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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:00 am 
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http://chicagobreakingbusiness.com/2010/09/economic-panel-says-recession-ended-in-june-2009.html

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Economic panel says recession ended in June 2009
By CNN
Posted Monday at 10:24 a.m.

The Great Recession ended in June 2009, according to the body charged with dating when economic downturns begin and end. But the news comes amid rising fears of a double-dip recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent group of economists, released a statement Monday saying economic data now clearly points to the economy turning higher last summer. That makes the 18-month recession that started in December 2007 the longest and deepest downturn for the U.S. economy since the Great Depression.

The NBER acknowledged the risk of double-dip recession in its statement, but said “The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.”

The committee that made the finding said it “did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.” Rather, it decided that June was when the economy hit bottom, and that it has been slowly but steadily growing since then.

“Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion,” said the NBER.

Most economists have been saying for months that the recession likely ended in the summer of 2009. But the NBER typically takes a long time to declare the start and end of recessions, waiting for all the economic data to be revised and finalized and making sure that any change in direction of the economy is long-lasting. It didn’t declare that the recession started in December of 2007 until a year later.

But Monday’s announcement comes at a time when there is growing concern among many economists that the U.S. economy is in danger of slipping into another downturn, a so-called double-dip recession. Measures of economic growth, hiring and other signs of recovery have all weakened in recent months.

Double-dip recessions are relative rare. The last one occurred in the United States when the 1980 recession was followed by another in 1981-82. The NBER waited until July 1981 to declare the end of the 1980 recession, which turned out to be the same month that it eventually determined the next recession had begun.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 7:04 am 
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The recession was over before June of 2009, but not because we're in a recovery.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:52 am 
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So George Bush fixed the econemy and Obama is exploiting the situation to advance the liberal agenda that's been chomping at the bit for a better part of 100 years.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:04 am 
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Hannibal wrote:
So George Bush fixed the econemy and Obama is exploiting the situation to advance the liberal agenda that's been chomping at the bit for a better part of 100 years.
George Bush did very little but make the economy worse every year during his 8 years in office. Fixing the American Economy won't happen any time soon, because people are just stupid. Of course, Obama persists in making it more difficult to fix the economy, but that's ok. It'll just make things a lot worse for everyone.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:10 am 
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Recession being over =/ fixing the economy.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:06 pm 
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The recession isn't over and wasn't over in June of 2009.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:18 pm 
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Khross wrote:
The recession isn't over and wasn't over in June of 2009.

Nah, the recession is over. Now it is full blown depression.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:36 pm 
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Khross wrote:
The recession was over before June of 2009, but not because we're in a recovery.


Khross wrote:
The recession isn't over and wasn't over in June of 2009.


Am I high?

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:38 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
Khross wrote:
The recession was over before June of 2009, but not because we're in a recovery.


Khross wrote:
The recession isn't over and wasn't over in June of 2009.


Am I high?


Not sure, but Khross is often well-medicated. :)

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:42 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
Khross wrote:
The recession was over before June of 2009, but not because we're in a recovery.


Khross wrote:
The recession isn't over and wasn't over in June of 2009.


Am I high?
Eh, not really. I'm just trying to drive home the point that any talk of a recovery is foolish banter that should be stamped out with great prejudice.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:51 pm 
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Khross wrote:
The recession isn't over and wasn't over in June of 2009.


I agree with you, but I believe that per the standard (fairly useless) definition, it is.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 1:19 pm 
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Arathain:

You should really check the "official numbers" used for the "standard definition" ...

Since the Q2 2010 Revisions pushed every quarter in 2009 into the negative, and the Q3 2010 Revisions will push Q1 2010 negative.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2010 8:37 am 
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I like what Warren Buffet said on the recession.

Quote:
BECKY: The NBER said this week that the recession officially ended back in June of last year.

BUFFETT: Well, they define it differently. (Laughs.) But I, I mean, I define it, I think we're in a recession until real per capita GDP gets back up to where it was before. That is not the way the National Bureau of Economic Research measures it. But I will tell you that to any, on any common sense definition, the average American is below where he was before, or his family, in terms of real income, GDP. We're still in a recession. And, and we're not gonna be out of it for awhile, but we will get out of it.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2010 9:06 am 
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If economists were cartographers, the valley would end when you crossed the river. From there on, it's mountain, baby.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 1:17 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Hopwin wrote:
Khross wrote:
The recession was over before June of 2009, but not because we're in a recovery.


Khross wrote:
The recession isn't over and wasn't over in June of 2009.


Am I high?
Eh, not really. I'm just trying to drive home the point that any talk of a recovery is foolish banter that should be stamped out with great prejudice.

It's all about jobs.

You and I talked about this subject a couple of years ago, if memory serves, and you disagreed with my assertion.

I still believe it. As long as there's a job for those that want to work that'll pay for what folks need, there's really not much of a problem. Once needs are met, we can argue all we want about the state of the desires.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 1:24 pm 
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Taskiss:

Except, the jobs that exist in the United States aren't useful jobs. They aren't even economically beneficial for the most part; hence, we have the hilarious term "Service Economy." That said, the United States doesn't need anymore jobs and isn't likely to get any more jobs until population size dictates a larger workforce. The situation may be complex, but at least one of the competing corrections taking place aims itself at the over-employment of the last 35 years.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 1:56 pm 
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It's all a cycle, feast and famine. I have focused on identifying opportunity in my life and I gotta tell you, I still see plenty, and I've seen and experienced worse than this.

As long as people can physically survive, there are those that will thrive and those that will wither. "We the physically average" pretty much get to pick which side of that equation we fall on for ourselves...that means doing what it takes - working at a job - or not. Nobody I know was ever handed the brass ring, as far as I know. I've heard there are folks that have, but nobody has ever fallen over themselves wanting to hand me anything. All I need is a job - the firm grasp on the first rung of the ladder - and I'm good to go. If I want it, I gotta get it on my own, and that still works, for now.

We may be in the midst of chaos, but as long as there's a way to survive long enough to figure out a plan and put it into effect, it'll all turn out OK. It's a matter of wash, rinse, repeat 'till we succeed, at that point. There are ways to claw one's way up the ladder.

It's all about getting a good grip on the ladder, and that takes a job.

I do believe I see where you are coming from, and I think we're looking at this from different perspectives...mine is strictly personal.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 2:05 pm 
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Except the jobs you're taking hurt your children and everyone else in the long run. The U.S. economy is built on eroding shale at this point in time. Serious changes in behavior need to occur at all levels.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 2:57 pm 
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Khross, you know The Boy Who Cried Wolf?

People have been talking about how horrible things are since time began. Every once in a while, there's actually a wolf, but most of the time there's not.

All of the time, however, most people are tired of, and dissmissive of, the alarmism.

Oh, and:

Khross wrote:
Except the jobs you're taking hurt your children


Won't somebody please THINK ABOUT THE CHILDREN!!!


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 3:06 pm 
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Arathain:

There's nothing alarmist about my post. Service economies are deleterious; over-employment causes the same problem all other demand shift policies and actions cause; and the U.S. Economy is still failing to produce material goods that actually redirect the majority of their profits into domestic circulation.

So, what's alarmist about discussing the problematic realities of our current economic situation? Because the president says we're in a recovery? Because people think more jobs are the solution because that's the only solution they know?

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 4:03 pm 
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Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Khross, you know The Boy Who Cried Wolf?

People have been talking about how horrible things are since time began. Every once in a while, there's actually a wolf, but most of the time there's not.

All of the time, however, most people are tired of, and dissmissive of, the alarmism.

Oh, and:

Khross wrote:
Except the jobs you're taking hurt your children


Won't somebody please THINK ABOUT THE CHILDREN!!!


If only he'd been a lot less correct to date, then you might have a leg to stand on. Khross has been far more on the money on this issue than your dismissiveness.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 4:12 pm 
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Khross wrote:
Arathain:

There's nothing alarmist about my post. Service economies are deleterious; over-employment causes the same problem all other demand shift policies and actions cause; and the U.S. Economy is still failing to produce material goods that actually redirect the majority of their profits into domestic circulation.

So, what's alarmist about discussing the problematic realities of our current economic situation? Because the president says we're in a recovery? Because people think more jobs are the solution because that's the only solution they know?


I didn't say your post was alarmist.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 4:13 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Khross, you know The Boy Who Cried Wolf?

People have been talking about how horrible things are since time began. Every once in a while, there's actually a wolf, but most of the time there's not.

All of the time, however, most people are tired of, and dissmissive of, the alarmism.

Oh, and:

Khross wrote:
Except the jobs you're taking hurt your children


Won't somebody please THINK ABOUT THE CHILDREN!!!


If only he'd been a lot less correct to date, then you might have a leg to stand on. Khross has been far more on the money on this issue than your dismissiveness.


Considering I made no judgement on the validity of his statements, I think you should reconsider your post.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:33 pm 
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Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Considering I made no judgement on the validity of his statements, I think you should reconsider your post.



Bull.

You made no explicit judgment on the validity of Khross' statements. What you did do was make passive dismissals and derisive implications regarding his statements, so I don't really need to reconsider anything.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 6:21 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Considering I made no judgement on the validity of his statements, I think you should reconsider your post.



Bull.

You made no explicit judgment on the validity of Khross' statements. What you did do was make passive dismissals and derisive implications regarding his statements, so I don't really need to reconsider anything.


Considering that, in general, I agree with him, you're completely off base. But by all means, please tell me what I think and what I am dismissing. :roll: That said, my statement is valid - people in general are tired of hearing that the sky is falling.


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