The Glade 4.0

Really? Academic economists basically do their research for free at this point. And most of the peer reviewed inspections of the economic climate are ... grim to say the least. More to the point, Moody's is under fire for the Lehman Brothers and AIG situation; and Blinder is responsible for a lot of the policy coming out of Washington. Both have a vested interest in making things sound as positive as possible, especially since they're rejecting empirical analyses.

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It most certainly does not. We are no longer in a recession, but that does not mean we have fully recovered. Nor did the article or study in question make that argument. The argument made was simple - without the government intervention in the late part of the Bush administration and the Obama administration, we would be in the throes of a true depression.

I think our current state bolsters the argument that we need to do more, and we needed to do more initially.

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It feels like all the people who want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans.
---The Daily Show

Ummmm, we're still in a recession. The economy is still contracting, as evidenced by increasing numbers of unemployed individuals. No matter what hoodoo the current Administration uses to claim Job Growth, the reality is that the job market is still shrinking and the institutional work force continues to decline at a rate greater than the country has experience in at least 35 years. The economic situation has no green shoots; Paul Krugman is now calling Depression, as is Tyler Cowen. The opinion in your original post is an outlying position even among Administration friendly economists.

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Why exactly would we want to avoid a recession in the first place? Do you really think it's possible to never have one?

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"Hysterical children shrieking about right-wing anything need to go sit in the corner and be quiet while the adults are talking."

Yeah, making a big deal out of "we're not losing as many as fast as before!" is hardly a ringing endorsement of the economic situation. I've noticed that the job contraction is measured in pure numbers, not percentages of the total.

That said, I've still seen worse times within my lifetime.

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In time, this too shall pass.

That's because they suck. If they knew anything about economics they would have figured out how to make money at it.



I've read some either way - I'm not sure I'd classify either direction as "most", but I'm not keeping score.



/shrug - don't know anything about these guys. You may be right. Still, I don't think that just because you get paid to do your job, that you're automatically a shill for your industry.

No, we are not.

We have had six straight months of positive economic growth. That's not a recession. The economy is not contracting, it's growing. Granted, it's growing at a relatively anemic rate, but you and I both know that current economic conditions do not fit the definition of a recession. When GDP falls for two straight quarters, you will have a leg to stand on. Until then, let's not fantasize.

Businesses have seen their incomes increase a great deal, as well. They just aren't hiring. They are sitting on the money. We have seen a trendline of positive job growth as well, but slower than it needs to be to finally break through. The US auto industry is profitable again, and it added 55,000 jobs. It's numbers are looking great, and before too long we might even turn a profit on our investment in GM.

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It feels like all the people who want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans.
---The Daily Show

Well, if you believe the conservatives that say downturns are caused by the Federal Reserve and not being on a gold standard.....

Xeq, are you sure you're not confusing "the conservatives'" view of *bubbles* with recessions?

'Cause I don't think I've ever heard of anybody who thinks that the Fed is the cause of recessions. Recessions (the contracting portion of an expand and contract cycle) happen naturally as supply and demand swing back and forth.

Bubbles, on the other hand, are what happens when external pressures (like the Fed) get in the way, temporarily, of supply and demand seeking equilibrium. And when the 'temporarily' ends, the bubble pops (and frequently causes a recession, and a worse one than would otherwise have occurred, as the system corrects sharply).

That doesn't mean that recessions wouldn't happen in the absence of the Fed. At best, it means the Fed is good at trading normal recessions for fewer, but very nasty, ones.

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"Aaaah! Emotions are weird!" - Amdee
"... Mirrorshades prevent the forces of normalcy from realizing that one is crazed and possibly dangerous. They are the symbol of the sun-staring visionary, the biker, the rocker, the policeman, and similar outlaws." - Bruce Sterling, preface to Mirrorshades

Demonstrate, and denine this. Explain why your indicators are correct.



Explain what a recession is, explain how your indicators are an absolute.



What is an economy? What is growing? What would contraction be?



Define recession to an economic certainty and concencus. Demonstrate perameteres. Show growth.



Talk about GDP as more than three letters. Why is GDP a valid indicator? What does GDP represent?



Fantasize about what? Show your work.



Show your work.



Show your work.



In what markets?



By what metric?



Demonstrate how.

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

Do you need an introduction to basic economic concepts? Do you understand the concept of GDP and how it's measured? Or are you just harping from the sidelines because you think I'm unable to define it?




I never said anything about absolutes. However, we do measure GDP, and we do so based on a great many indicators. Those indicators combine to give an overall picture of the economy. In the last six months, we have seen positive economic growth, despite high unemployment.

A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. You can't have a recession if you are in a period of growth, let alone one that lasts for six months. Do I need to post a chart or something, or can we just agree that we have seen GDP growth for the past six months and leave it at that? I assure you, I'm correct about it.



Oh, you don't have a basic understanding of some fundamental economic concepts. Now your questions make sense. The Economy, in the context of our discussion, is the aggregate total of consumption in a given time period, more or less. So, all goods and services purchased and sold within a given time period. In other words, GDP. GDP is made up of several factors - consumption, government spending, gross investment (purchase of new plant and equipment), and net exports.

An increase in GDP is called "growth". A decrease in GDP is called "contraction". Two consecutive quarters of contraction is called a "recession". In the last six months, we have seen GDP grow.

Now, there is something called a "growth recession" in which growth is less than then generally agreed upon target of 3% or so. However, that is *not* a true recession. It's simply anemic growth.




I have done so.



See above. GDP is *the* indicator of recession/growth. It's a measure of the overall economy, in aggregate. There are people who dismiss this measure, but they are waaaaaaaaaay out on the fringe economically.

.



Bob Herbert writes about it in the NYT this morning. Basically, businesses have reduced employment rolls in disproportion to the actual economic crisis, and are now sitting on nearly two trillion in cash as a result. Despite increases in productivity, there has been no increase in their payrolls nor in the amount they are paying. In other words, they are choking as much profit out of their employees as they can wrap their grubby little fingers around.




Overall, Rynar. You do understand the concept of the macro economy, right? I don't mind giving you a refresher course, but at some point, you need to go hunt down your old text books.



Now you are just being obtuse. If you care to actually refute what I am saying, do so. I don't need to hold your hand.

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It feels like all the people who want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans.
---The Daily Show

Demonstrate, explain, define, question et al...

Internet forum equivalent of the "death by a thousand cuts". It's what folks do when they can't do anything else, I suppose. I don't see it accomplishing anything, but hey! It's an internet forum! Nothing'll be accomplished anyway.



Only here, it takes forever.

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In time, this too shall pass.

Montegue:

Really? You're going to tell me inventory accumulation of immobile goods counts as growth? That's the lie the Administration is using to claim positive GDP despite currency values that aren't keeping up with inflation. Real purchasing power is declining, all but 2 job sectors continue to lose labor on a month to month basis, and overall employment and the work force continues to shrink. Foreclosures are continuing to climb, invading even relatively stable small markets and rural areas (regional farms are getting hit). And real wages are shrinking at a rate faster than at any point during the Bush Administration.

So, tell me, how is the recession over if all the real economic indicators of recovery are non-existent or getting worse? Because the BLS says we had 2 quarters of questionably positive GDP growth? That's just horseshit. You don't know what growth is. Money is still leaving circulation, employment is still contracting, and production is still down. Consumer confidence is through the floor, credit ability is contracting again, and all of the Administrations Demand Shift policies have caused more harm than good. The Housing Market is already double dipping with May and June of 2010 being the two worst months in the last 80 years. And, surprise, surprise, but foreclosures on first year mortgages are up between 70 and 90% depending on who you want to use as a source.

The recession is not over, and any attempt to say otherwise is hoodoo.

Arathain:

There's a difference between getting paid to do your job and getting paid because your job depends on a positive economic outlook. Zindi and Blinder are both shilling for the Administration. Economists who say the situation is getting better are either blind, compromised, or just incompetent. The Euro Sector is collapsing under debt pressures, which means Germany likely to be in the next 2 or 3 nations to fall into a major liquidity crisis. Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal are already ****. The Balkan nations are going to get hammered soon as well. The United Kingdom is already in a liquidity crisis, and China has no more money to lend. I've read all the reports of green shots and improvement, and those reports are just balderdash.

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"Hello, Mr. Pot, there's a Mr. Kettle on line one."

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"Dress cops up as soldiers, give them military equipment, train them in military tactics, tell them they’re fighting a ‘war,’ and the consequences are predictable." —Radley Balko

I've got quite the handle on economics, thanks. At least that's what the major financial company who recently recruited and then hired me thinks.

I've just gotten tired of reading Monte's plagiarism, and hoped to get him to try and understand the stuff he cut/pastes. When in the realm of economics one makes a number of unsubstantiated claims, calls for points of order, presents bold new theory, and chastises people who know what they are talking about without citation or merit while at same time speaks of having no skill in, or understanding of, mathematics it brings one to wonder exactly how he can make such bold claims, as if he could possibly understand what the hell he is talking about, as opposed to searching out some hackery which best suits his ideology, and constructing his plagiarism around it. He vacates threads as a matter of course when it becomes apparent to all that he has no original thought, and can't cut and paste his way through his argument. It's getting old. It was about time he was called on it in a line by line manner, which he could not respond to in a way which invalidates my critique of him. He is a liar, a sham, and worst of all plagerist (and not even a discerning one, at that.). As if to make matters worse, he will attempt to invalidate this post as an unmeritorious attack, rather than attempt to deal with the content, as he owns nothing even approaching intellectual honesty.

I, for one, would love to read some posts, and hold debate here with someone who actually understands what Monte cuts and pastes, but Monte isn't him, and he should stop pretending to be.

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Ezekiel 23:19-20 

It's all about jobs, stupid!™

Want to talk recovery to the folks who don't have a job? WTF are the liberals doing these days, just forgetting the common man?

Get a clue Monte. Don't talk **** 'till the fat lady has a job. I had always suspected you're just a democrat shill, now I know for sure. You don't give a damn about folks, you just care about politics.

Yeah, the recession is over... my ***. Oh, it's been worse in my lifetime, but talk about how things are getting better when folks are still unemployed in numbers not seen in over 30 years is what gave you away.

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In time, this too shall pass.

That very well may be. Like I said, I don't know these guys in particular.



I wouldn't go that far. I tend to disagree with them, but I think you're assessment of them is a bit strong.

I kid, I kid.

Lol, nice one Ara.

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"Dress cops up as soldiers, give them military equipment, train them in military tactics, tell them they’re fighting a ‘war,’ and the consequences are predictable." —Radley Balko

Me, I'd just like my conservative 401(k) to not lose money some quarter.

I don't see the economy improving, but hey, I'm in Kaleeforneea with the Austrian running things, or at least thinking he does.

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The U. S. Constitution doesn't guarantee happiness, only the pursuit of it. You have to catch up with it yourself. B. Franklin

"A mind needs books like a sword needs a whetstone." -- Tyrion Lannister, A Game of Thrones

Ditto. I am about as diversified as can be and the damn thing just hemorrhages cash at the slightest downtick. Never seems to make a damn penny.

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Anybody suppose it's possible that Monty isn't actually one person? Perhaps the login is used by maybe half a dozen different KoS boys, including the original Monty. That's why he seemingly has no remembrance of getting pwned in previous economic threads.

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The Dude abides.

Monty doesn't remember getting owned in previous economic threads because the way he remembers it, he conclusively proved all of the administration's claims and the rest of you are just a bunch of stubborn ******* Bush supporters who refuse to see facts.

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Buckle your pants or they might fall down.

Hanlon's Razor - Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Remember who we're talking about... reading comprehension isn't his strong suite, and that's when he actually makes an attempt to comprehend what others have posted.

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In time, this too shall pass.