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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:05 pm 
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The post directly above your own here :lol:

viewtopic.php?p=124604#p124604

As to your assertion, no it really wouldn't require any conspiracy at all. Economics is about information. Companies know exactly how much they pay their employees versus the value they bring to the organization. Employees on the other hand are kept in the dark about this. You can search and find a ballpark range of salaries but CSR1 doesn't know what CSR2 is making per hour, they can only say they are within the salary range of their role and assume that CSR2 is making a "comparable" amount. So employers knowing more than the employees naturally keeps wages down without need for a conspiracy or malicious intent. Add on to that the "labor-cushion" of what has historically been a 5-6% unemployment rate and you create a permanent over-supply of labor to create enough doubt that most employees don't rock the boat.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:06 pm 
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If employees aren't paid well, they often find work elsewhere. This is why employees are usually treated fairly. People can find out fairly quickly how much they should be making nowadays. With the Internet everyone has tons of information.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:45 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
The post directly above your own here :lol:

http://www.gladerebooted.org/viewtopic. ... 04#p124604

Yup, I didn't make the connection that you were referencing an article from five days ago in a different thread. Unsurprisingly, I didn't realize that article was what you were basing your statement on; that article doesn't even come close to making the case that wages have been stagnant for 95 years. Sure, make a chart that shows income in $100,000 increments and the average wage increases don't look that all impressive (we're still on the bottom tier of wages after 93 years!!!!11!!one), but if you look at what my simple arithmetic showed, your statement is demonstrably false. :oops:


Hopwin wrote:
As to your assertion, no it really wouldn't require any conspiracy at all.


Sorry, I really cant see the merits in further discussing this when the underlying proposition has no factual basis.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 7:46 pm 
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Vindicarre wrote:
Yup, I didn't make the connection that you were referencing an article from five days ago in a different thread. Unsurprisingly, I didn't realize that article was what you were basing your statement on; that article doesn't even come close to making the case that wages have been stagnant for 95 years. Sure, make a chart that shows income in $100,000 increments and the average wage increases don't look that all impressive (we're still on the bottom tier of wages after 93 years!!!!11!!one), but if you look at what my simple arithmetic showed, your statement is demonstrably false. :oops:


The link that says your calculation didn't work? ;)


Vindicarre wrote:
Sorry, I really cant see the merits in further discussing this when the underlying proposition has no factual basis.

Which assertion would that be?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:21 pm 
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That wages have been stagnant.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:45 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
Yup, I didn't make the connection that you were referencing an article from five days ago in a different thread. Unsurprisingly, I didn't realize that article was what you were basing your statement on; that article doesn't even come close to making the case that wages have been stagnant for 95 years. Sure, make a chart that shows income in $100,000 increments and the average wage increases don't look that all impressive (we're still on the bottom tier of wages after 93 years!!!!11!!one), but if you look at what my simple arithmetic showed, your statement is demonstrably false. :oops:


The link that says your calculation didn't work? ;)



Sigh. Please, show my ignorant *** how you arrived at your destination.


Hopwin wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
Sorry, I really cant see the merits in further discussing this when the underlying proposition has no factual basis.

Which assertion would that be?

The underlying proposition is that wages have been stagnant for 95 years.
The conspiracy would be that all the non-union employers have conspired to keep wages at the level they were in 1915, despite increases in production etc. It's not as if anyone has ever looked at corporate reports that show employee expenses right there alongside overall expenses and revenue...

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 8:18 am 
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Vindicarre wrote:
Sigh. Please, show my ignorant *** how you arrived at your destination.

The underlying proposition is that wages have been stagnant for 95 years.
The conspiracy would be that all the non-union employers have conspired to keep wages at the level they were in 1915, despite increases in production etc. It's not as if anyone has ever looked at corporate reports that show employee expenses right there alongside overall expenses and revenue...


I apologize, I reread the article and am mistaken. Wages have not been stagnant for 95 years. They have been stagnant since 1988.

Quote:
In 1988, the income of an average American taxpayer was $33,400, adjusted for inflation. Fast forward 20 years, and not much had changed: The average income was still just $33,000 in 2008, according to IRS data.


Big misstatement on my part and I do apologize for it. That said the same premise I presented in my arguments hold true for a shorter timespan.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 10:16 am 
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Hopwin wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
Sigh. Please, show my ignorant *** how you arrived at your destination.

The underlying proposition is that wages have been stagnant for 95 years.
The conspiracy would be that all the non-union employers have conspired to keep wages at the level they were in 1915, despite increases in production etc. It's not as if anyone has ever looked at corporate reports that show employee expenses right there alongside overall expenses and revenue...


I apologize, I reread the article and am mistaken. Wages have not been stagnant for 95 years. They have been stagnant since 1988.

Quote:
In 1988, the income of an average American taxpayer was $33,400, adjusted for inflation. Fast forward 20 years, and not much had changed: The average income was still just $33,000 in 2008, according to IRS data.


Big misstatement on my part and I do apologize for it. That said the same premise I presented in my arguments hold true for a shorter timespan.


Even if income has remained the same, the price for many consumer items has deflated. For example computers, tvs, phones, microwaves, washing machines, dryers, game systems, etc.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:25 am 
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And food? Housing? Energy costs? It's nice that a middling lifestyle has become less of a leap over subsistence, but if subsistence has increased, it's still easier to be poor, Lex.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:39 am 
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Kaffis Mark V wrote:
And food? Housing? Energy costs? It's nice that a middling lifestyle has become less of a leap over subsistence, but if subsistence has increased, it's still easier to be poor, Lex.


The poverty rate in the U.S. has been relatively steady for the last few decades, and has declined since 1950. If you look even more historically, it's been a continual downward trend. Also life expectancy in the U.S. increases 0.25 years every year.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:43 am 
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Lex:

I'm afraid your last source is not credible on this matter. I'll let you figure out why.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:18 pm 
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Lex,

You are correct in terms of the graph. However, "poverty" is not an obvious term, but is instead defined. So, adjusting the "poverty level" affects the rates. If I drop the poverty level from $20k to $15k, then the poverty rate drops, and your graph would show a reduction.

It doesn't mean people are better off.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:28 pm 
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Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Lex,

You are correct in terms of the graph. However, "poverty" is not an obvious term, but is instead defined. So, adjusting the "poverty level" affects the rates. If I drop the poverty level from $20k to $15k, then the poverty rate drops, and your graph would show a reduction.

It doesn't mean people are better off.


Then show your sources.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:29 pm 
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Is it like how the Onion solved obesity, by reclassifying obese as over 400? :)

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Quick observation: the decline in poverty from the mid-90s and the upswing beginning in 2000 appear to match up quite nicely with the rise and fall of the tech bubble, with the accelerated increase coinciding with the housing bubble bursting.

Moral of the story: Easy come, easy go.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:34 pm 
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Lonedar wrote:
Quick observation: the decline in poverty from the mid-90s and the upswing beginning in 2000 appear to match up quite nicely with the rise and fall of the tech bubble, with the accelerated increase coinciding with the housing bubble bursting.

Moral of the story: Easy come, easy go.


The tech bubble hasn't fallen.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:03 pm 
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Lex Luthor wrote:
Lonedar wrote:
Quick observation: the decline in poverty from the mid-90s and the upswing beginning in 2000 appear to match up quite nicely with the rise and fall of the tech bubble, with the accelerated increase coinciding with the housing bubble bursting.

Moral of the story: Easy come, easy go.


The tech bubble hasn't fallen.


I should clarify...I meant the "dot.com" bubble.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:16 pm 
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And now the Indiana Democrats are in hiding. Anyone noticing a theme?

http://www.indystar.com/article/2011022 ... stop-votes

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:19 pm 
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Lex Luthor wrote:
Arathain Kelvar wrote:
Lex,

You are correct in terms of the graph. However, "poverty" is not an obvious term, but is instead defined. So, adjusting the "poverty level" affects the rates. If I drop the poverty level from $20k to $15k, then the poverty rate drops, and your graph would show a reduction.

It doesn't mean people are better off.


Then show your sources.


Sources of what, exactly? That the poverty level is defined? That adjusting the poverty level definition could affect the rates?


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:02 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
Vindicarre wrote:
Sigh. Please, show my ignorant *** how you arrived at your destination.

The underlying proposition is that wages have been stagnant for 95 years.
The conspiracy would be that all the non-union employers have conspired to keep wages at the level they were in 1915, despite increases in production etc. It's not as if anyone has ever looked at corporate reports that show employee expenses right there alongside overall expenses and revenue...


I apologize, I reread the article and am mistaken. Wages have not been stagnant for 95 years. They have been stagnant since 1988.

Quote:
In 1988, the income of an average American taxpayer was $33,400, adjusted for inflation. Fast forward 20 years, and not much had changed: The average income was still just $33,000 in 2008, according to IRS data.


Big misstatement on my part and I do apologize for it. That said the same premise I presented in my arguments hold true for a shorter timespan.


Thank you for your candor, but the quote still doesn't back up your (revised) statement. Taken at face value, the line "the income of an average American taxpayer" has too many variables to show that wages have been "stagnant". How does one arrive at "the average american taxpayer"? Do they take all people who file tax returns and average them? Do they only take full time workers who file a tax return and average them? Do they only use data from those who end up paying taxes after they file a return? The most reasonable (to me) is that they take the information from all tax returns and average them. This wouldn't give a picture of what the average wage is, it would give a picture of what the average of all wage earners (full time, part time, summer job...) would be.
Further, taking two data points on a continuum and saying that wages have been stagnant for 20+ years is really poor analysis. For example, did wages remain the same in the early 2000's as they were prior, or are now?

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but what you are using to back up your statement isn't sufficient for the task. Even looking at the graph presented in the article you're quoting shows fluctuations in income; taking into account a $100,000 spread in that narrow of a tier (1/4" ?), visible fluctuations show that the income level is not stagnant.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:55 pm 
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Vindicarre wrote:
Thank you for your candor, but the quote still doesn't back up your (revised) statement. Taken at face value, the line "the income of an average American taxpayer" has too many variables to show that wages have been "stagnant". How does one arrive at "the average american taxpayer"? Do they take all people who file tax returns and average them? Do they only take full time workers who file a tax return and average them? Do they only use data from those who end up paying taxes after they file a return? The most reasonable (to me) is that they take the information from all tax returns and average them. This wouldn't give a picture of what the average wage is, it would give a picture of what the average of all wage earners (full time, part time, summer job...) would be.
Further, taking two data points on a continuum and saying that wages have been stagnant for 20+ years is really poor analysis. For example, did wages remain the same in the early 2000's as they were prior, or are now?

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but what you are using to back up your statement isn't sufficient for the task. Even looking at the graph presented in the article you're quoting shows fluctuations in income; taking into account a $100,000 spread in that narrow of a tier (1/4" ?), visible fluctuations show that the income level is not stagnant.


Fair enough, I'll step away from the average since it is not clearly defined and can have multiple meanings. Instead I will switch to the median. Which using Census Bureau numbers is defined as:
Quote:
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, "household median income" is defined as "the amount which divides the income distribution into two equal groups, half having income above that amount, and half having income below that amount."


http://www.davemanuel.com/median-household-income.php

Looking at the median numbers, the picture is a bit brighter but still unpleasant (sorry I don't know how to do tables in phpbb):
Quote:
Year No. of Households Nominal $ Inflation Adjusted $
2009 117,538,000 $49,777 $49,777
2008 117,181,000 $50,303 $50,303
2007 116,783,000 $50,233 $52,163
2006 116,011,000 $48,201 $51,473
2005 114,384,000 $46,326 $51,093
2004 113,343,000 $44,334 $50,535
2003 112,000,000 $43,318 $50,711
2002 111,278,000 $42,409 $50,756
2001 109,297,000 $42,228 $51,356
2000 108,209,000 $41,990 $52,500
1999 106,434,000 $40,696 $52,587
1998 103,874,000 $38,885 $51,295
1997 102,528,000 $37,005 $49,497
1996 101,018,000 $35,492 $48,499
1995 99,627,000 $34,076 $47,803
1994 98,990,000 $32,264 $46,351
1993 97,107,000 $31,241 $45,839
1992 96,426,000 $30,636 $46,063
1991 95,669,000 $30,126 $46,445
1990 94,312,000 $29,943 $47,818
1989 93,347,000 $28,906 $48,463
1988 92,830,000 $27,225 $47,614
1987 91,124,000 $26,061 $47,251
1986 89,479,000 $24,897 $46,665
1985 88,458,000 $23,618 $45,069
1984 86,789,000 $22,415 $44,242
1983 85,407,000 $20,885 $42,910
1982 83,918,000 $20,171 $43,212
1981 83,527,000 $19,074 $43,328
1980 82,368,000 $17,710 $44,059
1979 80,776,000 $16,461 $45,498
1978 77,330,000 $15,064 $45,625
1977 76,030,000 $13,572 $43,925
1976 74,142,000 $12,686 $43,649
1975 72,867,000 $11,800 $42,936


Which in plain English (and addressing your concerns about bubbles, wars, and other financial turmoil) translates to:

Quote:
The U.S. Census Bureau currently publishes household median income and household mean income data from 1975 to 2008.

The U.S. Census Bureau includes the information in "current dollars" (not adjusted for inflation) and "2008 dollars" (adjusted for inflation).

It's interesting to look at the trend of median household income in the United States from 1975 until now.

From 1975 to 2008, you have had multiple wars, multiple recessions, multiple unemployment rate spikes of over 10%, the greatest economic boom in the history of the United States, the greatest real estate boom in the history of the United States, stagflation, multiple presidents, etc. The list goes on and on.

It's interesting to look at, between 1975 and 2008, how the median household income in the United States has fluctuated.

In 1975, the inflation-adjusted median household income in the United States was $42,936.

In 2008, the inflation-adjusted median household income in the United States was $50,303.

That means that, from 1975 until 2008, the median household income in the United States has increased 17%.

When you factor in the 2009 numbers, the percentage is even smaller.

It shouldn't surprise anyone that recessions result in lower median household incomes.

Median household income in the United States dropped in 1979, and continued to trend lower until 1984.

From there, median household income slowly trended higher, only to take a breather in the early '90s (Gulf War, recession).

After that, median household income surged higher, peaking at $52,587 in 1999 (the height of the dot com bubble).

When the dot com bubble popped, median household income numbers dropped in the United States. Couple that with 9/11 and the recession that followed, and median household income numbers dropped for five years straight (2000 to 2004).

In 2007, median household income surged to $52,163 before dropping off a cliff in 2008.

So what can we take from this data? A few things, including:

-median household income numbers are about the same now as they were in 1997

-median household income numbers will very likely continue to trend lower over the next 3-4 years, even though the "Great Recession" has technically come to an end


Graphically this is portrayed as:
Image

Which while trending upwards clearly shows the spikes and valleys you referenced.

I think that several interesting things can be inferred when you consider the median income (as defined by the publisher) is the 50% divide line for the population. If you take into account that the income gap in the US is expanding the chart should show an upward trend in the numbers as a result of more wealth being accumulated by the upper 50% of the population. But instead you see big dips and a slightly upward trend of less than 1% per year which indicates that gains at the top are very nearly being offset by less money in the lower 50%.

However, my opinions aside, if you take the rosiest comparison possible from the data by comparing the lowest wage on that table (1975) 42.9K and the peak (1999) 52.5K you get a rise in wages of 22% over a 24 year span when adjusted for inflation. But we know that the CPI excludes "volatile" commodities such as food and energy prices. So taking a quick look:
During that span the price of oil:
Image
The price of food:
Image

So food has nearly tripled in 20 years. Oil has nearly doubled from $49.42 (in 2011 $) to $94.06 (as of 3:30PM, 02/22/2011).

Given those facts, what are your inferences? I am genuinely interested and if I've taken a misstep anywhere welcome the feedback :)

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 6:22 pm 
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Lol, wages will always be the same if adjusted for inflation. You don't deserve more than your market share of labor...

Energy was extremely expensive in the medieval ages compared to now. We can cut down trees nowadays so fast with our equipment. Back then you had to manually spend all day on just a few trees. People also had to manually mine with pick axes... horrible times.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 8:23 am 
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Uncle Fester wrote:
Is it like how the Onion solved obesity, by reclassifying obese as over 400? :)

Meh, I'm technically obese with a 35" waist...


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 8:37 am 
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Timmit wrote:
Uncle Fester wrote:
Is it like how the Onion solved obesity, by reclassifying obese as over 400? :)

Meh, I'm technically obese with a 35" waist...

It's even worse. I'm on the border of obese with a 31" to 32" waist. Keep in mind this is after I lost 60 pounds. BMI sucks for determining obesity rates. It's moderately good if you want a rough idea where your ideal weight should be.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:18 am 
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Ienan wrote:
Timmit wrote:
Uncle Fester wrote:
Is it like how the Onion solved obesity, by reclassifying obese as over 400? :)

Meh, I'm technically obese with a 35" waist...

It's even worse. I'm on the border of obese with a 31" to 32" waist. Keep in mind this is after I lost 60 pounds. BMI sucks for determining obesity rates. It's moderately good if you want a rough idea where your ideal weight should be.

BMI is a ridiculous arbitrary chart. How many bodybuilders are obese under the BMI? Bring back that thing where they pinched your fat with calipers I say :)

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