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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:38 am 
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In the NYT today - this article seems to confirm my suspicions. Contrary to what conservatives claim, the biggest defaulters on mortgages are not the poor and those living outside their means, but instead are the rich people who see their housing values tanking and so default. 1 in seven for the rich, 1 in 12 for those with less lavish homes. So many claimed it was the fault of things like Fanny Mae and the CRA, and yet as we can see the people most likely to be abandoning their contractual obligations are the people with the greatest ability to pay those obligations.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:40 am 
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You really don't get what the problem with Freddie and Fannie were do you?

No, of course you don't. You don't even know what a bubble is.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:09 pm 
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Using articles hidden behind account only sites to support your argument sucks.

Care to copy the actual article, or at least give the name of the article so search engines can returned cached versions that can be read.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:11 pm 
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It's not account only, that link works.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:17 pm 
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For the link impaired ...
The New York Times wrote:
Biggest Defaulters on Mortgages Are the Rich
By DAVID STREITFELD
LOS ALTOS, Calif. — No need for tears, but the well-off are losing their master suites and saying goodbye to their wine cellars.

The housing bust that began among the working class in remote subdivisions and quickly progressed to the suburban middle class is striking the upper class in privileged enclaves like this one in Silicon Valley.

Whether it is their residence, a second home or a house bought as an investment, the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population.

More than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent, according to data compiled for The New York Times by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.

By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.

Though it is hard to prove, the CoreLogic data suggest that many of the well-to-do are purposely dumping their financially draining properties, just as they would any sour investment.

“The rich are different: they are more ruthless,” said Sam Khater, CoreLogic’s senior economist.

Five properties here in Los Altos were scheduled for foreclosure auctions in a recent issue of The Los Altos Town Crier, the weekly newspaper where local legal notices are posted. Four have unpaid mortgage debt of more than $1 million, with the highest amount $2.8 million.

Not so long ago, said Chris Redden, the paper’s advertising services director, “it was a surprise if we had one foreclosure a month.”

The sheriff in Cook County, Ill., is increasingly in demand to evict foreclosed owners in the upscale suburbs to the north and west of Chicago — like Wilmette, La Grange and Glencoe. The occupants are always gone by the time a deputy gets there, a spokesman said, but just barely.

In Las Vegas, Ken Lowman, a longtime agent for luxury properties, said four of the 11 sales he brokered in June were distressed properties.

“I’ve never seen the wealthy hit like this before,” Mr. Lowman said. “They made their plans based on the best of all possible scenarios — that their incomes would continue to grow, that real estate would never drop. Not many had a plan B.”

The defaulting owners, he said, often remain as long as they can. “They’re in denial,” he said.

Here in Los Altos, where the median home price of $1.5 million makes it one of the most exclusive towns in the country, several houses scheduled for auction were still occupied this week. The people who answered the door were reluctant to explain their circumstances in any detail.

At one house, where the lender was owed $1.3 million, there was a couch out front wrapped in plastic. A woman said she and her husband had lost their jobs and were moving in with relatives. At another house, the family said they were renters. A third family, whose mortgage is $1.6 million, said they would be moving this weekend.

At a vacant house with a pool, where the lender was seeking $1.27 million, a raft and a water gun lay abandoned on the entryway floor.

Lenders are fearful that many of the 11 million or so homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will walk away from them, especially if the real estate market begins to weaken again. The so-called strategic defaults have become a matter of intense debate in recent months.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two quasi-governmental mortgage finance companies that own most of the mortgages in America with a value of less than $500,000, are alternately pleading with distressed homeowners not to be bad citizens and brandishing a stick at them.

In a recent column on Freddie Mac’s Web site, the company’s executive vice president, Don Bisenius, acknowledged that walking away “might well be a good decision for certain borrowers” but argues that those who do it are trashing their communities.

The CoreLogic data suggest that the rich do not seem to have concerns about the civic good uppermost in their mind, especially when it comes to investment and second homes. Nor do they appear to be particularly worried about being sued by their lender or frozen out of future loans by Fannie Mae, possible consequences of default.

The delinquency rate on investment homes where the original mortgage was more than $1 million is now 23 percent. For cheaper investment homes, it is about 10 percent.

With second homes, the delinquency rate for both types of owners was rising in concert until the stock market crashed in September 2008. That sent the percentage of troubled million-dollar loans spiraling up much faster than the smaller loans.

“Those with high net worth have other resources to lean on if they get in trouble,” said Mr. Khater, the analyst. “If they’re going delinquent faster than anyone else, that tells me they are doing so willingly.”

Willingly, but not necessarily publicly. The rapper Chamillionaire is a plain-talking exception. He recently walked away from a $2 million house he bought in Houston in 2006.

“I just decided to let it go, give it back to the bank,” he told the celebrity gossip TV show “TMZ.” “I just didn’t feel like it was a good investment.”

The rich and successful often come naturally to this sort of attitude, said Brent T. White, a law professor at the University of Arizona who has studied strategic defaults.

“They may be less susceptible to the shame and fear-mongering used by the government and the mortgage banking industry to keep underwater homeowners from acting in their financial best interest,” Mr. White said.

The CoreLogic data measures serious delinquencies, which means the borrower has missed at least three payments in a row. At that point, lenders traditionally file a notice of default and the house enters the official foreclosure process.

In the current environment, however, notices of default are down for all types of loans as lenders work with owners in various modification programs. Even so, owners in some of the more expensive neighborhoods in and around San Francisco are beginning to head for the exit, according to data compiled by MDA DataQuick.

In Los Altos, Los Altos Hills and the most expensive neighborhood in adjoining Mountain View, defaults in the first five months of this year edged up to 16, from 15 in the same period in 2009 and four in 2008.

The East Bay suburb of Orinda had eight notices of default for million-dollar properties, up from five in the same period last year. On Nob Hill in San Francisco, there were four, up from one. The Marina neighborhood had four, up from two.

The vast majority of owners in these upscale communities are still paying the mortgage, of course. But they appear to be cutting back in other ways. The once-thriving Los Altos downtown is pocked with more than a dozen empty storefronts in a six-block stretch.

But this is still Silicon Valley, where failure can always be considered a prelude to success.

In the middle of a workday, one troubled homeowner here leaned over his laptop at the kitchen table, trying to maneuver his way out from under his debt and figure out the next big thing.

His five-bedroom house, drained of hundreds of thousands of dollars of equity over the last 13 years, is scheduled for auction July 20. Nine months ago, after his latest business (he has had several) failed in what he called “the global meltdown,” the man, a technology entrepreneur, said he quit making his $9,000 monthly payments.

“I’m going to be downsizing,” he said.

The man spoke on the condition of anonymity because, he said, he did not want his current problems to interfere with his coming reinvention. “I’m a businessman,” he explained. “I have to be upbeat.”

Carol Pogash contributed reporting.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:26 pm 
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I don't see where the assertion "the people most likely to be abandoning their contractual obligations are the people with the greatest ability to pay those obligations" is supported in that article.

"Chamillionaire" (whoever the hell he is) is the only one identified as doing so, the others who are identified are folks who have lost their jobs or can't pay for other reasons.

The article is making huge conclusions on little facts.

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Last edited by Taskiss on Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:32 pm 
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Lenas wrote:
It's not account only, that link works.

I have this problem every time with NYT. Any link I try that points to one of their articles insists that I register/subscribe to the site in order to access the article. I don't know why no one else has this issue, unless you guys just all went ahead and created accounts there. I personally have no interest in that.

But thank you Khross for providing the content. That said, that article is ridiculous, and the conclusions Monte (and the author) has made aren't supported by content.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:34 pm 
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Not to mention it's a pretty biased piece.

Even so 1/7 million dollar homes is <<<<<<<<<<< 1/12 cheaper homes.

Sorry, monty, but I think you fell victim to the spin and bias in your article.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:46 pm 
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The article itself is yellow journalism at its finest. CoreLogic is a risk evaluation subsidiary of The First American Corporation that specializes in strategic default analysis. The First American Corporation is the largest title insurer for jumbo loans in the United States. There's a demonstrable conflict of interest contained within that reality. More to the point, strategic defaults are neither deleterious nor harmful to the market. Rather, the bank or title insurer reclaims the property and has the opportunity to recoup any lost costs without losing the secured collateral of the property.

Likewise, there's another glaring problem with the article: California's property markets have been horrendously inflated for the better part of a decade. A million dollar property in California is not extravagant by most measures. They are, in point of fact, rather synonymous with $300-400,000 properties in most of the country. As a small example, the 1812 square foot house on .3 acres of land I own in Modesto, California (god that place sucks) cost me around $430,000 in 2002.

Finally, the article suffers from a glaring lack of rhetorical neutrality. Indeed, the author appeals to the perceived Rich Poor Gap dialog intentionally, using it to give emotional credence to an argument filled with suspect facts and a real data sample of 43 mortgages within a single incorporated community.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:48 pm 
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Owned by the sources material again?

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:55 pm 
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Khross wrote:
More to the point, strategic defaults are neither deleterious nor harmful to the market. Rather, the bank or title insurer reclaims the property and has the opportunity to recoup any lost costs without losing the secured collateral of the property.


A view, I suspect, which is far more common among wealthy people than among middle class homeowners. This specific article aside, I would be shocked if wealthy people, who generally have more experience as investors, didn't take a more amoral, "it's just business" view of strategic default than middle class people. And frankly, I see nothing wrong with that. The banks get the collateral they bargained for and can (depending on the state) sue for shortfall costs if they want. If they wanted more protection than that, they should have negotiated it into the mortgage.


Last edited by RangerDave on Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:57 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
More to the point, strategic defaults are neither deleterious nor harmful to the market. Rather, the bank or title insurer reclaims the property and has the opportunity to recoup any lost costs without losing the secured collateral of the property.


A view, I suspect, which is far more common among wealthy people than among middle class homeowners. This specific article aside, I would be shocked if wealthy people, who generally have more experience as investors, didn't take a more amoral, "it's just business" view of strategic default than middle class people.
It's about an investment, of course it's "just business". It's either "just business" or it's personal.

Folks that feel a personal attachment to things ... shouldn't. While you might think it's amoral, emotional attachments to physical objects is insane.

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Last edited by Taskiss on Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:58 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
A view, I suspect, which is far more common among wealthy people than among middle class homeowners. This specific article aside, I would be shocked if wealthy people, who generally have more experience as investors, didn't take a more amoral, "it's just business" view of strategic default than middle class people.
Arguments about what constitutes the middle class aside, that's because the individuals you mention are not investing in property for returns. It's prudent to note that among the single home owning segment of our population, which is by far and away the majority of home owners, the investment is not monetary. Property is not a vehicle for return but a vehicle for security. Consequently, the investment is far more psychological and intangible than what we're discussing here.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:02 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
It's about an investment, of course it's "just business". It's either "just business" or it's personal.


Agreed, as my edit is intended to clarify. My point, though, is that I find middle class people are much more likely to claim there's a moral obligation, above and beyond any contractual obligation, to make your mortgage payments. It's about "keeping your word" and so on. Rich people, in my experience, are less likely to buy into such a view.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:04 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Arguments about what constitutes the middle class aside, that's because the individuals you mention are not investing in property for returns. It's prudent to note that among the single home owning segment of our population, which is by far and away the majority of home owners, the investment is not monetary. Property is not a vehicle for return but a vehicle for security. Consequently, the investment is far more psychological and intangible than what we're discussing here.


Aye, I don't disagree. I just thought it was worth noting that whatever shortcomings there are in Monte's article, the basic picture it paints of "rich" people being more likely to engage in strategic default strikes me as entirely plausible and even probable.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:17 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
Arguments about what constitutes the middle class aside, that's because the individuals you mention are not investing in property for returns. It's prudent to note that among the single home owning segment of our population, which is by far and away the majority of home owners, the investment is not monetary. Property is not a vehicle for return but a vehicle for security. Consequently, the investment is far more psychological and intangible than what we're discussing here.


Aye, I don't disagree. I just thought it was worth noting that whatever shortcomings there are in Monte's article, the basic picture it paints of "rich" people being more likely to engage in strategic default strikes me as entirely plausible and even probable.

The corollary then needs to be recognized as worth noting, in my opinion - "poor" people make piss-poor decisions about their money. That's probably why they're poor.

That's probably not politically correct though, in this day and age of demonizing those with more affluence than the average.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:20 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Khross wrote:
More to the point, strategic defaults are neither deleterious nor harmful to the market. Rather, the bank or title insurer reclaims the property and has the opportunity to recoup any lost costs without losing the secured collateral of the property.


A view, I suspect, which is far more common among wealthy people than among middle class homeowners. This specific article aside, I would be shocked if wealthy people, who generally have more experience as investors, didn't take a more amoral, "it's just business" view of strategic default than middle class people. And frankly, I see nothing wrong with that. The banks get the collateral they bargained for and can (depending on the state) sue for shortfall costs if they want. If they wanted more protection than that, they should have negotiated it into the mortgage.


Except the issue is that the way the banks "deal" with this kind of issue spills over into the other markets, namely those who don't have the disposable cash to purchase homes as investment properties. The bank spreads those kinds of losses throughout their structure, increasing fees and interest rates across the board to cover the costs.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 3:36 pm 
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Poor Nicolas Cage :cry:

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 7:31 pm 
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I'm not sure what fractions of the base have to do with anything, really.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics, as it were.

I give loans out to 7 purchasers of $1 million homes. 1 defaults. I'm out $1 million.
I give out loans to 120 purchasers of $100,000 homes. 10 default. I'm out $1 million dollars.

Show me how 1/7 in that scenario was worse than 1/12? Ah, that's right... it isn't.


The only way that it could be worse that 1/7 default is if $1 million dollar homes are sold at the ratio of 17 to 1 over $100,000 homes, which obviously is altered as any other home under the arbitrary $1 million cutoff is provided a loan.

In other words... fat chance.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 8:20 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
Show me how 1/7 in that scenario was worse than 1/12?


I believe the point of the article is that the higher default rate among the "rich" shows that they, not the "middle class", are the more immoral and irresponsible group.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 8:37 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
DFK! wrote:
Show me how 1/7 in that scenario was worse than 1/12?


I believe the point of the article is that the higher default rate among the "rich" shows that they, not the "middle class", are the more immoral and irresponsible group.



Perhaps, (but not granted) and that isn't the point of the thread. The point of the thread is that the rich people are at fault for the mortgage crisis.


However, let's grant that the point of the thread itself is that the so-called rich, (which is biased language, a more neutral term would be "million-dollar mortgage holders") have a greater likelihood to default than all other mortgage-holders. So what? What conclusion are we to draw from that? That the rich are somehow less moral?

That's a reasonable conclusion, except for the absence of any other corroborating evidence. In effect, it is a non-sequitur for any conclusion except what the evidence directly shows: those holding mortgages of $1 million and up are statistically and currently more likely to be "seriously delinquent" than those holding mortgages under $1 million.

Anything other conclusion is a failure of proper logical thought.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 12, 2010 6:42 am 
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So the moral of the story is that we can fix the economy by giving tax-breaks and credits to the "rich" so that they stop defaulting?

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Hopwin wrote:
So the moral of the story is that we can fix the economy by giving tax-breaks and credits to the "rich" so that they stop defaulting?

Nope, the moral of the story is that "it's all about jobs", no matter how little that is being discussed.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 12, 2010 7:12 am 
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RangerDave wrote:
DFK! wrote:
Show me how 1/7 in that scenario was worse than 1/12?
I believe the point of the article is that the higher default rate among the "rich" shows that they, not the "middle class", are the more immoral and irresponsible group.
So, you mean the article is a bullshit piece of yellow journalism misrepresenting facts in an attempt to create an emotional response?

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 12, 2010 7:20 am 
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Khross wrote:
RangerDave wrote:
I believe the point of the article is that the higher default rate among the "rich" shows that they, not the "middle class", are the more immoral and irresponsible group.
So, you mean the article is a bullshit piece of yellow journalism misrepresenting facts in an attempt to create an emotional response?

Yeah, RD was very consistent in characterizing the issue as one of moral failure. It's the progressive way of looking at things, obviously. Sorta like "Greed is good" if it's the government taking from the rich.

This may as well have been what this democrat controlled congress wrote:
Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures, the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge, has marked the upward surge of mankind and greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the U.S.A.

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