Vindicarre wrote:
Thank you for your candor, but the quote still doesn't back up your (revised) statement. Taken at face value, the line "the income of an average American taxpayer" has too many variables to show that wages have been "stagnant". How does one arrive at "the average american taxpayer"? Do they take all people who file tax returns and average them? Do they only take full time workers who file a tax return and average them? Do they only use data from those who end up paying taxes after they file a return? The most reasonable (to me) is that they take the information from all tax returns and average them. This wouldn't give a picture of what the average wage is, it would give a picture of what the average of all wage earners (full time, part time, summer job...) would be.
Further, taking two data points on a continuum and saying that wages have been stagnant for 20+ years is really poor analysis. For example, did wages remain the same in the early 2000's as they were prior, or are now?
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but what you are using to back up your statement isn't sufficient for the task. Even looking at the graph presented in the article you're quoting shows fluctuations in income; taking into account a $100,000 spread in that narrow of a tier (1/4" ?), visible fluctuations show that the income level is not stagnant.
Fair enough, I'll step away from the average since it is not clearly defined and can have multiple meanings. Instead I will switch to the median. Which using Census Bureau numbers is defined as:
Quote:
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, "household median income" is defined as "the amount which divides the income distribution into two equal groups, half having income above that amount, and half having income below that amount."
http://www.davemanuel.com/median-household-income.phpLooking at the median numbers, the picture is a bit brighter but still unpleasant (sorry I don't know how to do tables in phpbb):
Quote:
Year No. of Households Nominal $ Inflation Adjusted $
2009 117,538,000 $49,777 $49,777
2008 117,181,000 $50,303 $50,303
2007 116,783,000 $50,233 $52,163
2006 116,011,000 $48,201 $51,473
2005 114,384,000 $46,326 $51,093
2004 113,343,000 $44,334 $50,535
2003 112,000,000 $43,318 $50,711
2002 111,278,000 $42,409 $50,756
2001 109,297,000 $42,228 $51,356
2000 108,209,000 $41,990 $52,500
1999 106,434,000 $40,696 $52,587
1998 103,874,000 $38,885 $51,295
1997 102,528,000 $37,005 $49,497
1996 101,018,000 $35,492 $48,499
1995 99,627,000 $34,076 $47,803
1994 98,990,000 $32,264 $46,351
1993 97,107,000 $31,241 $45,839
1992 96,426,000 $30,636 $46,063
1991 95,669,000 $30,126 $46,445
1990 94,312,000 $29,943 $47,818
1989 93,347,000 $28,906 $48,463
1988 92,830,000 $27,225 $47,614
1987 91,124,000 $26,061 $47,251
1986 89,479,000 $24,897 $46,665
1985 88,458,000 $23,618 $45,069
1984 86,789,000 $22,415 $44,242
1983 85,407,000 $20,885 $42,910
1982 83,918,000 $20,171 $43,212
1981 83,527,000 $19,074 $43,328
1980 82,368,000 $17,710 $44,059
1979 80,776,000 $16,461 $45,498
1978 77,330,000 $15,064 $45,625
1977 76,030,000 $13,572 $43,925
1976 74,142,000 $12,686 $43,649
1975 72,867,000 $11,800 $42,936
Which in plain English (and addressing your concerns about bubbles, wars, and other financial turmoil) translates to:
Quote:
The U.S. Census Bureau currently publishes household median income and household mean income data from 1975 to 2008.
The U.S. Census Bureau includes the information in "current dollars" (not adjusted for inflation) and "2008 dollars" (adjusted for inflation).
It's interesting to look at the trend of median household income in the United States from 1975 until now.
From 1975 to 2008, you have had multiple wars, multiple recessions, multiple unemployment rate spikes of over 10%, the greatest economic boom in the history of the United States, the greatest real estate boom in the history of the United States, stagflation, multiple presidents, etc. The list goes on and on.
It's interesting to look at, between 1975 and 2008, how the median household income in the United States has fluctuated.
In 1975, the inflation-adjusted median household income in the United States was $42,936.
In 2008, the inflation-adjusted median household income in the United States was $50,303.
That means that, from 1975 until 2008, the median household income in the United States has increased 17%.
When you factor in the 2009 numbers, the percentage is even smaller.
It shouldn't surprise anyone that recessions result in lower median household incomes.
Median household income in the United States dropped in 1979, and continued to trend lower until 1984.
From there, median household income slowly trended higher, only to take a breather in the early '90s (Gulf War, recession).
After that, median household income surged higher, peaking at $52,587 in 1999 (the height of the dot com bubble).
When the dot com bubble popped, median household income numbers dropped in the United States. Couple that with 9/11 and the recession that followed, and median household income numbers dropped for five years straight (2000 to 2004).
In 2007, median household income surged to $52,163 before dropping off a cliff in 2008.
So what can we take from this data? A few things, including:
-median household income numbers are about the same now as they were in 1997
-median household income numbers will very likely continue to trend lower over the next 3-4 years, even though the "Great Recession" has technically come to an end
Graphically this is portrayed as:
Which while trending upwards clearly shows the spikes and valleys you referenced.
I think that several interesting things can be inferred when you consider the median income (as defined by the publisher) is the 50% divide line for the population. If you take into account that the income gap in the US is expanding the chart should show an upward trend in the numbers as a result of more wealth being accumulated by the upper 50% of the population. But instead you see big dips and a slightly upward trend of less than 1% per year which indicates that gains at the top are very nearly being offset by less money in the lower 50%.
However, my opinions aside, if you take the rosiest comparison possible from the data by comparing the lowest wage on that table (1975) 42.9K and the peak (1999) 52.5K you get a rise in wages of 22% over a 24 year span when adjusted for inflation. But we know that the CPI excludes "volatile" commodities such as food and energy prices. So taking a quick look:
During that span the price of oil:
The price of food:
So food has nearly tripled in 20 years. Oil has nearly doubled from $49.42 (in 2011 $) to $94.06 (as of 3:30PM, 02/22/2011).
Given those facts, what are your inferences? I am genuinely interested and if I've taken a misstep anywhere welcome the feedback