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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 4:49 pm 
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RangerDave wrote:
Kaffis Mark V wrote:
When things happen rapidly, it's usually a correction robo-trading programs hitting predetermined buy/sell prices and driving the market into a volatile frenzy while the human analysts run around like frightened sheep trying to figure out what the f*ck is going on.

Fixed that for you. ;)


Yes, but that only took about a day and 1/2 to correct itself, as things normalized and information was collected on what actually happened.

And to stay on topic, my post speaks to Xequcal's disagreement with me over US debt and the bond market.

Additionally, I wish you'd all stop quoting Lex in this thread. I don't do stupid anymore.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 4:54 pm 
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Kaffis Mark V wrote:
When things happen rapidly, it's usually a correction.

Fast changes in the market are changes in perceived value that resonate with lots of people. That is far more likely to be the case when the new information paints a more likely and sensible picture than the one that was previously driving the price levels.


It could also be an over-correction, and maybe the market is undervalued. My point is that you can skew the numbers however you want to fit your perceptions. The fact is that Rynar would be complaining about the economy regardless of what the numbers are.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 4:57 pm 
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Rynar wrote:
Yes, but that only took about a day and 1/2 to correct itself, as things normalized and information was collected on what actually happened.

Yeah, I was just joking around. I think robo-trading is problematic, but with or without it, an S&P downgrade would cause the market to drop.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 5:01 pm 
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If Rynar lived from the year 1900 to 2011, he would be complaining the entire time about "socialism" and "inflation" and "the gold standard", even as the standards of life improve in every way. Automobiles, modern medicine, the Internet, flight, television, cinema, video games, food variety, smart phones, laptops, etc. Just imagine what's next. But all the negative nancies here think the apocalypse is right around the corner, that everything is going to get worse. You can cry about liberty as well, but that's equivalent to living alone in the forest with the squirrels.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:15 pm 
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Rynar wrote:
Yes, but that only took about a day and 1/2 to correct itself, as things normalized and information was collected on what actually happened.

And to stay on topic, my post speaks to Xequcal's disagreement with me over US debt and the bond market.

Additionally, I wish you'd all stop quoting Lex in this thread. I don't do stupid anymore.


You said that the US dollar was "worthless." That's obviously not true. Now, you could say the US dollar is decreasing in value, but that's incredibly obvious.

What's much scarier is everyone all over the world rushing to buy more precious metals, because that doesn't just mean the dollar is crashing, it means every currency is. (or they'd be buying it instead)


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:16 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
Rynar wrote:
Yes, but that only took about a day and 1/2 to correct itself, as things normalized and information was collected on what actually happened.

And to stay on topic, my post speaks to Xequcal's disagreement with me over US debt and the bond market.

Additionally, I wish you'd all stop quoting Lex in this thread. I don't do stupid anymore.


You said that the US dollar was "worthless." That's obviously not true. Now, you could say the US dollar is decreasing in value, but that's incredibly obvious.

What's much scarier is everyone all over the world rushing to buy more precious metals, because that doesn't just mean the dollar is crashing, it means every currency is. (or they'd be buying it instead)


Ratings agencies and the Fed usually lag far behind real market forces.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:44 pm 
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What currency has value, then, if the US dollar is worthless? The only countries without massive government deficits are the oil exporters.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 10:47 pm 
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Xequecal wrote:
What currency has value, then, if the US dollar is worthless? The only countries without massive government deficits are the oil exporters.


I'm just letting this resonate for awhile.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 10:53 pm 
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Ooooh ooooh *raises hand* ooooh ooooh

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 2:16 pm 
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Rynar wrote:
I assume you've all seen to market plunge on open today. I assume you all also know it was due to Standard & Poor's lowering of US debt outlook to "negative".

And it's back up again, just like Monday never happened.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 2:44 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
Rynar wrote:
I assume you've all seen to market plunge on open today. I assume you all also know it was due to Standard & Poor's lowering of US debt outlook to "negative".

And it's back up again, just like Monday never happened.


Well obviously. Although the bond market certainly hasn't recovered, which is the point of my posts in this thread. Do you need me to explain how the bond markets works to you?

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 3:50 pm 
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Rynar wrote:
Taskiss wrote:
Rynar wrote:
I assume you've all seen to market plunge on open today. I assume you all also know it was due to Standard & Poor's lowering of US debt outlook to "negative".

And it's back up again, just like Monday never happened.


Well obviously. Although the bond market certainly hasn't recovered, which is the point of my posts in this thread. Do you need me to explain how the bond markets works to you?


Sure! Right after that explain what "moving the goal posts" means...

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 4:35 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
Rynar wrote:
Taskiss wrote:
And it's back up again, just like Monday never happened.


Well obviously. Although the bond market certainly hasn't recovered, which is the point of my posts in this thread. Do you need me to explain how the bond markets works to you?


Sure! Right after that explain what "moving the goal posts" means...


Dude, I'm not the one shifting the goal posts. I've been talking about debt quality the entire thread.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 4:55 pm 
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Your doom and gloom over the specific events of Monday have failed to make whatever impact you seemed to want them to make. The world didn't end, the market recovered it's losses in hours. You need to replace the crystal ball.

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OVER the past few days a spirited debate over the status of the American government, and in particular its ability to borrow, has rumbled around Washington. This debate was obviously triggered by S&P's announcement Monday morning that it was cutting its outlook on American government debt to "negative", signaling that there is a one in three chance of a downgrade in America's credit rating by 2013. I found the attention to this statement mystifying. S&P didn't say anything about America's debt situation that wasn't already well known. The market reaction has been about as benign as one could hope for; relative to the Friday close, equities are higher, bond yields are lower, and the dollar is basically flat. Markets shrugged.

A lot of pundits found it very difficult to accept that markets shrugged. They seemed to be labouring to explain that the S&P's warning represented the beginning, at long last, of an American debt reckoning. I can understand this impulse. America's debt situation is not sustainable, and something must eventually be done about it. But Congress, which would be the institution to do the something that needs doing, is unlikely to take difficult deficit cutting decisions unless its feet are being held to the fire by bond markets. And so the fact that bond markets steadfastly refuse to hold Congress' feet to the fire is frustrating for those who'd like to see the government budget put on a sustainable path.


http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexch ... ent_debt_7

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Last edited by Taskiss on Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 4:56 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
Your doom and gloom over the specific events of Monday have failed to make whatever impact you seemed to want them to make. The world didn't end, the market recovered it's losses in hours. You need to replace the crystal ball.


Even if the world got a lot better, Rynar would claim it's an economic bubble.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 4:58 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
Your doom and gloom over the specific events of Monday have failed to make whatever impact you seemed to want them to make. The world didn't end, the market recovered it's losses in hours. You need to replace the crystal ball.


You have failed so epically at reading comprehension, and understanding of the topic being discussed, that it isn't even worth continuing the conversation with you that is what you have actually taken away from my posts in this thread.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:04 pm 
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Rynar wrote:
Taskiss wrote:
Your doom and gloom over the specific events of Monday have failed to make whatever impact you seemed to want them to make. The world didn't end, the market recovered it's losses in hours. You need to replace the crystal ball.


You have failed so epically at reading comprehension, and understanding of the topic being discussed, that it isn't even worth continuing the conversation with you that is what you have actually taken away from my posts in this thread.

When are you going to learn that your "conversation" isn't worth continuing with anyone?

Except others like yourself that feel the end is nigh...

Quote:
American debt is not out of control, in other words, and it's fundamentally affordable, and there are good reasons to expect that its creditors are prepared to give America a lot of room to get its spending under control before giving up on dollars and Treasuries.

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Last edited by Taskiss on Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:05 pm 
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Taskiss wrote:
Rynar wrote:
Taskiss wrote:
Your doom and gloom over the specific events of Monday have failed to make whatever impact you seemed to want them to make. The world didn't end, the market recovered it's losses in hours. You need to replace the crystal ball.


You have failed so epically at reading comprehension, and understanding of the topic being discussed, that it isn't even worth continuing the conversation with you that is what you have actually taken away from my posts in this thread.

When are you going to learn that your "conversation" isn't worth continuing with anyone?

Except others like yourself that feel the end is nigh...


You might be the dumbest smart guy I've ever met. Frustratingly so.

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19 Yet she became more and more promiscuous as she recalled the days of her youth, when she was a prostitute in Egypt. 20 There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses.

Ezekiel 23:19-20 


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:45 pm 
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Rynar wrote:
You might be the dumbest smart guy I've ever met. Frustratingly so.


Come on, man, you're better than this. He's addressing your points, staying on topic, and you're just declaring him "dumb" and having poor reading comprehension without explanation.

Fail.

Explain why his source is incorrect.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 6:24 pm 
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Ohhh economics:
China ditching more US bonds:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/it%E2% ... us-dollars

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 8:43 pm 
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No, that article shows nothing. China says it need to reduce its levels of foreign reserves and the hacks that run that website automatically assume they'll be selling nothing but US Treasuries. Come on, if CNN pulled "reporting" like this out of their asses you'd be all over them for it.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:21 am 
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15% of U.S. mortgages are currently in foreclosure.

27% of U.S. mortgages have negative equity.

Housing prices have reached 40 year lows when adjusted to 1958 dollars.

Housing prices continue to decline. Mainstream economists have started throwing around the "D-word" with regard to the house market, although it's following a fairly predictable pattern and isn't going to normalize any time soon.

By the end of the year, some of the outlying estimates have 60% of mortgages reaching the negative equity point. I'm more inclined to put that number in the 40% range, because it's going to take at least a decade for the housing market to actually bottom out, if it does.

There's a little over 600,000 acres of unfinished or abandoned residential development according to some conservative estimates; some of these developments have been idle since the Stagflation Recession of the 1970s.

Employment gains are nominal, most likely even fabricated because the current Department of Labor shifts goalposts faster than they put out reports. The safe estimate on discouraged workers (that is people who have stopped looking for work or who will never be employable again) is 16-18 million Americas between 18 and 50.

Real inflation is by all accounts in the double digits as food prices and energy costs continue to rise almost solely because of government imposed shifts in the pricing curves. In fact, the so-called volatile markets have been pushed so far away from their natural supply/demand relationships that it probably doesn't even make sense to study them anymore: they are not natural markets.

And, yet, we have people screaming up and down that people are Doom Sayers and Naysayers ...

But, I'll just repeat what I've been saying for the last six months.

1. The United States government has a vested interest in lying to you about the economy.

2. Agents of the United States government have a vested interest in lying to you about the economy.

3. The market manipulations, intrusions, and other financial fiascoes of the U.S. Government during the last part of the Bush Administration and all of the Obama Administration would be criminal if performed by any private citizen.

4. We're in a depression, and it's not getting better any time soon.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:44 am 
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Khross, what effect, if any, do you think it would have if a massive protest against the Fed and our monetary policy were to take place by having everyone burn $1? It would be symbolic of course and you'd never get everyone to do it but if the money pool shrank by ~$350M would policymakers respond?

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:54 am 
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It would have 0 effect on our government's fiscal policy.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:22 am 
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They don't need physical currency in circulation Hopwin - most of the dollars out there now are virtual - created, and traded electronically.

If we were to End the Fed (protest in Philly this weekend!) it would jumpstart the collapse since most nations would assume we would default on our debt. It would also stop the situation from getting worse and start our recovery.

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