Noggel wrote:
So... the general consensus is that this won't lead to anything, and is indeed just one of the more egregious offenses that will be (for lack of a better term) tolerated in the name of non-escalation?
If this normally would be a casus belli for most countries, why is NK an exception? Seoul's proximity to the NK border and its artillery?
That is a major part of it. The fear is heavily of the use of chemical weapons, and the fact that a lot of these sites are hardened and would be very difficult to destroy at any point other than when the gun is actually firing.
There's also the impact that winning the war (and SK would definitely win any full-scale war) would have on the SK economy. NK is an utter mess and the funds to fix it are a matter of serious concern to the South Koreans. Reunification could be an economic disaster even without a war.
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Is there perhaps a hope that when Kim Jong Il passes, the country will wisen up some? It seems like there has to be some time these incidents come to an end, and if NK won't stop then someone likely should stop them, but it seems quite unlikely Kim Jong Il will be around all that much longer so I can see that waiting is a viable option at this point.
There's a hope, but that's it - a hope. NK is such a closed society that getting any sort of internal political pulse is chancy at best.
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Seeing as how there is no rush, it seems to me that SK can build extensive shelters in Seoul (if they haven't already -- I'm a bit surprised a quick search turned up nothing of the sort) and plan something to take out and otherwise minimize NK's threat to the city. I'm sure much more well-informed people than I have looked this scenario over though. I'm sure there would be pretty substantial damages and loss of life, certainly moreso than these 46 sailors, and with this Cheonan incident not going away it seems more and more that there is some call to putting an end to these incidents even at that cost. Not to mention miscellaneous other positive results like a united Korea and an improvement in life for most of the NK population.
I'm sure Seoul has lots of shelters that would be perfectly adequate to protect citizens against high explosive and chemical agents, aside from those killed before they could get to the shelters. The real damage would be to infrastructure and from the essential shutting down of the city while it's decontaminated. Persistent chemical agents can last up to 48 hours under the right conditions and if NK could re-seed that at all, the problems of economic loss and the logistics of caring for people in shelters would quickly surpass initial casualties in terms of being a burden on the country.
Planning to take out NK artillery is something that goes on almost constantly, I'm sure. However the simple fact is that there's a lot of it, and the really big stuff that can reach Seoul is well-hardened. That's either an ass-load of painful infantry work, an ass-load of airstrikes with specialized and expensive munitions, or a fair number of nukes, which would have to be ground-burst and therefore produce a hell of a lot of fallout. None of these options is very palatable.
Keep in mind that while a united Korea and benefits to the poor of NK sound great to us, we're not the SK that has to deal with the problems. That's their financial future at stake there, not ours (although we'd be effected since they're a huge trading partner).
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I suppose it's a complex enough situation without even mentioning China...
China is a complication, but they aren't ruled by Mao with his paranoia about American invasion anymore issuing ultimatums and overestimating his army's ability to execute them, we don't have a MacArthur antagonizing them, and they've got a lot more to lose. Mao was casually dismissive of American nuclear arms, feeling that his massive population could have simply absorbed them. Disregarding the overptomisim and callousness of this view, he did have a point about China's relative lack of industrial targets at that time. They have a lot more to lose now, both from possible damage, and from damage to their export markets. Not only that, they've shown signs of being entirely fed up with the Kim dynasty.