advocated for more than a decade before joining the administration for a different way of thinking about who is poor. The formula is to be used by the government for the first time next year in an annual Census Bureau report that includes the poverty rate.

The rate will be calculated by both methods.

"It's been hard to make progress this far," said Arloc Sherman, a senior researcher at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, one of the constituencies across the ideological spectrum that have griped for years that the poverty definition was out of date.

The alternative definition is derived largely from a recommendation on how to measure poverty that the National Academy of Sciences issued 15 years ago. Blank, whose responsibilities include the Census Bureau, was part of the academy panel that made the recommendation.

She said in an interview that federal officials have not tried yet to calculate whether the new definition will increase or decrease the number of Americans who qualify as poor.

Two years, ago, New York City became the nation's first jurisdiction to adopt its own way of measuring poverty, also based on the academy's work.

A report issued Tuesday by New York's Center for Economic Opportunity shows that its new approach produces a higher poverty rate.

For 2008, the report found, the city's poverty rate was 22 percent under the new formula, compared with slightly less than 18 percent using the official federal definition.

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Last edited by Rynar on Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:18 pm 
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:19 pm 
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Müs wrote:
When you don't like something, change how you define it!


SEMANTICS!

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:22 pm 
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Rynar wrote:
Müs wrote:
When you don't like something, change how you define it!


SEMANTICS!


RACIST!

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:57 pm 
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I am for this. Maybe it will finally create some upward mobility as companies realize that you can't support your family very well on 35k/year.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:59 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
I am for this. Maybe it will finally create some upward mobility as companies realize that you can't support your family very well on 35k/year.



How, when their resources are farther cut into by the taxes nessecary to cover the new programs? If anything it will lead to more joblessness, and a lowering of wages.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:09 pm 
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See, the problem I have with stuff like housing assistance is mainly this:
For people that are *close* to the arbitrary line drawn, say $23k a year, to live in low cost housing and are barely making it on that with food, transportation, rent, utilities, etc. Say they make $22,5 a year. They get a raise at work, and they're bumped to $23,5 a year. Now, with their extra $1000 a year, they're no longer eligible for the subsidized rent, and in some areas, the price of a similar apartment is double or more what they're paying for where they live. It just seems like there's no incentive to do better in life and get away from poverty.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:31 pm 
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Rynar wrote:
I just don't see how doing this is going to help curb spending, quite to the contrary, I'd immagine the poverty level will be set somewhere around $40,000, adding tons of new spending and being the spring board to a ton of new programs.


I think the effect on spending, assistance levels, etc. is irrelevant, no matter which way it goes. If the current formula does a lousy job of reflecting actual standards of living, then it should be changed. The goal should be to get the most accurate information/understanding possible, regardless of the political fallout.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:34 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Rynar wrote:
I just don't see how doing this is going to help curb spending, quite to the contrary, I'd immagine the poverty level will be set somewhere around $40,000, adding tons of new spending and being the spring board to a ton of new programs.


I think the effect on spending, assistance levels, etc. is irrelevant, no matter which way it goes. If the current formula does a lousy job of reflecting actual standards of living, then it should be changed. The goal should be to get the most accurate information/understanding possible, regardless of the political fallout.


I disagree, RD. When it comes to statistics used as a baseline to direct funds, esspecially in the case of government which can only do so at the behest of those it seeks to recieve its funds from, all decisions of this sort need to be evaluated for their net effect on the economy.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:52 pm 
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I'm sympathetic to that concern, Rynar, but what you're suggesting still seems like manipulating the facts to suit one's policy goals. It's just not honest governance. Much better to acknowledge the facts, change the formula, and then argue for amending the laws that use the poverty stat to calculate funding.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:52 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Rynar wrote:
I just don't see how doing this is going to help curb spending, quite to the contrary, I'd immagine the poverty level will be set somewhere around $40,000, adding tons of new spending and being the spring board to a ton of new programs.


I think the effect on spending, assistance levels, etc. is irrelevant, no matter which way it goes. If the current formula does a lousy job of reflecting actual standards of living, then it should be changed. The goal should be to get the most accurate information/understanding possible, regardless of the political fallout.


I think you're grossly underestimating the effect that increasing the amount of gross income that is the poverty line would have on our already strained state and national economy.

This plan would wholly destroy any hope of recovery this nation has. Period.

Furthermore, this is a sideways attempt, if done in a rapid timeframe without scrutiny, to then be able to go on and talk about how many millions of Americans would be subsidized under the new healthcare plan, given that it subsidized people up to 400% of the Federal poverty level.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:58 pm 
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All of which are great arguments for amending the relevant laws, not for pretending the current poverty level stat is a reasonable reflection of reality*.

*Note: I express no opinion about whether or not the current stat is reasonable. I'm just saying that if it's not, then we shouldn't pretend otherwise.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:59 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
I'm sympathetic to that concern, Rynar, but what you're suggesting still seems like manipulating the facts to suit one's policy goals. It's just not honest governance. Much better to acknowledge the facts, change the formula, and then argue for amending the laws that use the poverty stat to calculate funding.


That's just it, RD. Reestablishing the poverty line in this manner is extraordinarily arbitrary and ultra-political in and of itself. There are no facts presented, only feelings about what individuals are entitled to beyond what they are able to earn. There is nothing dishonest about that.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


Last edited by Rynar on Thu Mar 04, 2010 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 5:01 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
All of which are great arguments for amending the relevant laws, not for pretending the current poverty level stat is a reasonable reflection of reality*.

*Note: I express no opinion about whether or not the current stat is reasonable. I'm just saying that if it's not, then we shouldn't pretend otherwise.


I agree with this.

However, procedural change is not the way to affect that change. In order to not cripple the budget of various state and federal programs, you must simultaneously change how eligibility for those programs and the way the poverty metric is determined. This would most certainly require federal law, not administrative order.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 5:02 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
I am for this. Maybe it will finally create some upward mobility as companies realize that you can't support your family very well on 35k/year.



This is an issue with the labor pool being approximately twice the percentage of the population as it used to be.

Not to take anything away from Women's Suffrage, as I fully support (obviously) the idea that a woman should be able to work and make a living without relying on a man, it used to be there was only one "breadwinner" per family. So Ward Cleaver was bringing home his salary to support the entire family. Trouble is, when all the June Cleavers entered the workforce, the labor pool doubled. Neither parent stayed home, and wages, like everything else, are a matter of supply vs. demand. So what that means now, is if you have a near-average income, you need two people working to make ends meet. (This was the ultimately source of the insane inflation rates over the few decades where women started seriously entering the workforce.)

If people had maintained the "One person goes to work, the other stays home to be homemaker/child-raiser" standard (and I don't care if it's the man or the woman in either of those roles), then average income would be double what it is now. (or more likely, the cost of living would be half of what it is now.)

Employers really can't really do much about this. For every dollar they raise the average wage of their employees, they have to recoup an extra dollar per employee somewhere else. This can be from cutting expenses, or raising prices. No matter how it's done, this is either neutral to the laborforce, or on inflationary force on the cost of living.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 5:27 pm 
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Government shouldn't set a "poverty" level. It shouldn't collect information on it, it shouldn't attempt to set one, it shouldn't attempt to adjust its interactions with citizens because of where they fall on it.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:00 pm 
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Well, if it starts to cost $50 for a loaf of bread, I'll need to be in the poverty zone too.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 7:20 pm 
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Wwen wrote:
Well, if it starts to cost $50 for a loaf of bread, I'll need to be in the poverty zone too.


If it starts to cost $50 for a loaf of bread, everyone will be reminded of how things really work.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 9:57 pm 
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It makes sense to redraw the line. As we've discussed before, $x may be middle class in some areas and poor in others. You can always adjust the "poor enough to get government help" to meet your budget, but the calculation should be reworked.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 10:09 pm 
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for some reason I keep seeing this thread as "resetting the poverty bear" and regardless of the actual content I keep thinking of some sort of new dysfunctional care bear product.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 7:55 am 
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Rynar wrote:
Hopwin wrote:
I am for this. Maybe it will finally create some upward mobility as companies realize that you can't support your family very well on 35k/year.



How, when their resources are farther cut into by the taxes nessecary to cover the new programs? If anything it will lead to more joblessness, and a lowering of wages.

I am operating under the assumption that employers will feel pressured to raise wages. It is naive and wishful thinking yes, but I'm still going to believe.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 7:59 am 
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Hopwin wrote:
Rynar wrote:
Hopwin wrote:
I am for this. Maybe it will finally create some upward mobility as companies realize that you can't support your family very well on 35k/year.



How, when their resources are farther cut into by the taxes nessecary to cover the new programs? If anything it will lead to more joblessness, and a lowering of wages.

I am operating under the assumption that employers will feel pressured to raise wages. It is naive and wishful thinking yes, but I'm still going to believe.


But how can they? Many would likely be driven out of business by new taxes levied on them to pay for these programs. Those who aren't will survive by trimming payroll, and making tough personel decisions. Think of the economic climate we are already in: do you feel it would be helpful or harmful to raise taxes considerably? Some employers might come to wish they could afford to raise wages as they watch their employees suffer, sure. Some probably already do. But wish in one hand, and **** in the other and see what fills up first. If there is no money because there is no business and then you make there be less money and less business, how is that supposed to drive up wages?

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


Last edited by Rynar on Fri Mar 05, 2010 11:06 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 7:59 am 
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Talya wrote:
Hopwin wrote:
I am for this. Maybe it will finally create some upward mobility as companies realize that you can't support your family very well on 35k/year.



This is an issue with the labor pool being approximately twice the percentage of the population as it used to be.

Not to take anything away from Women's Suffrage, as I fully support (obviously) the idea that a woman should be able to work and make a living without relying on a man, it used to be there was only one "breadwinner" per family. So Ward Cleaver was bringing home his salary to support the entire family. Trouble is, when all the June Cleavers entered the workforce, the labor pool doubled. Neither parent stayed home, and wages, like everything else, are a matter of supply vs. demand. So what that means now, is if you have a near-average income, you need two people working to make ends meet. (This was the ultimately source of the insane inflation rates over the few decades where women started seriously entering the workforce.)

If people had maintained the "One person goes to work, the other stays home to be homemaker/child-raiser" standard (and I don't care if it's the man or the woman in either of those roles), then average income would be double what it is now. (or more likely, the cost of living would be half of what it is now.)

Employers really can't really do much about this. For every dollar they raise the average wage of their employees, they have to recoup an extra dollar per employee somewhere else. This can be from cutting expenses, or raising prices. No matter how it's done, this is either neutral to the laborforce, or on inflationary force on the cost of living.


Normally this isn't something I advocate for but I did the math this year when they capped raises at 2.5% in a year we grew 5%, made record profits and had more customers than ever before... If the CEO of my company halved his wages/bonuses it would work out to an extra $4k/year per employee and he would still be well within the 7-figure mark. Imagine if all executives did that?

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 8:17 am 
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RangerDave wrote:
All of which are great arguments for amending the relevant laws, not for pretending the current poverty level stat is a reasonable reflection of reality*.

*Note: I express no opinion about whether or not the current stat is reasonable. I'm just saying that if it's not, then we shouldn't pretend otherwise.

Then have the calculation revision void the laws that reference poverty level, and force them to all be amended or re-passed as the changeover is made.

I agree that we should strive to have the best facts, and argue policy based on truth, not on manipulated numbers.

However, that doesn't change the fact that with current laws written the way they tend to be, changing the derivation of the numbers is a dangerous thing to do on its own.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 10:37 am 
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DFK wrote:
In order to not cripple the budget of various state and federal programs, you must simultaneously change how eligibility for those programs and the way the poverty metric is determined. This would most certainly require federal law, not administrative order.

Kaffis Mark V wrote:
However, that doesn't change the fact that with current laws written the way they tend to be, changing the derivation of the numbers is a dangerous thing to do on its own.


Aye, agreed. The laws should be changed at the same time as the formula. Practically speaking, though, the Administration only has control over the formula, not the laws, so I think it's taking the right approach here by creating the new formula for informational (i.e. political pressure) purposes, but continuing to use the old formula for actual statutory calculations. That sends the signal to Congress that this is something they're going to have to deal with at some point soon, without actually causing the fiscal shock everyone's worried about.


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