RangerDave wrote:
I see. So, you assumed that I was arguing in support of Aizle's view of Obama's record, rather than simply pointing out a specific weakness in your argument, even though I made no reference whatsoever to Obama or Aizle and instead simply quoted and commented on your specific statement about the balance of power in Congress. Ok, I can see how that assumption was reasonable, but it was mistaken. I do partially agree with Aizle's position, but I wasn't commenting on it one way or the other in this thread. I was addressing your point about Congress, which is why I quoted and referred to it and it alone.
Fair enough. You lose certain things utilizing text over real speech.
RD wrote:
Anyway, setting aside the meta-argument, my substantive point was and is that assigning total responsibility for everything that happens in Congress to the Dems because it's "mathematically impossible" for the Reps to block legislation if the Dems all vote in unison is so unrealistic as to be analytically worthless. It's numerically correct but practically and politically irrelevant. The actual state of play in the Senate is: virtually all the Dems try to pass X, virtually all the Reps try to block X, and a handful of each swing back and forth. So, if you want to accurately capture that dynamic in a description, when the handful swings to the Dems' side, you say the Dems succeeded in passing X, with so-and-so crossing the aisle to join them, and when that handful swings to the Reps side, you say the Reps succeeded in blocking X, with so-and-so crossing the aisle to join them. Pretending near-total Republican opposition is irrelevant and success or failure is all on the Dems because they have a 60-member caucus is misleading at best.
[underline mine]
Unfortunately, though, this point is still incorrect. It is called a supermajority for a reason. The Republican elements of the legislature literally
cannot push legislation by virtue of mathematics, and they cannot
block legislation for the same reason.
Let's look at basic methods by whichs something could be blocked:
In committee: The majority of the Democratic party is large enough that all committees of which I'm aware have Republicans significantly outnumbered, so nothing can be "held up in committee."
By a failure in the house: IIRC, the Republicans have 178 seats, the Democrats have 255. In order for the Republicans to be able to block anything by themselves, then, 68 Democrats would have to abstain.
By filibuster: The Republicans have 41 seats in the Senate, 1 more than necessary to keep and maintain a filibuster.
By a failure in the Senate: Again, the Republicans have only 41 seats, so 16 Democrats would have to abstain in order for the Republicans to block anything by themselves.
In other words, the
only way the Republicans can block something unilaterally is through parliamentary voting against cessation of filibuster. You've stated twice now that you do not believe the assumption of parliamentary voting is realistic. As such, voting against cessation of filibuster would
require Democratic party support.
In other words, stating that "[mean and nasty] Republican obstructionism is at fault" as Aizle did is equally fallacious to what you're saying, that, essentially, "near-total Republican opposition is relevant to whether measures pass or fail." As I've demonstrated above, this is absolutely untrue.
Being untrue, to continue to claim otherwise indicates, to me, a willful attempt to deceive.
RD wrote:
Incidentally, this also applies to the "bipartisan" label pundits and politicians like to kick around. When the Dems claim a bill has "bipartisan" support because 1 or 2 Reps are willing to vote for it, or when the Reps claim there's "bipartisan" opposition because 1 or 2 Dems join them in opposing it, I think any reasonable and honest observer should call bullsh*t. Sure, such claims are "mathematically" correct, but they're still b.s. in a practical sense.
I concur, but where are we to find reasonable and honest observers, given that I'm inferring you mean members of the 4th Estate when you say "observers."