The Glade 4.0

So, a lot of this doom and gloom is playing out to be a lot of wolf crying. When the market tanked, everyone blamed Obama and his policies. Now its back up around 10k. The dollar is declining, and people are absolutely convinced that it's dead. I doubt that's going to play out that way, either. Unemployment is bad, and likely to be bad for a while, but it will turn around as the economy, which was also predicted to destroy the country entirely, continues to turn around and get better.

So let me ask this - if the country turns the ship around and gets back to a place of economic prosperity, will you guys change your mind on the policies you have so furiously opposed?

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It feels like all the people who want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans.
---The Daily Show

Monte:

You self-admittedly don't understand enough about economics to say that this "doom and gloom" is "wolf crying." The stock market is not the end-all be-all indicator of the economy, and all the evidence posts to a general investing bubble that's about to explode. Price/Earnings Ratios (P/ER) spike before downturns. The P/ER average for the major stock indices are through the roof right now. They are, in fact, aberrant at the moment.

And, for the record, no one is laying all of this at Obama's feet. Everyone is, however, challenging his ill informed decision to continue tax-and-spend policies and the credit leveraged economy.

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Ad Hom attack, Khross. What I know or do not know about economics has nothing to do with my argument or it's validity. What I observe is a series of conservative predictions about dire consequences for the US and the world *not* coming to pass. The market is back up, economic indicators are predicting a turnaround, job loss numbers are slowly getting better - stuff is turning around and maybe even getting back on track.

So when people wring their hands about the dollar being dead, I am not terribly compelled to believe them.

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It feels like all the people who want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans.
---The Daily Show

I'm loving this...the final payment for our cruise in January comes out this week, and the CAD is almost at par with the USD again.

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Well Ali Baba had them forty thieves, Scheherezade had a thousand tales
But master you in luck 'cause up your sleeves you got a brand of magic never fails...
...Mister Aladdin, sir, What will your pleasure be?
Let me take your order, Jot it down -You ain't never had a friend like me
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The market is not the economy as Khross pointed out. The market can be up in an economic downturn and vice versa. "Economic indicators" is a broad category. Some economic indicators are looking better, some worse. It depends on what you use as an indicator. Job loss numbers aren't getting any better, on the other hand. Employment, even by the government's numbers, hasn't stopped. And I think Khross and others have showed how flawed government unemployment statistics are. This has nothing to do with who the president is. This happened under both Bush and Obama and both have shown a willingness to pursue bad economic policies.

The dollar isn't dead, but it isn't doing well. When inflation hits double digits next year, much like it did under Carter, you'll start to see how badly the dollar really is doing. We're printing too much money and creating an incredibly weak currency. Other countries are moving away from dollar-denominated investments, for instance. That's a good indicator the dollar has weakened a great deal. Will it collapse? I don't know, but we're sure following the formula for disaster. I wouldn't be shocked to see us default on debt eventually or at least have our AAA bond rating changed.

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Well Ali Baba had them forty thieves, Scheherezade had a thousand tales
But master you in luck 'cause up your sleeves you got a brand of magic never fails...
...Mister Aladdin, sir, What will your pleasure be?
Let me take your order, Jot it down -You ain't never had a friend like me
█ ♣ █

Ienan - Job numbers have outpaced predictions in five of the last six weeks. In other words, they *are* doing better than expected. That's a good sign. There are many economic indicators that seem to be indicating that we are doing better than the doomsayers predict. As such, I am having a hard time agreeing with more doomsaying.

Its possible that inflation will hit double digits next year. I doubt it, but it's possible. If it doesn't, will you amend your prediction?

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It feels like all the people who want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans.
---The Daily Show

Congratulations on so effectively reinforcing Khross' point.

I haven't once said that the market is the economy (although I will remind the conservatives here about their arguments regarding how Obama was failing economically based on poor market performance). There are simply many indicators that say Khross is wrong. The value of the dollar is not static. It goes up and down. It may be having some trouble now, but my guess is that it will get back on it's feet. The unemployment rate always lags behind in recovery. And it's already showing signs that it's getting better.

I think it's pretty clear that we are either out of, or getting out of, this recession. In the next couple of years, should things continue to go well and should we continue to implement good policies, we may get back to a period of sustained growth and prosperity.

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It feels like all the people who want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans.
---The Daily Show

No, it doesn't. In real recovery, job growth actually starts long before actual spending power normalizes and consumer confidence rises. Instead, the last two recessions have had jobless recoveries. The "growth period" between the 2000 Recession and the 2008 Recession was nominal and still didn't return employment levels to pre-2000 Recession levels.
No, we're simply watching false green shoots wither and die. The stock market, as an indicator, points to a second investing bubble bursting in the very near future. Business earnings continue to decline while profits shrink; yet, we're going through the beginnings of a Bull market? Bullshit. Historical indicates that P/ER Spikes like this happen before market downturns, not after,

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Predictions are a joke. I can say any prediction and then beat it. For instance, I can say the market will go up 1% in the next year and if it happens, I can say we're doing better than expected. Job numbers are bad, both under Bush and Obama. In my view, neither is to blame directly for it either. It was going to happen as the recession/depression was needed to correct the government-built bubble in housing and other sectors.

If inflation doesn't hit double digits next year, it's just being paid forward. It will need to occur eventually as the currency is being devalued everyday with low interest rates. We need to stop printing excess currency immediately. If we don't, our currency will essentially be worthless or rapid inflation will take over to make up for the bubble forming.

It's interesting how pessimistic you were during Bush and all of a sudden you're so optimistic when Obama took over when very little changed. After the bailout of the banks and the auto industry under Bush, I became quickly pessimistic and will remain so until we stop creating debt and undermining our currency for the sake of that debt.

If we do see growth in the economy, it's built on shaky economics, though. The currency issues won't go away since we've printed too much currency and our debt obligations are becoming so burdensome that we may need to default on part of it.

It is? From BLS.gov



I live in a state with the second highest unemployment rate. Its sure as hell *not* getting any better.



We are not out of the recession. We are still deep amidst it. Its not coming out, and more than likely will continue to get worse for the time being. And will get worse still when the bill for the stimulus package (which hasn't even been spent yet) comes due.

Oh, and speaking of the 800B bailout thingy? Yeah. Its done jack and ****.

http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/home.aspx

According to the government's OWN DATA, just looking at my state for example...

they've spent 15.5 MILLION dollars to create... 159 jobs. that's 97 thousand dollars PER JOB created. Just in Nevada.

I understand that there's other parts to the stimulus package, but its not the panacea you seem to think it is.

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Holy shitsnacks!

Gold continues to make nominal highs, the dollar hit a 52 week low, consumer spending hit a record % of GDP since WWII, USD is becoming a shrinking portion of the composition for international banks and reserves which will kill off Treasury purchases, Treasuries continue to go weak selling off with no sign of interest rates being raised ...

What other indicators do you want, for crying out loud?

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"It's real, grew up in trife life, the times of white lines
The hype vice, murderous nighttimes and knife fights invite crimes" - Nasir Jones

He only wants ones that agree with him.

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"...but there exists also in the human heart a depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak to attempt to lower the powerful to their own level and reduces men to prefer equality in slavery to inequality with freedom." - De Tocqueville

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“The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government.” - Thomas Paine